Day Zero: Will Gaza War Push Arabs and Muslims to Support Trump Against Democrats?

With only hours remaining until the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, the Arab and Muslim communities in America face deep uncertainty and division over their votes, potentially diminishing their impact, as they make up about one percent of the electorate.

Driven by outrage over the Gaza war, some voters aim to punish the Democratic Party and oust Vice President Kamala Harris. In contrast, others reluctantly support her as the lesser evil to prevent the election of a more extreme candidate, Donald Trump.

Estimates within the community indicate significant division this year between votes for Trump, Harris, the Green Party candidate, and those boycotting the election, potentially fracturing their vote and, for the first time, leaving it less decisive.

Trump has ramped up his outreach efforts, promising to end the Gaza war—albeit without specifics—winning over some Arab and Muslim supporters through events held specifically for this purpose. Harris, in turn, made last-minute statements about ending the war in an attempt to appeal to these communities.

You Are Not Welcome, But Vote for Us!

Trump, who had previously ignored the Arab and Muslim votes, along with other minorities who once helped elect former President Barack Obama, is now making overtures to them. He argues that Biden’s policies dismantled the “coalition” that unified the party and helped Obama succeed.

But with polls now neck-and-neck, showing roughly 50 percent support for both Trump and Harris, Trump is capitalizing on Arab and Muslim frustration with Biden’s Gaza policy, courting their votes, which make up nearly one percent of the total.

“I'm thrilled to have the support of these rather respectable leaders,” Trump said as he invited them to the stage at a campaign rally in Michigan on October 26, 2024, and later stated that Arab and Muslim voters “could swing the election one way or the other.”

This prompted Michael Gold, a political correspondent for The New York Times (NYT) reporting on the campaigns of Donald J. Trump and other candidates in the 2024 presidential election, to say, “Trump, who once proposed a Muslim registry, now courts their votes.”

In the 2016 election, which Trump won, he told NBC News he “would certainly implement” a database system tracking Muslims in the United States.

“I would certainly implement that. Absolutely,” Trump said in Newton, Iowa, in between campaign town halls.

“There should be a lot of systems, beyond databases,” he added. “We should have a lot of systems.”

When asked whether Muslims would be legally obligated to sign into the database, Trump responded, “They have to be — they have to be.”

This sparked widespread controversy, as Trump’s suggestion recalled the Nazi-era practice of registering Jews on quasi-criminal lists for tracking.

“So it was striking to see him on Saturday at a rally in suburban Detroit celebrating endorsements from a handful of Muslim and Arab American leaders,” said Michael Gold, NYT correspondent.

During his first month as president in 2017, Trump issued an executive order banning entry from seven Muslim-majority countries for 90 days—Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen (which Biden later overturned upon taking office in 2021).

But in a tight race, Trump and his team are actively working to attract Arab American and Muslim voters who may be dissatisfied with the Democratic Party, particularly due to President Joe Biden’s stance on the Israeli genocide in Gaza and certain social issues. This support is seen as particularly crucial in Michigan, a battleground state with a significant Arab American and Muslim population.

Trump was notably pleased when Belal Alzuhiry, an imam from the Detroit area, said in front of hundreds at Suburban Collection Showplace, “We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace.” 

“We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine.”

However, some Arabs and Muslims, including U.S.-based journalist Samar Jarrah, emphasized that the Muslims seen supporting Trump at a campaign event “do not represent all Muslims or all Arabs,” adding that “the issue is far more complex than a single photo, speech, or statement.”

Muslim political commentator Hussein Ibish wrote on The Atlantic on October 30, 2024, describing American Muslims’ support for Trump as “an act of self-sabotage,” emphasizing, “A second Trump term would be dramatically worse for our communities than a Harris presidency.”

Trump’s victory would be “shocking, but hardly surprising. It’s shocking because Trump’s stated policies—on Palestine, on political freedom, and on the very presence of Muslims in America—are antithetical to so much of what most of these voters believe in.”

“It’s unsurprising because we Arab and Muslim Americans have a long tradition of merciless political self-sabotage,” added Ibish.

Although Trump has not presented specific plans to end the wars in Ukraine or the intensifying conflict in the Middle East, his campaign suggests that he will bring these conflicts to an end.

At a campaign rally with Muslim and Arab voters, Trump said Muslim and Arab voters in Michigan and across the country want to end endless wars and bring peace back to the Middle East. That’s all they want.

He also posted on X that if he returns to the White House, he will “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon.” He further promised to end the war in Gaza if elected, aiming to restore peace in the Middle East.

