Half a Million Votes Lost: Will 'Uncommitted' Movement Tip US Elections Against Biden, For Trump?

Following his strong support for the Israeli war on Gaza and the anger among his party's supporters over his blind bias towards “Israel,” a movement arose among Democratic voters called "Uncommitted National Movement," urging not to vote for President Joe Biden.

This movement means that voters vote in a normal way, but they are "Uncommitted" to the choice of a specific party candidate; voters will not choose Joe Biden and may suffice to prove their presence without choosing any candidate, according to Politico on February 27, 2024.

Joe Biden underestimated the importance of this movement and continued his support of the Israeli aggression on Gaza militarily and politically, increasing the rise of the Uncommitted Movement; the preliminary results of the presidential elections showed that they deprived Joe Biden of more than half a million votes.

The Uncommitted protest vote illustrates the increasing challenge facing Joe Biden and threatening his chances of winning the presidency for the second time.

How Was It Created?

This movement was born in Michigan, home to many Arab and Muslim Americans who previously supported Joe Biden, contributing to his election as president in 2020; then the movement spread beyond Michigan, according to The Guardian on March 17, 2024.

The movement began with marches, protests, and appearances at public events attended by Joe Biden, but that was not enough to attract his attention; then a strategy of urging Democratic voters to vote "Uncommitted" was developed. 

This means not voting for anyone in the presidential election, as a protest of the massacre in Gaza.

The candidate lists of each party include columns with the names of candidates, in addition to a column labeled “Uncommitted.”

When the voter chooses "uncommitted," it means that he practices partisan voting, that is, he votes for Democrats, but he is not committed to any of the candidates listed on the ballot.

The idea behind voting for "uncommitted" was explained in a memo written in late January by Waleed Shahid, a Democratic strategist,  outlining the idea: use uncommitted in the Michigan presidential primary to “demonstrate a large rejection of President Biden’s backing and financing of the Israeli government’s war in Gaza.” 

The effort would generate free press for the anti-war movement and help activists learn skills in canvassing, phone banking, and messaging, the memo noted. It would “politicize and electoralize discontent” over the war.

The goal of the voters in Michigan was to gather 10,000 "uncommitted" votes to send a warning message to President Biden that they might drop him.

It was almost the margin that Trump won in the state in 2016 before Joe Biden took it from him in the 2020 election.

The organizers of the "Uncommitted National Movement,” volunteers from anti-war activists, Muslims, and progressives, showed tremendous organizational ability, making more than 500,000 phone calls and sending more than 600,000 text messages to voters, and succeeded in mobilizing the masses.

The surprise was that the “Uncommitted National Movement” campaign, dubbed Listen to Michigan, far exceeded its goals, receiving more than 100,000 Democratic votes in Michigan who voted "uncommitted" instead of giving their votes to Joe Biden.

The Michigan elections demonstrated the strength of Arab and Muslim voters, after causing Joe Biden to lose 102,000 Democratic votes who voted "uncommitted," sending him a warning to change his policies towards Gaza.

Of course, Joe Biden eventually won the vote in the preliminary elections in Michigan as the Democratic Party's candidate in February 2024 by 80%.

However, the "uncommitted" votes, which represented 13.2% of the total participants in the elections, in addition to those who went to others, were noticeable and posed a future threat to him against Trump, a "victory with the taste of defeat."

It was difficult for Joe Biden's task, the appearance of a second movement, called "Abandon Biden," aimed at directly denying the president a second term, for supporting the Israeli aggression on Gaza and not sympathizing with the suffering of Palestinians.

As a result, thousands of others in other states voted against Joe Biden, where they chose "uncommitted."

The “Uncommitted National Movement,” led by Arab and Muslim Americans and the progressive movement, won 10% of the votes in New Mexico and 9% in New Jersey, a state with a large number of Arab Americans.

9% of New Jersey residents (43,000 votes) voted for "uncommitted" in the presidential primary elections for the Democratic Party, as part of a protest vote against the policies of the Joe Biden administration supporting “Israel.”

Former Rep. Sadaf Jaffer, a strong critic of the Joe Biden administration's policy on war, told the New Jersey Monitor on June 8, 2024, that these votes send a message to Joe Biden that Democrats are not satisfied.

650,000 Votes Lost

The Hill, closely associated with Congress, reported on June 6, 2024, that President Joe Biden lost over half a million votes due to the “Uncommitted National Movement” in the Democratic primary elections this year. 

The movement attracted 30 delegates from the Democratic Party across five states, highlighting disillusionment within the party over Joe Biden's staunch support for the bloody Israeli war on Gaza. Recent figures also revealed that “uncommitted” garnered 45,000 votes in Michigan, securing 11 delegates in the electoral college, the highest share from any state.

