Serbia and Kosovo Tensions: Will the War Knock on the Doors of the European Continent Again?

From the first moments of the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022, the eyes of the world turned towards the European continent, especially the western Balkans, for fears of the outbreak of a new war in the heart of the old continent.

The tensions in the Balkans usually paved the way for large-scale wars on the European continent, like the First World War.

The Western Balkans includes six countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, and North Macedonia—all of them have not yet joined the European Union.

The geopolitical importance of these countries increased in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This prompted the European Union to intensify its efforts to help manage the region’s conflicts and move forward in integrating the countries of the Western Balkans into the bloc.

 

Features of Pressure

Despite that, tensions escalated in the Balkans during 2022 and reached their climax in December 2022 along the border between Serbia and Kosovo, coinciding with the latter submitting its official application for European Union membership on the 15th of the same month.

The Serbian Ministry of Defense asked the NATO mission in Kosovo for permission to send a limited unit of police and army to the country.

Meanwhile, demonstrators from the Serb minority closed some roads in northern Kosovo, and unidentified gunmen exchanged fire with the Kosovo police and threw a stun grenade at members of the European Union Mission (EULEX) charged with conducting security patrols in the region.

On December 27, 2022, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic ordered combat readiness for the armed forces and security services at the highest level. He also ordered his army commander to head to the border with Kosovo amid escalating tensions between the two countries.

The Serbian Foreign Ministry said that Belgrade was ready to intervene in case of an attack on Serbs in northern Kosovo and the southwestern region of Metohija.

On the other hand, the Kosovo authorities put their forces on high alert; Prime Minister Albin Kurti pledged that his country would defend itself forcefully and decisively.

This Serbian declaration came against the backdrop of the Kosovo government’s arrest of a former Kosovar police officer of Serbian origin, accusing him of assaulting officers in the national security, knowing that he had later declared his resignation from service among the Kosovar police, along with 600 other officers, to express his rejection of the Kosovar government’s plans to abolish Serbian license plates inside the country.

This angered the Serb minority residing in Kosovo, who considered the step part of the reprisals and repressive actions practiced by the Kosovar government against them.

The minority responded violently by organizing demonstrations, blocking the main roads connecting several cities in the country’s northern regions, and stopping the work of many existing schools there.

For his part, the Kosovan researcher in the affairs of the Balkan countries, Senad ef. Halitovic, believes in his interview with Al-Estiklal that behind all these moves, there is only one basic issue, which is “the recognition” of the Serbian municipal community.

In the Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo in 2013, it was foreseen to create a Community of Serb Municipalities, that is, municipalities with a Serb majority in Kosovo, which would have a special status.

However, although this agreement has been signed by the Kosovar side, it has not yet been implemented.

Halitovic added that since the ban on Kosovo’s access to UNESCO in 2015, due to Serbian pressure, the creation of the Federation of Serbian Municipalities was completely suspended.

Albanians said that the establishment of the Union of Serbian Municipalities could violate the sovereignty of Kosovo, while Serbia insists on the full implementation of the Brussels Agreement and the formation of the Union of Serbian Municipalities.

The researcher on the affairs of the Balkans, Senad ef. Halitovic, points out that the Kosovo authorities do not enjoy full sovereignty in the Serbian municipalities, especially in the north of the country.

Therefore, even the implementation of the basic powers of the state in northern Kosovo has always been difficult, and this issue, according to him, is central to the current relations between the two sides, as well as the cause of many tensions in the previous period.

 

External Roles

Kosovo declared its independence in 2008 but has not yet gained membership in the United Nations as an independent sovereign state.

Despite being recognized by about 110 countries, Serbia did not recognize the state of Kosovo, and still considers it part of its territory, just as Russia and China still consider it part of Belgrade.

There are five countries in the European Union, namely Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania, and Slovakia, that do not recognize the independence of Kosovo because of fears of separatist movements and similar ethnic minorities within its borders or because of close historical ties with Serbia.

The former Bosnian ambassador to Kuwait, Adham Pasic, said in his interview with Al-Estiklal that had it not been for the Russian attack on Ukraine, the Balkans would have been a field for a postponed battle because of the ethnic differences in the region.

Without NATO forces, Serbia would have invaded Kosovo a long time ago. In the presence of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who previously served as a minister in a number of governments of extremist Serbian leaders, according to Pasic.

He adds that the current Serbian president uses the Serbian Orthodox Church to fuel differences, whether in Bosnia or in Montenegro - despite its accession to NATO.