Trump is seeking the support of Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan—a state he won in 2016 but lost in 2020.

On October 28, 2024, MSNBC analyst Ayman Mohyeldin questioned the shift in Arab and Muslim support toward Trump, probing the underlying reasons. “How did we get to a point where some Arab American and Muslim American voters are backing this man?” he wondered, comparing this support to the backing President Biden received in 2020.

The analyst expressed concern about how they could support someone who has made statements about “Islam hating America,” repeatedly targeted Arab and Muslim lawmakers such as Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, and falsely claimed to have witnessed thousands of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating the 9/11 attacks.

To understand this shift, Mohyeldin referenced Shadi Hamid’s October 22, 2024, piece in The Washington Post, which attributes that to “the mood [that] has become dark and despairing” among Arabs and Muslims across America.

Hamid said, “They see how the Democratic Party has ignored the preferences of its own members, 77% of whom believe the United States should not send weapons to Israel. Leading Democrats acknowledge the devastation inflicted on Gaza but in the same breath appear unwilling to do anything about it.”

The columnist for The Washington Post argued that relations between Arab and Muslim Americans and the Democratic Party have reached a breaking point. He pointed to recent polling as evidence that a majority are unlikely to vote for Kamala Harris.

Analyses from American media and research centers suggest that some American Muslims appear ready to back Trump after his pledge to end the war in Gaza and global conflicts.

American analysts now speculate that the Gaza war, along with family and economic issues, could shift the balance in Trump’s favor.

‘Harris Begs Them’

As the Gaza war has become a “curse” for Biden, it continues to haunt Kamala Harris as his partner in office. With Israeli massacres and destruction ongoing, backed by unwavering U.S. support and continual arms deals—including depth bombs that have killed hundreds of Palestinians—Harris finds herself under increasing scrutiny.

According to Wa’el Alzayat, the CEO of Emgage Action, a group aimed at boosting the Muslim American vote, Harris did not make any promises, but told them “that she also wants the war to end and that she will do all she can to work in this regard.”

“She pledged to work with our community, include our community, and [said] that she completely understands what we’re saying. She is hopeful that if she wins, she’ll be able to deliver on all of this once she’s president,” Alzayat told CNN.

At an October 6, 2024, conference in Michigan, Arab American leaders pressed Harris to clarify her stance on Gaza, urging her to break from current policies, which they said they disagreed with. She did not respond directly.

The pressure continued. During her campaign speech in Kalamazoo, Michigan, an Arab protester interrupted, chanting, “No more war on Gaza, stop sending weapons to Israel.”

Meanwhile, the Uncommitted movement—a coalition of Arabs, Muslims, and other minorities—announced they would not vote for either Harris or Trump, opting for third-party candidates instead.

This movement reportedly cost Biden half a million votes in the Democratic primaries this year even before Biden stepped aside for Harris.

At Harris’s October 28, 2024, rally in Michigan—a state with a high population of Arab and Muslim Americans—pro-Palestinian protesters gathered, chanting, “Israel bombs, Kamala funds [..] How many kids will you kill today?” to highlight the ongoing violence against Palestinians fueled by U.S. weapons.

Amid these protests, Harris avoided scheduling meetings with Muslim communities. Her campaign also removed Muslim activists, such as Ahmad Ghanim, a former Democratic candidate in Michigan who had garnered 15,000 votes, from her team.

Arab and Muslim activists add further reasons for their opposition to Harris, including what they see as avoidable mistakes by the Democratic Party, such as the decision not to allow any Palestinian American to speak at the party’s convention.

In an interview regarding the Israeli genocide in Gaza, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi simply stated, as if shrugging her shoulders, “Death is sad.”

She then urged Arab Americans to be grateful that the Democrats protected them when Donald Trump proposed a travel ban on Muslims to the U.S.

The organizers of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) dealt harshly with pro-Palestine supporters, shutting out advocates for Gaza. Some were forcibly removed from the stage and “hit on the head,” despite some being delegates for Harris in various American cities, including a Muslim woman, according to The Intercept on August 20, 2024.

Harris and her Democratic Party revealed a troubling hypocrisy regarding the Palestinian cause by reiterating claims of “Israel's right to defend itself,” which served to “justify” the ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza, ensuring military and political support for “Israel.” 

This was reflected in the DNC platform's emphasis on America's “ironclad” commitment to “Israel.” The Harris/Walz ticket, reads the platform, is dedicated “to Israel’s security, its qualitative military edge, its right to defend itself.”

