With Mohamed Bin Zayed Assuming the Presidency of the UAE, These Are the Candidates for Crown Prince Position

Less than 24 hours after the death of the President of the UAE, Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, at the age of 73, the Supreme Council of the State "elected" the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed, as a new president.

This came despite speculations, which were quickly extinguished, about a possible dispute over the presidency and subsidiary positions between the Al Maktoum and Al Zayed families. Thus, Mohammed would be the fifth president of the Emirates.

This urgent transfer, on the first day of a month-long deadline for the family’s selection of a new president, was expected because Mohammed bin Zayed had consolidated his power and influence since his half-brother Khalifa suffered a stroke that paralyzed him in 2014.

Since then, Mohammed has taken over the affairs of the Emirates as a de facto ruler, limiting his rivals, appointing his sons and brothers to high security and leadership positions, suppressing his opponents, imposing his vision of hostility to Islamists, interfering in the affairs of the Arab Spring countries and normalizing relations with Tel Aviv.

Yet, the absence of a dispute over bin Zayed’s assumption of the position of head of state within the ruling family is one thing, and the dispute over the position of the new crown prince of Abu Dhabi is another thing, as it is a point that observers believe may need a period of time to be resolved.

There is no article in the UAE constitution that regulates the selection of the crown prince, so the custom has become to share positions by mutual understanding between the children of the founder of the state, Sheikh Zayed.

However, expectations differ about the mechanism that bin Zayed will follow in choosing his successor.

International reports indicate that the current situation is similar to what happened after the death of the father, Sheikh Zayed bin Al Nahyan, where Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Al Ketbi, his wife, postponed the announcement of his successor, that is, the Crown Prince, until the completion of internal arrangements.

At that time, the mandate of the Emirate’s reign went to the next brother in terms of age, in violation of the prevailing custom at the time, and it was arranged for Mohammed bin Zayed to obtain the mandate of the covenant, although it was the right of Sheikh Sultan, the brother of Khalifa.

Since then, the influence of Fatima's sons has expanded among the 19 males and 11 females, the total of the founder's sons from eight wives.

Abdullah took control of the foreign affairs file, Mansour took over the affairs of the presidency and the judiciary, Tahnoun tightened his grip on national security and intelligence, Saif controlled the interior, and Hazza took control over sports.

Therefore, it is believed that Fatima al-Ketbi, the wife of the late President Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, who is called the "Mother of the Emirates," will have an important role in resolving the current dispute over the appointment of a new crown prince.

 

Who is the Crown Prince?

The position of the next crown prince of Abu Dhabi is almost limited to four candidates, namely Khalid, the eldest son of Mohammed bin Zayed, and three of the latter's brothers.

They are: Tahnoun (National Security Adviser), Hazza (Deputy Chairman of the Executive Council of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi), and Mansour (Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Presidential Affairs).

According to Gulf and Western reports, it seems that the competition is receding more between Khaled and Tahnoun. The first is the eldest son and the one with the greatest luck because he has headed the State Security Service with the rank of minister since February 2016, and was Deputy National Security Adviser and main assistant to his father. While, Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is the director of Emirati intelligence and manages many secret internal and external files.

There are talks in the political circles in the Emirates, of two scenarios about the position of the crown prince, if it will be assigned to the son or the brother?

The first: Mohammed bin Zayed's appointment of his son (Khaled) as the new crown prince to quickly resolve the conflict, with compensatory privileges for the two brothers, Tahnoun and Mansour.

The second: That Mohammed bin Zayed appoints his brother Tahnoun, the current National Security Adviser, to the position of Crown Prince on a temporary basis.

Then, after a few years (between 2-5 years), he appoints his son Khaled as crown prince and removes Tahnoun, similar to what happened in Saudi Arabia.

Emirati opposition activists believe that Bin Zayed may persuade his brother, Tahnoun to give up, claiming that his role as the security and intelligence official in the UAE makes his actions or movements undeclared in order to facilitate a decision or a political position.

Tahnoun, who is known personally for his passion for martial arts such as karate and taekwondo, played roles in the Yemen war and the coups in Sudan and Tunisia.

He also had intelligence roles in cooperation with Israel and visits to the UAE's opponents, such as Iran, Turkiye, and others, in addition to other undeclared moves.

Andreas Kraig, a professor at King’s College London, favors the second option, he believes that Khaled has a stronger chance of being crowned crown prince, but the process may take place in stages.

 "Mohammed bin Zayed may rule for two decades or more... Therefore, Tahnoun can be named crown prince, while Khaled is actually being prepared for it," Kraig wrote in his tweet.

A similar controversy has arisen over the position of the crown prince in Saudi Arabia, as it was bestowed to Mohammed bin Salman—to the king's son instead of his brothers.

Two reports published by Bloomberg and the American Foreign Affairs magazine in the same month (March 2016) indicated that bin Zayed is the USA’s man who preserves its interests in the region, especially in suppressing Islamists and preserving the interests of Israel.

It described Mohammed bin Zayed at the time as "the architect of the economy and security in Abu Dhabi, the man of Washington and the enemy of Islamists."

As for Foreign Affairs magazine, which is issued by the US Council on Foreign Relations, it pointed out the need to strengthen US relations with the new generation of Gulf leaders, and not reduce its relations with them as wealthy countries that buy weapons.

 

Will UAE’s Policy Change?

Observers expect that not much will occur in the foreign and domestic policies of the UAE, but they believe that a conflict will likely revolve around the possibility of Mohammed bin Zayed ignoring the other emirates that complained during the Yemen war of sacrificing their sons.

Cinzia Bianco, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, expects not much will change in foreign and domestic policies, "except that Mohammed bin Zayed will have fewer reasons to seek consensus with Dubai and the other emirates."

In a tweet on Twitter on May 13, 2022, she noted that Bin Zayed's foreign policy by interfering in the affairs of the Arab Spring and Arab countries, against Qatar and the Yemen war, has caused internal disputes with other emirates due to the loss of their soldiers in the midst of this war.