Such behavior, according to the former Bosnian ambassador, made the region as if it were living in the Middle Ages and vulnerable to extremist attacks at any time.

Russian involvement in the tensions between Serbia and Kosovo cannot be ruled out, as Moscow directly intervened in the context of the existing crisis.

The Russian Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated on December 28, 2022, that Russia supports what Serbia is doing to end tensions in Kosovo.

Peskov added that Russia has very close relations as a historical and spiritual ally with Serbia, pointing out that it is natural for Belgrade to defend the rights of Serbs living in the neighboring area amid challenging circumstances, and to respond firmly when its rights are violated.

Moscow also continues to provide its diplomatic and financial support to the Bosnian Serb nationalist leader, Milorad Dodik, who calls for the complete separation of the Srpska region from Sarajevo.

There are accusations that Russia was behind the failed coup attempt in Montenegro in 2016, as part of Moscow’s efforts to prevent this country from joining NATO.

The former Bosnian ambassador notes that the Balkan Serbs are working to implement the Russian president’s expansionist agenda and turn back the Russian Empire to its former glory.

He added: “If Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in Ukraine, the Balkan countries and perhaps other countries in Europe will be his next target.”

Pasic continues by saying that despite the enormity of the Russian attack on Ukraine, it sent a warning message to the countries of the European Union and the United States that the Russian threat might target the Balkan countries.

Thus, the two sides worked to prevent any tension in the region due to the dangerous messages that the Russian war on Ukraine held.

In the face of the Russian moves, the EU-Western Balkans summit in Tirana (the Albanian capital) on December 6, 2022, was the most successful summit of the European Union with the countries of the Western Balkans. Because all heads and representatives of the highest levels of power in these countries, including Serbia, participated.

The summit resulted in the announcement that the European Union would provide the region with an aid package worth one billion euros to help households and companies bear the high costs of energy, in addition to supporting investment in infrastructure for renewable energy and electricity generation.

The European Union has also launched an economic and investment plan for the region worth 30 billion euros, aimed at promoting green and digital transformation.

An agreement was also announced to start reducing travel costs across the Western Balkans and the European Union starting in 2024, and to continue to do so gradually until 2027, in addition to the commitment to integrate the universities of the Western Balkans into the European Education Partnership program.

The European Union sets the settlement of the regional conflict and the normalization of relations as major conditions for both Serbia and Kosovo to achieve membership in the European Union.

This represents a strong incentive for both sides to ease tensions, especially since the exacerbation of the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo will not only disrupt the path of the two countries’ accession to the European Union, but will also have immediate consequences for their economies.

 

Efforts to Calm Down

Despite the alarming escalation of tensions between the countries of the region during December 2022, there are many supporting indications that the current situation is only part of the usual quarrels between traditional rivals in this region, but this does not in any way mean the outbreak of a new war in the Balkans.

The Kosovan government took the initiative to release the police officer whose arrest represented the first spark for the recent escalation between the two countries.

Serbia welcomed this step, as its Defense Minister, Milos Vucevic, stated on December 28, 2022, that Belgrade is ready to reach an agreement and that it has an open line of communication with Western diplomats to resolve the issue.

In the wake of the announcement of the release of the Kosovar officer from the Serb minority, Washington and European Union countries welcomed this step and called for more calm between the two parties.

The importance of this lies in light of the European Union’s efforts to calm the situation in the Balkans and reduce Russian and Chinese influence in this region, which represents an important strategic depth and a source of energy.

The researcher Senad ef. Halitovic believes that the war in Ukraine has led to increased pressure from the international community on the Serbia and Kosovo authorities to find solutions to mutual conflicts as soon as possible, in order to close the door to any potential conflict in the future.

Halitovic indicated in his interview with Al-Estiklal that Germany and France submitted a proposal regarding the settlement of relations between Serbia and Kosovo in October 2022.

In his public address on October 8, 2022, the President of Serbia presented the basic framework for this proposal: for Serbia to allow Kosovo access to international institutions.

In return, Serbia will receive quick admission to the European Union and substantial economic aid. But so far, there has been no significant progress.

Halitovic adds that Turkish efforts to maintain stability in the Balkan countries cannot be overlooked in light of Ankara’s strong relations with Serbia and Kosovo.

The researcher points out that Turkiye shows great interest in the Balkans, and it is certain that it constantly monitors everything that happens in these regions and will contribute to finding the best possible solutions for both sides.

It is expected, in his estimation, to calm the border tensions and escalating threats between Serbia and Kosovo and prevent them from turning into widespread ethnic unrest or turning into a confrontation between the two states.