All of this strongly raised the likelihood of her losing millions of votes opposed to the Gaza war and significantly losing support from American Muslims and Arabs to Trump.

Previously, Muslim Women for Harris group which had supported her, decided to withdraw their endorsement due to her campaign's refusal to allow a Palestinian American speaker on stage at the party's convention, as per The Guardian.

Rima Mohammad, a delegate from Michigan and part of the Uncommitted, stated that Harris's speech at her nomination convention increased disappointment after the Democratic National Convention denied a Palestinian speaker the opportunity to address the audience, warning her that she will lose Michigan.

During another visit to the same city, which has a significant Arab and Muslim population and is considered crucial for her victory, Palestine supporters from the Uncommitted group interrupted Harris, asserting that they would not support anyone who supports genocide.

“Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide! We won’t vote for genocide,” they shouted.

Her response was simply, “You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I'm speaking,” 

Harris said with a long stare, drawing loud cheers from supporters in the crowd before chanting, “Not going back!.”

Many Americans saw this as “arrogance,” as it forced them to choose between accepting the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians or Trump’s victory. It suggested that those opposing the genocide should remain silent; otherwise, Trump would come out on top!

When Uncommitted suggested to Harris's campaign in August 2024 that a complete ban on U.S. arms deliveries to “Israel” be discussed, Harris’ national security advisor, Phil Gordon, later issued a statement saying that the presidential candidate opposes an arms embargo on “Israel.”

“Vice President Harris has been clear: She will always ensure Israel’s ability to defend itself against Iran and the terrorist groups it supports.”

“Harris does not support an arms embargo on Israel, but will continue to work to protect civilians in Gaza and uphold international humanitarian law,” Gordon said in the statement.

This likely led the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) to emphasize the importance of Harris’s campaign taking direct steps to rectify the situation, especially as Trump is reaching out to Muslim leaders and meeting with them directly.

‘Don't Vote for Trump’

Former President Barack Obama was compelled to intervene and appeal to Muslim voters, warning them of the dangers Trump posed if he won.

He addressed them at a campaign event, saying, “If you’re a Muslim American and you’re upset about what’s happening in the Middle East, why would you put your faith in somebody [Donald Trump] who passed a Muslim ban and repeatedly suggested that you aren’t part of our American community?”

This may explain why Islamic leaders have expressed their support for Harris, not out of love for her, but as the lesser of two evils, fearing Trump's potential presidency could threaten the Muslim community.

On October 7, 2024, 25 Muslim imams released an open letter of support for Harris, published by NBC News, highlighting the dangers posed by Trump.

In the letter, the imams emphasized the importance of logical thinking in voting decisions, arguing that supporting Harris is the best option to end the bloodshed in Gaza and Lebanon compared to other alternatives.

Additionally, a coalition of Palestinian, Arab, Muslim, and progressive community leaders in Arizona issued a statement regarding the presidential election, condemning those who advocate voting for Trump out of spite for Harris and Biden.

They stated that allowing the fascist Donald Trump to become president again would be the worst possible outcome for the Palestinian people.

Despite most American Muslims leaning toward the Democratic Party, an increasing number have begun to shift toward the Republican Party in recent elections.

American reports indicate rising concerns within the Democratic Party, as polls show Harris is stalled in her race against Trump. The coalition that supported Obama's winning campaigns—especially Black and Latino men—has weakened in its support for her.

Are Their Votes Significant?

A December 2023 analysis by The Conversation revealed that Muslim voters make up just over 1% of the U.S. population, based on 2017 census data.

However, they hold significant sway in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, which often determine presidential election outcomes due to their critical electoral votes and historically narrow margins.

In a previous CAIR poll among Muslim voters on August 29, 2024, 29.4% indicated they plan to support Harris, nearly tying her with Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Meanwhile, another poll conducted among religious and college-educated Muslim voters on October 4, 2024, found Harris's support at just 14% among this demographic.

This contrasts with a different survey by the Arab American Institute, which revealed that 42% of Arab Americans intended to vote for the Democratic candidate.

In any case, these figures fall far short of the overwhelming majority that voted for Joe Biden among Arabs and Muslims in the 2020 election, threatening Harris's prospects.

Following a meeting with Muslim voters who expressed their support for him, a new poll conducted by the Research and Studies Unit at Arab News revealed interesting insights. 

Despite Trump being seen as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated they would still vote for him. This suggests that they are penalizing the Democrats for the Biden administration’s perceived failure to rein in “Israel.”

“Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris, although this gap could easily be narrowed — or slightly widened — by the survey’s 5.93 percent margin of error,” as per Arab News.