Politico noted on June 5, 2024, that over “650,000 Democrats voted against Biden over the last four months by choosing options such as “uncommitted,” with others protesting in other states through write-ins, blank ballots, votes for other candidates and other means. Together, the hundreds of thousands of protest votes underscore the president’s political weakness with five months until Election Day.”

Polls show that Joe Biden and his political rival, former President Trump, are closely competing in swing states like Michigan. Several polls indicate that Trump leads Joe Biden directly in these states, after Joe Biden's loss there in 2020.

Michigan is considered a crucial swing state in U.S. presidential elections, and Joe Biden's path to retaining the White House will be significantly tougher, if not impossible, if he loses it in November, according to The Washington Post.

Trump won Michigan over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a margin of about 11,000 votes. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state, defeating Trump by approximately 154,000 votes.

Impact on Joe Biden

Over half a million Democratic supporters voted against Joe Biden with "uncommitted" in the primary elections in several states, due to their anger over his support for the bloody Israeli aggression on Gaza; many of them may abstain from the November 2024 elections.

In the 2020 elections, nearly 20,000 Democratic voters opted for "uncommitted," representing only 1% of the total Democratic votes. However, this year, the number has exceeded half a million votes, posing a significant threat to Joe Biden.

Several U.S. newspapers have suggested that the "uncommitted" bloc could play a crucial role in tipping the scales for or against Joe Biden, as they prioritize Netanyahu's interests over American democracy, according to some "uncommitted" members.

"Uncommitted" votes are counted just like votes for any other candidate. If enough voters choose "uncommitted," the party can send "uncommitted" delegates to the national party convention, a scenario unprecedented before.

In the same report, Politico said that “the risks are enormous for Joe Biden if even a small segment of the coalition that powered him to the White House stays home or chooses a third-party candidate instead.”

The Washington Post highlighted on February 27, 2024, the impact of this phenomenon resulting from voters' right to vote with the label "uncommitted" as a warning bell for Joe Biden, potentially jeopardizing his victory.

The campaign has garnered high-profile support ahead of the primary elections, extending beyond the Arab-American community to some prominent liberals within the Democratic Party, posing a threat to Joe Biden.

Former Michigan Congressman Andy Levin has thrown his weight behind the "uncommitted" voting campaign, hoping to show Joe Biden that he needs to change course (stop supporting “Israel”) to win the state in November 2024, according to the newspaper.

Prominent Democratic lawmakers, including former presidential contender Beto O'Rourke and former Ohio Senator Nina Turner, have also endorsed the movement.

Celebrities have also supported the campaign, such as American actor Mark Ruffalo, advocating for placing a blank ballot in the boxes as part of the "Uncommitted National Movement" campaign.

Many believe that the significant rise of this campaign and its threat to Joe Biden's chances of reclaiming the presidency is behind his recent initiative of the ceasefire deal and his pressure on Netanyahu to accept it.

Additionally, Joe Biden's directive to the "American Hostage Cell" to secure the release of four Israeli prisoners from Gaza was viewed as a strategic move to persuade Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire, aiming to mitigate the negative impact on the U.S. president’s popularity.

Numerous Arab and Muslim American activists and voters have publicly urged Joe Biden, through television and press statements, to call for a permanent ceasefire before they can consider whether to support him in November 2024 or not.

Abdullah Hammoud, the mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, explained the level of dismay among Arabs and Muslims, affirming that they feel betrayed. They voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but now feel ignored and see support for the aggression on Gaza.

Hammoud stated in an opinion piece published by The New York Times on February 20, 2024, that “there is a deep sense of betrayal among Arab Americans because they were part of the wave that delivered the presidency to Joe Biden in 2020.”

“However,  it seems he has forgotten this fact and is selling bombs to Netanyahu, who drops them on our families and friends in Palestine," Hammoud said.

“I worry Biden will be remembered not as the president who saved American democracy but as the president who sacrificed it for Netanyahu,” he added.

Hammoud noted that “a majority of Americans want a ceasefire in the Middle East, but the president and Congress are ignoring public opinion polls on this matter.”

This anger was reflected in the voting pattern where 75% of Dearborn residents voted for "uncommitted" compared to only 23% who chose Joe Biden.

The “Uncommitted National Movement” appears to be issuing a final warning to Joe Biden, demanding that "he must end the blank check and stop weapons transfers to Israel [before Netanyahu will cause] more Palestinian civilian deaths than any since 1948.”

“Biden can help end the bloodshed by halting funding and weapons now," the movement added. 

In another post on X, they emphasized that "if Biden wants Democrats to vote for him in November 2024, he must halt military aid to Israel."