Worrying Races: How Trump Is Redrawing the Republicans’ Strategy Before the 2026 Elections

The Republican Party is facing a genuine crisis as the midterm elections approach, with growing voices within the party warning of the potential loss of the House of Representatives and the erosion of their Senate majority, fueled by rising voter anger over the economy and the healthcare crisis.

President Donald Trump is currently engaged in an unusually early campaign to influence the 2026 midterms, a move Republicans say reflects his declining popularity and the high stakes for his political future.

Trump's recent activities include regular calls to his political allies, consistent monitoring of polls and fundraising events, as well as his direct endorsement of at least 16 Senate candidates and some 47 House candidates.

Losing the House majority poses a direct threat to the Republican leader, as it could allow Democrats to reopen impeachment proceedings against him for a third time, after similar attempts between 2017 and 2021, all of which ended with the Senate acquitting him during his first term.

New Agenda

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Democrats appear more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting in next year's congressional elections following recent Democratic victories in state and local contests.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be up for election next year, as will 35 seats in the 100-member Senate. Republicans currently control both houses of Congress.

Democratic morale has been largely low since Trump's presidential victory last year, but it rebounded in the November 4 elections when they swept the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the mayoral race in New York City.

In a series of subsequent meetings, Trump urged his aides to focus the party's messaging on affordability and to promote what he considers progress in lowering prices.

The administration has reduced tariffs on some food items, but overall prices remain high.

Trump’s current engagement includes near-daily policy briefings, a flurry of calls to allies, and detailed reviews of polls and campaign finance data.

Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to 38%—its lowest point this year—amid public anger over the economy.

Some Republicans have warned that the unpopular president is costing his party seats in a historic way.

His recent reversal on releasing the Justice Department’s files on Jeffrey Epstein has also raised questions about his political influence.

Trump insists the new tax cuts will boost Republicans, saying the larger tax refunds in April will ease voter discontent over prices.

But analysts say taxes don’t directly address the cost of living and may not change voters’ minds.

Republican advisers see the 2026 midterms as a battle for the president’s survival, noting that if the party loses control of either house of Congress, Democrats could obstruct his agenda and potentially initiate new impeachment proceedings.

Trump recently persuaded several representatives to drop their bids for state-level office to avoid fracturing the party.

Trump said one reason for the Republicans’ poor performance this year was that his name wasn’t on the ballot.

Therefore, Trump plans to lead the 2026 campaign himself, focusing on tax cuts and energizing low-turnout voters.

Democrats, for their part, say they welcome Trump’s increased public appearances, believing they will energize their base.

Electoral Districts

The U.S. is witnessing unprecedented preparations for the 2026 midterms, following a wave of retirements in Congress.

These retirements could pave the way for fiercely contested elections and reshape the balance of power in the House of Representatives and the Senate during the final two years of Trump's term.

So far, 10 senators and 41 House members have announced they will not seek reelection. There are more Republicans signaling their desire to exit Washington (28) than Democrats (23).

Among the most prominent departures in the Senate are Mitch McConnell, Dick Durbin, Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Tina Smith.

In the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Michael McCaul, David Schweikert, Jared Golden, John James, and Angie Craig will all be leaving.

Meanwhile, the battle over redistricting has become a crucial arena that could determine the outcome of the upcoming House elections.

While Republicans had anticipated gains from the new maps, recent surprises have given Democrats an unexpected boost.

The most significant setback for Republicans came in Texas, where a federal court struck down their new map, which would have given them five additional seats.

This ruling followed a series of failures, including Republican lawmakers in states like Indiana, Kansas, and New Hampshire refusing to yield to White House pressure to pass new maps.

Republicans have so far only made significant gains in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, where they managed to draw up maps that would give them four additional seats.

As a result, criticism mounted within the Republican Party, with some of Trump's allies arguing that focusing on redrawing electoral districts was wasting time and resources instead of bolstering campaign efforts.

