After Winning 25 Seats in Parliament: Will British Muslims Influence Foreign Policy?

Following the general election on July 4, 2024, 25 Muslim MPs entered the British House of Commons (the lower house of Parliament), raising questions about whether they might alter the UK's foreign policy towards “Israel.”

The 25 MPs, mostly supporters of Gaza and opponents of Israeli Occupation, form the largest bloc among the 89 MPs representing minorities in the House of Commons, which has 650 seats.

This development has led some newspapers to view it as a significant test for Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who supports the state of “Israel,” and to warn him about the growing number of Gaza supporters in Britain due to Israeli war crimes in Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories.

Among these Muslim MPs, there are 4 independents who support Gaza, 18 from the Labour Party, 2 from the Conservative Party, and 1 from the Liberal Democrats, representing a significant proportion.

In the 2019 election, 19 Muslim candidates won seats in the British Parliament, compared to only 15 in the 2017 election.

The Muslim population in Britain is approximately 4 million, or 6% of the population, according to a report by Muslim Mirror on July 9, 2024.

An exclusive survey conducted by Savanta for Hyphen on June 11, 2024, revealed that 44% of Muslim voters ranked the Israeli war on Gaza among their top five issues.

The same survey found that 12% of non-Muslims also ranked Gaza among their top five issues.

According to British newspapers, one of the main reasons that encouraged independent Muslim candidates to ally with the Green Party and other smaller parties is the coalition led by French leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, which ended with his electoral victory.

Melenchon's leftist Popular Front coalition won first place (182 out of 289 seats) through its alliance with the Green Party, challenging President Emmanuel Macron's bloc and the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen.

After seven independent candidates supported by the Muslim Vote campaign, including four Muslims, won seats, the campaign began developing a new vision for future British elections.

The Muslim Vote campaign stated in a report published on its website on July 12, 2024, “If we look at the 40 constituencies where the Green Party finished second, 22 of those have a Muslim population exceeding 10%.” 

“This will be absolutely crucial for the Greens in their quest to increase their parliamentary representation in future elections.”

The report emphasized that the remarkable success of the five new independent MPs in the UK elections represents the highest number of independent MPs since 1950, and a higher number could have been achieved had a similar approach to France been adopted.

Missed Opportunities 

The analysis of constituencies with large Muslim populations reveals missed opportunities where strategic alliances could have significantly altered election results.

In five key constituencies, pro-Palestine candidates could have defeated Labour Party candidates if Green Party candidates had withdrawn, thus avoiding vote splitting.

For instance, the British Palestinian candidate Leane Mohamad, who lost the election, could have won if there had been coordination between the campaign and the Green Party.

The votes received by the Green Party candidate in the same constituency (1,794 votes) could have contributed to Leanne Mohamad winning the seat if added to her total.

Despite receiving 15,119 votes, the independent British Palestinian candidate lost narrowly to Labour Minister Wes Streeting, with a margin of only 528 votes.

Jeremy Corbyn and other pro-Palestine independent MPs have begun working as a bloc within the UK Parliament to advocate for Gaza and demand a series of measures.

Their demands include banning arms sales to “Israel,” imposing extensive sanctions on the Israeli Occupation, recognizing the state of Palestine, increasing funding to UNRWA, and sending a peacekeeping force to Gaza.

They also called on the Labour government to use Britain's role in the UN Security Council to push for an immediate ceasefire and support the International Criminal Court's call to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Muslim Vote report noted that the recent French elections demonstrated a remarkable example of building strategic alliances and tactical voting, offering valuable lessons for the political landscape in the UK.

It added, “The unexpected success of the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) in France, which defeated even President Macron’s centrist alliance, demonstrates the power of unity and collaboration among diverse political factions."

"This victory was achieved by bringing together Socialists, Greens, Communists, and the hard-left France Unbowed, who collectively prevented vote splitting and secured a significant political triumph."

In the recent elections, the British Labour Party secured 412 seats in the House of Commons out of 650, a feat described as the largest shift for any party in the UK since World War II.

The Conservative Party won 121 seats, down from 365 in the 2019 election, marking a dramatic defeat for the party that had been governing the UK alone for nearly a decade and a half.

However, the surprise was the emergence of the Muslim-Vote movement, which made headlines with its support for Gaza-supportive candidates and its opposition to the Israeli Occupation's crimes in Palestine.

Significant Impact

The movement has announced greater ambitions to form a broader political alliance aimed at overcoming the major traditional parties and achieving power, inspired by the experience of diverse forces uniting in France and their subsequent victory, while seeking to leverage the large Muslim populations in key constituencies.

Muslims constitute over 30% of the electorate in 20 constituencies in the United Kingdom.

