What Lies Ahead for Wagner Mercenaries After Putin's Choice of Prigozhin's Successor?

The killing of the leader of the private Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, unexpectedly provided a new opportunity for the Russian Ministry of Defense and government to restructure this quasi-military organization. This came after it shook the Kremlin in a failed coup attempt at the end of June 2023.

Prigozhin, aged 61, was killed on August 22, 2023, in a plane crash north of Moscow, resulting in the deaths of all ten people on board.

 

New Leader

The private plane owned by Prigozhin was flying over the Tver Oblast near Moscow, carrying other top Wagner leaders when it crashed.

Dmitry Utkin, one of his closest allies and a key figure in Wagner, was also on board. Utkin was a former officer in the Russian military intelligence and an active mercenary in Syria, guarding oil fields there.

He was involved in organizing the Wagner convoy that attempted to march on Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin waited for two days after the announcement of Prigozhin's death, often referred to as "Putin's chef," to offer condolences for the victims of the private plane crash.

He described Prigozhin as a "talented businessman" wh o had made "mistakes" but had "achieved results."

Prigozhin had led a brief and unsuccessful armed rebellion against the Russian army at the end of June 2023, prompting Putin to call him a "traitor." Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko intervened and facilitated Prigozhin's exile to Belarus, along with a portion of his forces, where they would permanently reside.

In the aftermath of Prigozhin's "march on Moscow" two months prior, William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), predicted that President Putin will do everything in his power to seek revenge.

Now, after the removal of the head of the private mercenary organization, the latter faces scenarios, foremost among them the possibility of restructuring by the Kremlin and the appointment of a new leader closely tied to Putin.

Moscow intends to maintain Wagner as a quasi-military force and an invaluable tool for implementing its foreign policies across many continents worldwide.

The name of Colonel Andrei Troshev quickly emerged as the potential successor to Prigozhin and the new leader of the armed group.

Troshev is notable for being one of the founding members of Wagner in 2014 and has received the highest honors in Russia for his role in combat in Syria.

A former artillery officer in the Russian Army, Troshev was born in St. Petersburg in April 1953.

He currently serves as the Chief of Operations for Wagner's group in Syria, where Russia militarily intervened in 2015 to prevent the downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime following the 2011 popular uprising.

The Wagner rebellion posed the most direct threat to Putin during his tenure since assuming power in 2000, despite Moscow's denial of any connection to Wagner for years.

However, Putin acknowledged in June 2022 that the military group was "fully funded" by the state.

 

Under the Command of the Kremlin

As a result, military experts believe that the new leadership of Wagner will be receptive to Kremlin suggestions and viewpoints, avoiding any confrontations similar to those seen when Prigozhin was alive.

The latter had criticized the Ministry of Defense during the Ukraine conflict, particularly for alleged delays in delivering ammunition to his fighters on the front lines, which he attributed to potential "betrayal."

In a voice message on June 24, 2023, Prigozhin and his group of around 25,000 members declared themselves "ready to die" for the "homeland" and the "liberation of the Russian people" from the military hierarchy.

The invasion of Ukraine presented a significant opportunity for businessman Prigozhin to establish his true role in advancing his country's interests. Initially, the true founder of Wagner remained unknown, as the organization's hierarchy was shrouded in secrecy, with no official officials, documents, or registered headquarters.

The group was merely regarded as a private security and military company closely connected to Putin.

However, after years of staunch denial, Prigozhin publicly admitted on September 26, 2022, via social media platforms of his company, Concord Management and Consulting, that he had founded the Wagner group in May 2014 for combat in Ukraine and acknowledged the presence of its elements in Africa, Syria, and especially Latin America.

Consequently, Wagner caused chaos in various countries worldwide and was not content with just being a shield for the Russian army, wherever it was located, as part of new military treaties that Putin won with new allies.

Now, after the death of Prigozhin, the fate of Wagner groups abroad, which constitute a complex and profitable network of military and commercial operations established by the late Prigozhin for the benefit of Russia in Europe, the Middle East, Syria, the Central African Republic, and Mali, is in jeopardy.

However, Putin's recent move following Prigozhin's death indicates Russia's intent to assert control over Wagner as a force under its command. On August 25, 2023, President Putin issued a decree requiring members of non-regular armed groups to take an oath similar to that taken by soldiers in the army. According to the decree, as published on the Russian government's official website, all armed elements in Russia must pledge "loyalty" and "faithfulness" to Russia, "strict compliance with the orders of superiors and officials of the highest rank," "sacred respect for the Russian Constitution," "courageous defense of the country's independence and constitutional order," and the execution of assigned tasks.

The presidential decree coincided with the Kremlin's announcement that Wagner had no official legal existence, as Russian laws prohibit the formation of mercenary groups like Wagner.

Still, authorities turn a blind eye to the activities of these "private military groups," which officially provide "security services."

In Russia itself, Wagner operations had come to a halt following the failed coup against the Moscow military, suggesting that its requalification was underway, according to military experts.

 

Well-Structured

Currently, analysts anticipate only minor changes in countries where Wagner operates under official agreements with Moscow. John Lechner, a resident researcher in the United States writing a book about Prigozhin, stated on August 25, 2023, that "Wagner is a going concern. There are contracts, it is a business, it needs to continue."

In terms of credibility, Wagner will try to give the impression that things are normal, and it remains a partner, according to Lechner.

In Africa, the group may largely remain the same, either under new management or integrated into another Russian group.

However, Wagner's ability to operate in places where Moscow has no official or legal presence makes it an "invaluable tool" in the hands of the Kremlin for implementing its foreign policy.

For example, reports surfaced just one day before Prigozhin's plane crash that a Russian official had visited Libya to reassure allies there that Wagner fighters would remain in the country but under Moscow's control.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov informed retired Major General Khalifa Haftar (appointed by the Libyan House of Representatives as the commander of the army) during a meeting in Benghazi on August 21, 2023, that Wagner forces would be subordinate to a new leader.

In light of these developments, Libyan researcher Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute said in an interview with Al-Jazeera English on August 24, 2023, that there is no indication that the timing was just a coincidence, but Yevkurov's visit indicates that the Russian footprint in Libya may increase and expand rather than shrink.

Experts agree that Russia will eliminate any potential future threats from the remnants of Wagner, pushing Moscow to claim that Wagner was independent of the government, allowing the Russian leadership to disavow its past criminal military operations.

However, despite this, Amalendu Misra, a professor of international politics at Lancaster University, pointed out in an interview with TIME on August 24, 2023, that the Kremlin needs an organization capable of effectively doing its dirty work.

In conclusion, Wagner's strategic importance in Russian foreign policy cannot be ignored. In most cases, Wagner's business model aligned with Russian foreign policy, making it attractive to African nations that felt neglected by the West.