What Are the Consequences of the Escalation on the Lebanese Front?

In recent developments, the South Lebanese Front has reemerged as a significant force amid intensifying military confrontations between Hezbollah and Israeli Occupation Forces along the border.

This surge in hostilities is reminiscent of the early days of the Gaza War in October 2023, with some analysts drawing parallels to the tensions that existed prior to the year 2000.

Hezbollah’s offensives on the northern regions, which “Israel” occupies, have seen a 36% increase in May alone.

Concurrently, the Israeli Occupation military has conducted roughly 325 operations within Lebanese territory, as reported by the Israeli Channel 12.

This marks a notable shift in the dynamic of the conflict, with the intensity of actions varying since the war’s inception, influenced by various strategic considerations.

New Targets

The uptick in aggression on this front aligns with simultaneous escalations in Yemen and Iraq, prompting speculation about the strategic intents and messages the Resistance Axis aims to convey, particularly to Israeli Occupation and the broader Middle East.

This period of heightened tension coincides with a state of disarray in the Gaza Strip, stemming from the Rafah crossing’s complications and the stalling of peace negotiations.

Moreover, the situation is compounded by Iran’s efforts to mend the fractures caused by the assassination of President Ebrahim Raisi and his Foreign Minister on May 19 of the previous year.

The past week has been marked by distinct operations launched by Hezbollah against Israeli Occupation Forces in the north.

These included a series of maneuvers in the Galilee and Golan Heights, employing a variety of military tactics such as anti-aircraft missiles, advanced drones, and targeted bombings.

According to Hezbollah, these actions inflicted significant losses on the Israeli Occupation side, a claim corroborated by the Israeli Occupation military, albeit with discrepancies in the reported details.

In a concentrated three-day campaign, Hezbollah deployed drones to attack southern Liman, targeting Israeli Occupation artillery in Zaoura, striking the Al-Matula site, and disrupting surveillance equipment in Al-Malikiyah.

Additionally, they bombarded an assembly of Israeli Occupation troops at Khallet Wardah, hit a military vehicle on Jabal Adathir, and launched rockets at two buildings housing Israeli Occupation soldiers in Shlomi and Horsh Adathar.

Furthermore, Hezbollah claimed to have downed an Israeli Occupation Hormuz 900 drone using anti-aircraft missiles and targeted the Burnett base with Burkan missiles.

Israeli Occupation positions extending from Naqoura to the Shebaa Farms have become vulnerable to Hezbollah’s firepower, marking a significant shift in the conflict’s landscape over the past three days.

Amid these hostilities, over 30 missiles were fired from southern Lebanon towards the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan, also hitting an Israeli Occupation radar installation in Shebaa Farms.

The missile strikes ignited fires in the northern regions of Kiryat Shmona in the Upper Galilee and the Golan, causing injuries among settlers and smoke inhalation among Israeli Occupation soldiers.

In response, the Israeli Occupation military has ramped up its operations within Lebanon, executing over 325 military actions that have resulted in numerous Hezbollah casualties and widespread destruction across several villages, as well as damage to Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, as confirmed by Israeli Occupation media sources.

Region Escalation

In the Middle East, tensions have risen sharply on two fronts. In Yemen, the Houthi group claimed responsibility for a missile strike on an Israeli Occupation military installation in Eilat, marking the first use of this particular missile.

This announcement came on the heels of the Houthis’ claim of conducting six military operations targeting naval vessels, including an aircraft carrier and an American destroyer, for allegedly breaching a blockade on Israeli Occupation ports.

Concurrently, an incident was reported by the British Maritime Trade Authority off the coast of Hodeidah.

Similarly, in Iraq, a group known as the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” took credit for attacking military targets in Eilat with drones, insisting on their commitment to targeting what they call enemy positions. This incident was the second attack on Israeli Occupation targets by the group within a fortnight, following an earlier assault on May 15.

These developments come as Hezbollah faces a strategic quandary after targeted Israeli Occupation operations have tarnished its reputation, prompting a reevaluation of its tactics and strategies.

The group’s recent actions suggest an attempt to revert to the pre-October 7, 2023, rules of engagement and to convey a message of resilience and capability to "Israel" despite recent setbacks.

Brigadier General Mounir Shehadeh, a former Lebanese government liaison, interpreted Hezbollah’s recent operations in northern “Israel” as a signal of readiness to return to a more confrontational stance reminiscent of the pre-2000 era.

He highlighted the significance of these operations, noting their proximity to Israeli Occupation Forces and their symbolic value, underscoring Hezbollah’s intent to challenge Israeli Occupation assertions of control and to exert pressure through acts of deterrence.

Long-Term War

Speaking to Al-Estiklal, political researcher Tariq Bodyafa said that Hezbollah's strategy from the beginning was to support factions that distract and drain a large part of the Israeli Occupation army, but the issue has escalated and taken a completely different form now.

“The bank of goals has moved from psychological pressure on the residents of settlements in northern occupied Palestine to displacement and pressure on the government, targeting watchtowers and monitoring points to the stage of preparation for a comprehensive confrontation,” Bodyafa said.

“Now the firepower directed towards occupied Palestine is being doubled in a wider geographical and easier to target after the depletion of Iron Dome batteries in order to evacuate the rest of the northern settlements, which I believe that if the matter develops into a full-scale war, it will witness a street war during which the factional elements move inside, and what happened at the Ramia site was a training on that,” he added.

According to Bodyafa, there is a big difference between the two sides, as the Israeli occupation is working to target specific leaders to cause organizational disruption in the party and strike more penetrating points to expand the areas of terror for popular pressure on the party.

For its part, Hezbollah is trying to bring the Israeli Occupation army into the stage of blindness by systematically targeting towers, points, and devices for eavesdropping, surveillance, and espionage in order to lose the technological superiority that it promotes, which turned out to be not so superior during previous confrontations.

“In short, Hezbollah is preparing for a major war for which it has clearly prepared well for 18 years, and all that the Israeli Occupation army has endured in Gaza since October 7 will be very little in front of what it will face if it goes to war,” Bodyafa concluded.