The constituency of Birmingham Hodge Hill has the highest Muslim population at 62%, followed by Bradford West at 59%, Ilford South at 44%, and Leicester South at 32%.

Many pro-Palestine Muslim candidates have taken control of former Labour strongholds, according to Hyphen on July 5, 2024.

For instance, Shokat Adam won in Leicester South, Iqbal Mohamed in Dewsbury and Batley, Adnan Hussain in Blackburn, and Ayoub Khan in Birmingham Perry Barr as independent candidates. Additionally, Muslim candidate Sadik al-Hassan defeated Conservative candidate Liam Fox in North Somerset.

Numerous Labour Party Muslim candidates secured votes from British Muslims, such as Abtisam Mohammed, who won Sheffield Central with 52.1% of the vote.

Zubir Ahmed, a Muslim candidate selected by the Labour Party in South West Glasgow, received just over 43% of the vote.

Muslim voters' support for Gaza contributed to the victory of five independent candidates over Labour, with four of them running for the first time.

Despite the support from Muslims on Labour's lists as Gaza supporters, the 2024 UK general elections saw a decline in Labour’s performance in constituencies with high Muslim populations, according to Hyphen on July 6, 2024.

Research conducted in the 21 constituencies where Muslims make up over 30% of the population showed a 29-percentage point drop in Labour's share, from an average of 65% in 2019 to 36% in 2024.

This indicates the potential power of Muslim votes if they supported a broader alliance with the Green Party and other independents in future elections.

The research also showed a significant decrease in Muslim voter turnout, dropping by 11.2 percentage points in these constituencies in the July elections.

This suggests that some Muslim voters abstained from voting, and they might have supported the coalition that the Muslim Vote movement aims to form.

The impact of losing Muslim votes was not limited to constituencies with high Muslim populations but also extended to those with smaller Muslim communities.

In the 43 constituencies where Muslims make up between 15% and 30% of the population, Labour lost another 300,000 votes.

The figures also indicate a drop in Labour’s total votes in these constituencies from over 600,000 in 2019 to less than 300,000 in 2024.

This represents more than half of the overall drop in Labour votes between the two elections (the party lost 537,688 votes compared to 2019), highlighting the influence of Muslims on the 2024 general election.

Despite this significant decline, Labour managed to retain seats in high Muslim population areas.

The party held 17 out of 21 constituencies, as the majority of Muslims found no better alternative and preferred Labour over the Conservatives.

Several Labour candidates lost their seats, including Khalid Mahmood in Birmingham Perry Barr, who was the only Muslim MP during the Iraq War in 2003.

Other Labour MPs experienced significant declines in their vote shares, but those who took pro-Gaza stances, such as Jess Phillips and Imran Hussain, saw less severe reductions.

Inspiration for Others

The Nation newspaper highlighted in a report on July 12, 2024, the impact of Muslim voters and their influence on the recent UK elections, noting the significance of their role as the U.S. presidential race approaches.

The report pointed out that Muslims in the UK sent a message through the elections, demonstrating that, despite making up about 6% of the total population, they turned out in large numbers to challenge the prevailing political currents and vote against the party expected to form the government, achieving unexpected results.

The Nation stated that the Muslim community in the UK has begun to organize itself into a voting bloc capable of challenging the status quo.

Mosques, community centers, and civil society organizations have come together to create a political movement dedicated to placing the Gaza crisis at the heart of the elections.

It noted that the two main parties in Westminster (Conservatives and Labour) supported the Israeli aggression against Gaza, claiming it was a form of self-defense.

This stance angered British Muslims, who have historically supported the Labour Party, prompting them to form the Muslim Vote movement, which sent 7 MPs to Parliament, including 4 Muslims, all of whom support Gaza.

If American Muslims take similar actions as their British counterparts in the November 2024 elections, the candidates in the presidential election should indeed be very concerned.

Among the approximately one million Muslims who participated in the 2020 presidential election, nearly 80% voted for President Joe Biden.

Today, however, support for him has dropped to about 5%, according to a survey conducted by Emgage (an organization aimed at enhancing political participation within American Muslim communities) before he decided to step down from the presidential race.

The report explained that this decline could be disastrous in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Joe Biden’s majority is less than the total Muslim population.

The Uncommitted movement, which has announced it will not vote for Biden due to his support for the Israeli aggression on Gaza, is already impacting Muslim voters, as well as the anti-war left. These groups are capable of organizing into a unified bloc in American elections, according to the Nation newspaper.

Over 13% of those who voted in the Democratic primary in Michigan indicated they were Uncommitted.

This figure was about 19% in Minnesota, with approximately 46,000 voters, which surpasses Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory there in 2016.

In Arizona, a state where Biden won by around 10,000 votes in 2020, nearly 16,000 Democrats voted for Marianne Williamson after she called for a ceasefire in Gaza.