Are Hezbollah’s Alliances in Lebanon Fracturing After Split with 'Free Patriotic Movement'?

Lebanese Christian Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil's recent decision to end a two-decade alliance with Hezbollah at this critical moment has been described by observers as a “reversal.”

As Hezbollah has engaged in war with “Israel” in support of Gaza since October 8, 2023, Bassil announced on October 22, 2024, that the alliance with Hezbollah would no longer continue.

Bassil attributed this to what he called Hezbollah’s “strategic error” in following a “unity of fronts” policy, stating, “It confirmed what we’ve been saying—that this serves no Lebanese interest. There may be interests for other nations in the axis, but not for Lebanon.”

Alliance Broken

Bassil chose Saudi-owned al-Arabiya as his platform to announce the end of his alliance with Hezbollah, saying, “Iraq and Syria have not joined the war; only Iran is fighting through Hezbollah and the Lebanese. Iran should face Israel directly, not through Lebanon.”

“Hezbollah’s ‘unity of fronts’ strategy serves non-Lebanese interests, which is why we opposed it.”

“Hezbollah’s involvement has harmed Lebanon. We warned them against counting on that; this war will be prolonged, unlike the 2006 July War, and nothing will end it except—unfortunately—a balance of power, which Lebanon lacks,” he added.

In response to recent comments by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, linking a ceasefire in Lebanon to Gaza, Bassil stated, “We disagree, he should speak for himself, not for us.”

The strategic alliance was first forged with the “Mar Mikhael Agreement” on February 6, 2006, at Mar Mikhael Church near Beirut’s southern suburbs. This agreement was signed by then-Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) founder Michel Aoun.

However, tensions surfaced between Hezbollah and the FPM, a significant Christian faction founded in 1994, after Hezbollah opposed Bassil’s preferred candidate for the Lebanese presidency.

Since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022, Lebanon’s parliament has failed 12 times to elect a president, amid a political deadlock between Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force, and its rivals.

A further divide emerged over the appointment of a “pro-resistance” president, a stance voiced by Nasrallah, who endorsed Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh—an endorsement rejected by Bassil and most other Lebanese factions.

Disagreements continued as the FPM protested Hezbollah ministers’ participation in caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s cabinet sessions amid the presidential vacuum, which FPM ministers boycotted except in rare cases.

Hezbollah's Increasing Isolation

The Free Patriotic Movement’s (FPM) reevaluation of its alliance with Hezbollah is expected to deepen Hezbollah’s isolation. This shift comes amid significant losses for Hezbollah, following the Israeli assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on September 27, 2024, along with senior leaders and his successor, Hashem Safieddine, in an October 3 airstrike.

Ali al-Amin, a columnist and editor-in-chief of Janoubia, a news website based in southern Lebanon, remarked that Bassil's decision “further isolates Hezbollah.” He explained in a televised interview on October 22, “Hezbollah was already isolated in Lebanese circles for waging wars independently, disregarding the views of Lebanese citizens and the government.” 

Al-Amin also pointed out that Hezbollah’s support significantly elevated Bassil’s political power, granting him influence in both ministerial and parliamentary roles. Yet, as Hezbollah faces setbacks, Bassil now seeks to distance his movement from Hezbollah’s political risks.

Observers have noted a narrowing gap between Bassil’s FPM and the Lebanese Forces party led by Samir Geagea, which opposes Hezbollah. Both parties share an underlying “political Maronitism,” prioritizing Christian interests within Lebanon’s sectarian system while expressing concern over perceived threats to the Christian role in Lebanese governance.

The FPM’s split from Hezbollah raises questions about the impact on Lebanon’s political landscape, where alliances and consensus are vital for electoral outcomes. Hezbollah has granted the FPM significant political leverage, from securing Michel Aoun’s presidency in 2016 after a prolonged electoral deadlock, to securing governmental and administrative gains. In turn, the FPM provided Hezbollah a Christian political cover, enhancing its military influence backed by Iran.

This alliance shift could lead to realignments that alter Lebanon’s political balance, potentially intensifying sectarian divides. Some analysts anticipate a new political configuration, possibly shaped by international pressures to establish a ceasefire, which could pave the way for fresh alliances and a new presidential election.

Meanwhile, the FPM itself faces challenges with a dwindling parliamentary presence after recent defections, including prominent figure Ibrahim Kanaan, head of the parliamentary Finance and Budget Committee, who departed in August 2024. Relations between the FPM and the Christian Lebanese Forces also remain tense, despite a Maronite Patriarchate-led meeting in Bkerki in March aimed at unifying Christian political parties, with the pro-Hezbollah Marada Movement notably absent. This gathering sought to align Christian stances on key issues, highlighting ongoing efforts to stabilize internal Christian political dynamics amid broader shifts in Lebanon’s power structure.

Political Maneuvering

Lebanese writer Wajdi al-Aridi described Gebran Bassil's recent actions as a “reversal by the Free Patriotic Movement against Hezbollah.” He sees these moves as a political strategy that could help Bassil ease U.S. sanctions imposed by Washington. In a televised statement on October 23, 2024, al-Aridi speculated that efforts might be underway, discreetly, to lift these sanctions in exchange for Bassil distancing himself from Hezbollah.

Al-Aridi questioned whether Bassil’s departure from Hezbollah’s alliance could lead to new alliances, potentially with Islamic or Christian factions. He pondered if Bassil might align with the Lebanese Forces, although he deemed this unlikely, or with other Christian political groups.

The writer noted that Bassil’s shift from Hezbollah could be influenced by aspirations related to Lebanon’s presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as by his assessment of the Christian landscape and Hezbollah’s recent challenges.

In Lebanon, political alliances often risk sectarian entrenchment, especially following security or military incidents. On September 5, 2024, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea stated that the fragmentation of the Free Patriotic Movement serves Lebanon’s interests, as the group had fostered significant corruption, citing the electricity file as a prime example. Regarding Hezbollah, Geagea stated that collaboration with the group would only be possible if it adopted a Lebanese agenda, limiting current engagements to parliamentary activities.

Geagea emphasized the importance of maintaining a “fine line” with Hezbollah to potentially draw it toward a purely Lebanese focus.

Bassil’s maneuvers occur alongside other notable political activity, such as a press conference held by former Lebanese presidents Amine Gemayel and Michel Suleiman, along with former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, at Gemayel’s residence in Bikfaiya on October 23, 2024. Gemayel outlined a multi-point statement calling for an immediate ceasefire under UN Resolution 1701, unrestricted presidential elections, formation of a national rescue government, restoration of state authority across all Lebanese territories, and implementation of comprehensive reforms.

Coinciding with these developments, Future TV, founded by former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 1993, relaunched its online presence on social media in October 2024 after being halted in late 2019. The announcement rekindles expectations for Saad Hariri’s political re-engagement, following his suspension of political activities and his temporary withdrawal from the Future Movement on January 24, 2022.