Hezbollah Experiencing Existential Crisis Amid Lost Allies and Power

Since its emergence in the 1980s and through its destructive war with the Israeli occupation in 2024, the existence and strengthening of Hezbollah, which has come to dominate Lebanon’s political and security landscape, can be attributed to Iran and the Ba'athist regime in Syria under the leadership of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad.

Following the decimation of Hezbollah's capabilities, the death of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and the loss of most of its political and military leadership, along with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's ousted regime in Syria, reports have emerged suggesting the withdrawal of Iranian military and financial advisors from Lebanon.

With all these key assets lost in a short period, Hezbollah now faces pressing questions about the extent to which its power on the Lebanese stage, which it has controlled for decades through armed force, backed by political, financial, and military support from Iran and the now-deposed Syrian regime, has been affected.

Hezbollah's Crisis

On December 18, 2024, a Lebanese newspaper revealed that a significant number of security and military advisors affiliated with Iran and its allies had left Lebanon via Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport, following the fall of al-Assad regime in Syria.

According to Nidaa al-Watan newspaper, the individuals who departed “had entered Lebanon through the Qusayr area, using forged identities or via illegal crossings previously controlled by Hezbollah” before the collapse of al-Assad’s regime.

“Notably, the exodus is not limited to Iranian military personnel stationed in Syria—it also includes those based in Lebanon,” according to the Kataeb website.

According to Al-Estiklal, Nidaa al-Watan noted that Iran’s presence in the region has been firmly established since the founding of Hezbollah in 1982 and had never left Lebanon. 

However, with the fall of al-Assad’s regime, the majority of Iranian advisors and officers overseeing the reconstruction of Hezbollah in Beirut have now left. 

“Their mandate was limited to Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon, not to Syria.” 

“Of particular significance is the departure of Iranian financial officials who managed Hezbollah’s funding. These officials were responsible for ensuring a secure financial network, overseeing Iranian disbursements, and maintaining the group's financial operations,” as reported by Kataeb.

This news comes amid reports that the families of some Hezbollah leaders have also left Lebanon, with senior officials continuing to take precautionary measures.

The departure of the Iranians was interpreted as a sign of "Iranian concern that the Israeli occupation might resume its aggression against Lebanon, following the destruction of [regime Forces’] infrastructure, to eradicate what remains of Iran's power there."

The report also pointed out that "the Iranians know that Lebanon is no longer a safe arena for their activities, especially after the fall of al-Assad regime and the control over the airport, the port, and the legal crossings, which has hindered their movements within Lebanon."

The newspaper suggested that the exit of Iranian financial officials from Lebanon was a message to Hezbollah and its base, signaling the end of the era of Iranian financial influx.

It also implied that there would be no future funds available, whether for rebuilding Hezbollah's infrastructure, supporting its community, or for the reconstruction of what was destroyed during the war with “Israel.”

According to Reuters, on December 14, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, admitted in a televised speech that “the Lebanese armed group had lost its supply route through Syria, in his first comments since the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad.”

While Qassem did not explicitly mention al-Assad in his remarks, he stated that Hezbollah “cannot judge these new forces until they stabilize” and “take clear positions”, but said he hoped that the Lebanese and Syrian peoples and governments could continue to cooperate.

An Existential Challenge

Regarding its future in light of the loss of key sources of power, Middle East researcher Maytham Muhammad Saheb stated that Hezbollah, in the absence of its former leader Nasrallah, al-Assad’s regime, and Iranian support, has become significantly weakened on the Lebanese political scene. However, he stressed that this does not mean the group is finished.

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, Saheb explained that “the link between Iran and Lebanon was the Syrian regime, and now Syria is a country governed by a new Sunni administration that is completely opposed to the Iranian axis, even considering it an enemy.”

"Despite Hezbollah’s substantial weakness in the current phase, the Lebanese government is also weak and, so far, incapable of fully taking control of Lebanon's affairs, unless it receives substantial external support."

"For more than four decades, Hezbollah has infiltrated every part of Lebanon, and there is now a massive economic mafia that will not disappear easily, even with the loss of the party’s external supporters," Saheb noted.

On the internal impact of these shifts within Lebanon, Lebanese writer Tony Boulos argued that "the fall of the Assad regime represents an existential challenge for Hezbollah, which has lost a strategic ally and a vital supply corridor. This is a pivotal event with deep ramifications."

In an article for Independent Arabia on December 10, Boulos explained that "Hezbollah long relied on its alliance with the Syrian regime as a strategic bridge connecting it to Iran and the rest of the resistance axis. Today, this makes it difficult for Tehran to supply Hezbollah with weapons via Syrian territory."

As a result, Hezbollah now finds itself isolated on the Lebanese stage, which could weaken its position both domestically and regionally.

In the calculus of gains and losses, the writer adds that Hezbollah is the primary loser. The fall of the Syrian regime compounds the blows it suffered in its war with “Israel,” including being forced to sign an agreement that pushes it 30 kilometers away from the borders of the occupied Palestinian territories.

Thus, Boulos argues that Hezbollah has "lost its vital extension into deep Syria, as well as its control over most of the border strip between Lebanon and Syria, which will weaken it both politically and militarily. This could lead to the dismantling of the security grip it has imposed on Beirut."

He concludes that the results of the war with “Israel” and the changes in Syria should prompt Hezbollah to re-evaluate the reality on the ground and adjust its internal positioning for the upcoming phase.

According to his assessment, this would necessitate Hezbollah handing over its weapons to the legitimate authority, dismantling its military apparatus, shifting to political action, and abandoning its regional ambitions and the idea of controlling Lebanon.

A Radical Shift

In this context, The Washington Post argues that “Hezbollah was dealt a major blow during 14 months of war with Israel.”

“The toppling of Assad, who had strong ties to Iran, has now crippled its ability to bounce back by cutting off a vital weapons-smuggling route through Syria.”

The report noted on December 14 that "weakening Hezbollah will have grave consequences in Lebanon, especially as it has been a major political player."

Moreover, the group's weakening will also impact Iran, which has relied on Hezbollah to expand its influence across the Middle East.

"The Assad dynasty, which ruled Syria for half a century with an iron fist, played a crucial role in empowering Hezbollah, which was founded in the early 1980s by Iranian advisers who came through Syria," as highlighted by Washington Post.

According to the Washington Post, “In addition to being a conduit for Iranian weapons, Syria also was a place where Hezbollah trained fighters and manufactured its own weapons."

The report quoted Middle East Institute researcher Firas Maksad saying, “With the (Syrian) regime gone, Hezbollah in Lebanon faces an entirely new reality.”

“Many Lebanese leaders have yet to grasp the magnitude of the change that has taken place. Even some onetime allies of Hezbollah in parliament have begun distancing themselves from the group,” Maksad added.

“With the fall of Assad, Iran has lost control of a corridor of land that stretched through Iraq and Syria all the way to the Mediterranean, and which gave it an unimpeded route to supply Hezbollah.”

According to Al-Estiklal, the fall of al-Assad’s regime in Syria marked a historic turning point in the Middle East. 

This dramatic event, combined with the severe blows Hezbollah sustained in its war against “Israel,” is creating a new reality in the region.

The report added that Iran is losing its regional influence corridor, and Hezbollah finds itself at an unprecedented point of weakness, as Lebanon faces the potential for a radical shift in its internal balance of power.