Iranian Militias Capture an Israeli ‘Spy’ in Iraq — What Are the Expected Repercussions?

The abduction or capture of an Israeli–Russian citizen in Baghdad continues to raise numerous questions about its implications on Iraq’s security and political situation. Particularly concerning is the presence of pro-Iranian militias in the country, which are considered Israeli Occupation’s primary adversaries and are accused of being behind the operation.

One of the main questions arising from this incident is the potential for a conflict between Iran and “Israel” in Iraq, turning the country into a battleground for settling scores.

In recent years, “Israel” has been accused of launching attacks within Iraq against militias supported by Tehran.

The incident involving the Israeli citizen, referred to as “researcher” Elizabeth Tsurkov, was only revealed after a statement was issued by the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 5, 2023. The statement confirmed that Tsurkov had been abducted months earlier by Iraqi Kata’ib Hezbollah (Hezbollah Battalions) and is currently being held hostage by them.

According to the statement, Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli–Russian citizen, had traveled to Iraq using her Russian passport to pursue a doctoral degree and academic research on behalf of Princeton University in the United States. However, the specific timing of her abduction was not mentioned.

While Netanyahu’s office stated that the matter is being handled by Israeli authorities, with concern for Tsurkov’s safety, Russia has not issued any official comments on the issue.

The Iraqi government, represented by spokesman Basim al-Awadi, confirmed during a TV interview on July 6, 2023, that an investigation into the abduction of the Israeli–Russian researcher in the country is ongoing.

As the issue is complex and intertwined, no official statement has been made until the Iraqi government completes its official investigation and reaches conclusions.

The situation is further complicated by Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the prominent factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of armed groups supported by Iran and recently integrated into Iraq’s official forces under the leadership of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani.

In a tweet on July 5, 2023, a senior official from Kata’ib Hezbollah, Abu Ali al-Askari, stated that the admission by the Prime Minister of the Israeli Occupation of having a security element of “Israel” as a captive in Iraq is an extremely serious indication that must be carefully addressed by the relevant security agencies. They should unveil the networks associated with this entity and bring them to justice.

He added that Kata’ib Hezbollah will double its efforts to determine the fate of the Zionists captive (or captives) in Iraq to serve the public interest and learn more about the intentions of this criminal gang and those who facilitate their movements in a country where dealing with them is banned and criminalized.

The incident remains a matter of concern, and its resolution will have significant implications for the relations between Iran, “Israel,” and Iraq’s security and political landscape.

 

Endless Conflict

The ongoing espionage war takes a dramatic turn with the abduction of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli–Russian citizen, in Baghdad. This incident has sparked serious concerns about its potential impact on Iraq’s security and political situation, leaving many questions unanswered.

What stands out in this matter is Russia’s lack of intervention and its reluctance to confirm the Israeli Occupation narrative, which may suggest Tsurkov’s possible role as a spy.

Iraqi researcher Ali al-Masari stated that the abduction of the Israeli citizen is undoubtedly linked to Iran, given that the Iraqi militias are incapable of tracking all foreign visitors and identifying their intentions. This indicates Iran’s involvement in the kidnapping, with the militias serving as mere instruments manipulated by Tehran.

As a result, it is Iran that is likely to negotiate Tsurkov’s release with “Israel,” especially considering the ongoing conflict between the two sides, primarily in Syria, where Iran and its militias have faced Israeli strikes and retaliatory threats.

“Israel” has delivered significant blows to Iran in recent years, targeting both foreign and domestic locations, including nuclear facilities, as well as assassinating nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020. In response, Iran appears to resort to kidnapping operations, with several thwarted attempts in Greece and Turkiye targeting Israeli citizens.

The ongoing war of espionage between Iran and “Israel” extends across various arenas. In March 2023, Greece announced the dismantling of a terrorist network planning attacks on several targets in the country with ties to foreign entities. On June 30, 2023, Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, reported arresting a suspect who led an assassination squad planning to kill Israelis in Cyprus, revealing connections to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

As tensions escalate, it is evident that both Iran and “Israel” are engaged in a back-and-forth struggle, with each attempting to strike a blow against the other. The Israeli Occupation’s recent successful operation inside Iran and the possible prisoner exchange negotiations with Russia’s involvement highlight the complex and ongoing conflict between the two sides in different arenas.

Overall, the abduction of the Israeli citizen in Iraq adds another layer of complexity to the already tense relations between Iran and “Israel,” and its resolution will have significant implications for the region’s security dynamics.

 

Significant Implications

The incident of the abduction raises serious concerns about the escalating situation in Iraq. Iraqi writer and political analyst Ali al-Baidar pointed out the significant development of armed Shia factions in Iraq, indicating their direct confrontation with “Israel.” However, he also warned of the anticipated Israeli response.

According to al-Baidar, this incident signifies a critical escalation level for the armed groups in Iraq, self-identifying as part of the resistance axis, and “Israel” on the other side. The confrontation between the two parties has become direct, and the escalation is gaining momentum.

The armed factions in Iraq have demonstrated extensive capabilities, including the ability to identify individuals’ identities and details, suggesting the possibility of more sophisticated operations in the future.

As a state, Iraq will bear the consequences of this situation, and the government needs to handle the matter with caution. The country may not be able to withstand potential Israeli strikes on selected targets within Iraqi territory, which could lead to significant material and moral damage.

Al-Baidar questioned the nature of Israeli presence in Iraq, whether for civilian purposes such as tourism or working with international organizations. He expressed suspicion and concern about such activities and the lack of clarity regarding the Israeli Occupation’s intentions.

Overall, the absence of a clear state presence in handling these matters indicates that the Israeli-affiliated groups have considerable freedom of movement, access to sensitive information, and capabilities to confront perceived adversaries.

This raises serious questions about the stability and security of Iraq’s situation and its potential implications for the region.

In contrast, al-Baidar believes that the armed groups in Iraq aim to assert their presence in the Palestinian cause and prove their ability to confront Israelis, not limiting themselves to moral roles through condemnation messages and threatening slogans.

The Iraqi political analyst did not rule out that the abduction incident could lead to “organized escalation, whether within Iraqi territory or the region.” However, he emphasized that any anticipated escalation should not come at the expense of Iraq’s sovereignty, which must be a red line for the state and its institutions.

In 2019, Israel conducted several airstrikes in Iraq, initially denying their involvement. Later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at their responsibility for the attacks that took place on August 20, 2019, saying that Iran is not immune anywhere.

On August 22, 2019, “Israel,” through Netanyahu’s announcement, officially claimed responsibility for the attacks, which amounted to four strikes. The targets included weapons depots and military bases belonging to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces in the south of Baghdad and in the provinces of Salah al-Din and Diyala in northern and eastern Iraq.

Netanyahu stated in an interview with the Israeli Channel 9 that Iran is trying to establish bases against “Israel” in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. “We take action against any country that aims to destroy us.”

The situation is complex and tense, and any further escalations could have serious implications for Iraq’s sovereignty and security, as well as regional stability. The Iraqi government will need to approach this matter with utmost care to safeguard the country’s interests and stability.