Why Is Qatar Strengthening Its Relationship with Central Asia?

In a sign of deepening ties with Central Asia, Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, visited four countries in the region this week: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

He was also the guest of honor at the Astana International Forum in Kazakhstan, a gathering of political and business leaders.

The emir’s trip, which ended on June 8, followed his visits to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan last year, and earlier visits to Kazakhstan in 2017 and Turkmenistan in 2016.

Several Central Asian presidents have also traveled to Doha in recent years, reflecting the mutual interest in strengthening the relationship.

 

Strategic Partner

Qatar sees Central Asia as a strategic partner for its economic diversification plan, which aims to reduce its reliance on hydrocarbon revenues by 2030.

The region offers opportunities for Qatari investments in various sectors, such as agriculture, infrastructure, transportation, finance, and energy.

According to World Bank data, the trade volume between Qatar and Central Asia reached $1.2 billion in 2019, with Kazakhstan accounting for most of it.

The figure is modest compared with other regions, but it could increase if procedural obstacles are removed, such as reaching a free trade agreement and facilitating transportation.

Central Asia also provides a gateway for Qatar to connect with China’s Belt and Road network, a massive infrastructure project that will link Asia with Europe.

Three of the network’s routes pass through Central Asia. Kazakhstan, which hosts all three routes, has a prominent position among Qatar’s priorities in Central Asia.

The country is rich in natural resources, including coal, oil, and gas. It also has large reserves of rare materials that are essential for high-tech industries such as electronics, space, nuclear energy, and medicine.

Experts expect that the global demand for these materials will rise as they are vital for strategic sectors such as data storage, processing and transmission, energy, and space.

 

Geopolitical Significance

Qatar’s strategic ties with Central Asian countries are not only driven by economic interests, but also by geopolitical considerations.

The region is surrounded by major powers that Qatar seeks to engage with, such as China, Russia, Europe, Iran, and Turkiye. Qatar’s diplomacy in Central Asia could help shape events and resolve conflicts in this volatile area.

Qatar also finds a natural ally in Turkiye, which shares its vision and values in many arenas.

Turkiye has a strong cultural and historical connection with the Turkic-speaking states of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

It established an association with them after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, and often invokes a sense of Turkic brotherhood that transcends national boundaries.

Qatar could reinforce this bond and consolidate its alliance with Turkiye through joint cooperation in Central Asia.

The Central Asian countries themselves have their own reasons for welcoming Qatar’s involvement.

They need foreign investors to boost their economies and create jobs for their citizens. They also need to diversify their markets and reduce their dependence on Russia, which has long dominated the region.

However, these countries face serious challenges, such as rising inflation, social unrest, and political instability.

In January 2022, Kazakhstan witnessed violent protests over high gasoline prices, prompting the government to seek Russian military intervention.

The situation remains fragile, as the underlying causes of discontent persist. The inflation rate in Central Asia was 8.9 percent in 2021, more than double the global rate of 4.4 percent.

To curb inflation, the governments of the region have raised interest rates to levels that discourage borrowing and investment.

For example, the interest rate in Kazakhstan reached 16.75 percent in April 2023, compared to the global rate of 4.9 percent in January 2023. This has led to economic slowdown, unemployment, and social dissatisfaction.

The current circumstances limit the options of the Central Asian governments to maintain order and stability. They cannot rely on Russia’s security support as they used to, because Russia is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine and faces severe Western isolation.

Countries that seek Russia’s help may also risk being isolated or pressured by Moscow to support its interests or actions in Ukraine or elsewhere.

 

Security Interests

One of the factors that bring Qatar and Central Asian countries closer is their common security interests and challenges. Both are part of a security complex that involves the United States, Russia, China, and Afghanistan.

Moaz al-Rashid, a journalist that specializes in Turkic affairs, said the United States is a key ally for both Qatar and Central Asian countries, which eases the diplomatic ties between the two parties.

In his interview with Al-Estiklal, al-Rashid said that Qatar hosts the U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in Central Asia and Afghanistan.

“Central Asian countries have bilateral and multilateral partnerships with the U.S., such as the ‘C5+1’ diplomatic platform and the U.S.–Central Asia trade and investment agreement,” al-Rashid added.

“But Afghanistan is a source of concern and opportunity for both Qatar and Central Asian countries. Qatar has played a pivotal role in facilitating peace talks between the Taliban and other Afghan parties, as well as hosting thousands of evacuees after the U.S. withdrawal,” he said.

According to al-Rashid, Central Asian countries, especially Tajikistan, have been affected by the influx of refugees and the security threats posed by ISIS and other militant groups in Afghanistan.

They also have a stake in the stability and development of their neighbor, which could offer trade and transit routes to South Asia, al-Rashid noted.

“Meanwhile, Russia and China are also influential actors in the security complex. Russia has traditionally been a dominant power in Central Asia, providing military and political support to the former Soviet republics.:

However, its recent invasion of Ukraine has raised doubts about its reliability and intentions among Central Asian leaders, who are wary of Moscow’s demands for geopolitical concessions.

China, on the other hand, has been expanding its economic presence and influence in Central Asia through its Belt and Road initiative, which aims to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa through infrastructure projects.

“China offers lucrative opportunities for trade and investment to Central Asian countries, but also poses challenges such as debt traps, human rights violations, and political interference,” al-Rashid concluded.

There are also challenges and risks involved in investing in Central Asia. The region faces political instability, corruption, social unrest, environmental degradation, and human rights issues.

It also faces competition from other regional powers, such as Turkiye, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, who have their own interests and agendas in Central Asia.