In contrast, the Democrats moved quickly, drawing up a new map in California that could potentially give them five seats, and a similar plan in Virginia that could grant them two or three seats, in addition to a strong chance of winning a seat in Utah. This could bring their total gains to nine seats.

The Democrats are also continuing their efforts to redraw electoral districts in states like Maryland and Illinois.

Despite these developments, the battle remains open, as potential changes could benefit the Republicans, particularly in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana.

Political analyst Ibrahim Khatib told Al-Estiklal that the upcoming elections will indeed be affected by Trump's current popularity, especially as Generation Z is urging him to focus on domestic issues such as healthcare, education, taxes, and budget allocations.

But he noted that Trump is currently employing his political acumen by focusing on domestic issues and postponing ambitious foreign policy initiatives to repair his image and secure his party's support in the upcoming elections.

He predicted that the next elections will be subject to a system of power-sharing between Democrats and Republicans, making the results in some states contingent on the balance of power between the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Tough Battle

The results of the local elections held on November 4 in New Jersey, Virginia, and other states have sounded a resounding alarm bell within the halls of Congress.

In Virginia alone, Democrat Abigail Spanberger swept the gubernatorial race by a staggering 15%, while her party gained more than 12 seats in the House of Delegates, including districts not originally considered Democratic strongholds.

One Republican senator bluntly described the situation, saying, “The numbers are catastrophic. Republicans didn’t win anywhere in this election cycle.”

In a more serious development for the party’s future, Democrats achieved their largest lead this year in general congressional polls, with 46.8% compared to 41.4% for Republicans.

These alarming figures come at a time when the economy is clearly slowing, with prices and the cost of living continuing to rise—issues for which voters hold the ruling party responsible.

Republican lawmakers acknowledged that healthcare, particularly the soaring premiums and overall medical costs, is a major stumbling block for the party in the upcoming elections.

Senator Thom Tillis, representing the swing state of North Carolina, which is being targeted by Democrats, warned that if the party remains on its current trajectory at the start of the second quarter of 2026, it will face a very difficult time in November.

In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a relatively comfortable majority of 53 seats to 47 for the Democrats.

However, Republican lawmakers expect their party to lose at least three seats in the current political climate, particularly in Tillis’s North Carolina.

This is in addition to Maine, where Senator Susan Collins is running for reelection, and Ohio, where Senator Jon Husted is facing a tough challenge from former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who has served three terms in the Senate.

Despite Trump winning Ohio by more than 11% in the 2024 election, questions remain about Husted's ability to mobilize Republican votes without Trump at the top of the ballot.

Democrats are also eyeing second-tier contested seats, such as Iowa, where Republican Senator Joni Ernst is retiring.

Additionally, there's Texas, where Senator John Cornyn faces a tough primary challenge from the controversial conservative Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Alaska, where Democrats are trying to persuade former Rep. Mary Peltola to run against Senator Dan Sullivan.

If Republicans lose three seats, they'll end up tied 50-50, but they'll retain control thanks to Vice President J.D. Vance's likely vote.

In the House of Representatives, the situation is far more precarious. Speaker Mike Johnson holds a slim majority of 219 seats to 213, meaning he cannot afford to lose more than three seats.

Indeed, a senior Republican senator predicted a loss in the House, stating realistically, “I expect to lose the House, and I'm just trying to be objective,” reminding everyone that the party lost 41 seats in the 2018 midterms.

Republicans are betting that they have ample time to improve their party's image before November, arguing that the Democrats' failure to offer effective solutions to control healthcare costs and the rise of far-left candidates give them an opportunity to maintain their grip on power in Washington.

A Republican strategist attributed the recent decline in Trump's popularity and the Democrats' advance in the polls to a sharp reaction to the 43-day government shutdown, predicting that this effect would fade over the coming months.

On the other hand, the resignation of prominent Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a leading figure in the MAGA movement, came as a surprise, revealing deep divisions within the party that could threaten its political future.

Her decision to resign came after Trump called her a traitor and withdrew his support, threatening to back a rival in the primaries.