Russia and Iran Benefit: How Niger Is Exacerbating the West's Losses in the Sahel

Last month, Niger unilaterally withdrew from a military cooperation agreement with the United States in counterterrorism efforts, which could lead to the expulsion of U.S. troops from the country, similar to what happened to the French army.

Niger's decision came after stalled negotiations between the United States and the junta that seized power in Niger in the middle of last year, following a military coup.

The ruling junta's decision could actually have repercussions on Washington's use of the military base it established in Niger at a cost of $110 million, from which it launches drones to monitor the West African region.

In this regard, there is also popular pressure to remove the U.S. from Niger, as thousands of people in the capital, Niamey, protested on April 14, 2024, for the immediate departure of U.S. soldiers from the country.

On the other hand, Nigerien and U.S. officials revealed that Washington accused the country's ruling junta of secretly looking into a deal that would allow Iran to access Niger's uranium reserves, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, noted that Niger was following in the footsteps of Mali and Burkina Faso — the three countries have formed a military alliance.

Western Influence

On March 16, 2024, Niger's junta spokesman Amadou Abdramane announced the immediate cancellation of the military agreement with the United States, which allows the U.S. presence of military troops and civilian employees of the U.S. Department of Defense in the African country.

The decision came after a visit to the capital, Niamey, by an American delegation headed by Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee and Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, General Michael Langley. The delegation discussed Washington's concerns about Niger's rapprochement with Russia and Iran.

During the meeting, the American delegation criticized the lack of progress in returning Niger to an elected civilian government.

But after three days of waiting, the delegation left without having met the country's military commander, General Abdourahamane Tchiani.

A day later, a junta spokesperson announced the termination of the military partnership that Washington had come to secure.

"Niger regrets the American delegation's attempt to deprive the sovereign people of Niger of the right to choose their partners," he added.

On March 29, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said that there were currently no plans to withdraw 1,100 U.S. troops from Niger, adding that talks on the issue were still ongoing.

These statements came one day after the military council said that Washington is expected to soon present a plan to withdraw its troops from the country.

Two days earlier, Niger's military commander discussed security cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone.

The junta's decision represents the end of the U.S. presence in the country, after ending similar agreements with the European Union last December, and the French withdrawal before that, which reflects negatively on the overall Western influence in West Africa and the Sahel region.

Although Niger received the largest U.S. military aid in West Africa, exceeding $1 billion during the last decade, it agreed several months ago to supply Iran with uranium after the visit of the Nigerien Prime Minister to Tehran last January.

It is noteworthy that Niger ranks seventh in the world in uranium production, according to 2022 data, and its production amounts to about 200 tons.

Russian Plans

This month, Niger's ruling junta signed a military cooperation with Russia, and the African Legion, the new name given by Moscow to the private Wagner group, recently began deploying on Niger's territory.

Subsequently, analysts considered that the West had already lost leadership of the war on terrorism in the Sahel region, in addition to losing its last strategic ally in this vital African region.

The Kremlin is likely to take advantage of the vacuum that the U.S. departure from Niger will leave to strengthen Russia's influence in the Sahel, similar to what happened in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Central Africa.

Hundreds of Wagner contractors, a private Russian military group, are in Mali, at the invitation of the country's junta, to assist in its fight against insurgents.

Earlier this year, a group of Russian soldiers arrived in Burkina Faso months after the junta-led nation expelled French troops from its soil.

Wagner mercenaries had previously operated in the Central African Republic (another former French colony) since at least 2018, training the local army and combating rebels in the nation's civil conflict.

Sources indicate that the first embodiment of the new agreement between Niamey and Moscow was represented by a Russian IL-76 cargo plane that landed last week at Niamey Military Airport.

On board were the Russian plane, an advanced air defense system, and dozens of Russian military trainers from the African Corps, which has become described as Russia's powerful military and economic arm in Africa.

In its first comment on the arrival of Russian weapons and soldiers, the country's junta described Russia as a historic ally of Niger in the field of security and stability and also described the air defense system as a strategic gain.

The Americans had previously informed Niger's leaders that they would not accept any cooperation between them and the Russian Wagner Group, and they sent explicit warnings in this regard.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, in several statements last August, days after the military coup in Niger, that Wagner is exploiting the turbulent situation in Niger.

In addition, there are also ambitious Russian economic plans, represented by the establishment of a Russian railway corridor project linking the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso to Libyan ports via Niger, which will give a major boost to Russian mining operations in the region.

American Support

On the other side, Washington is still keen to contain tensions with Niamey and may be able to delay the process of withdrawing its forces and the actual evacuation of its military bases from Niger for a year or more.

Analysts believe that it is possible for the United States to reach a new agreement with Niger that will enable it to retain some of its forces, as sectors of the Nigerien army are still leaning toward Washington, and some of them may seek to attempt a coup against Tchiani with American support.

Washington had shifted its regional operations center to Niger to confront armed groups in the region after the wave of military coups witnessed by Mali and Burkina Faso in 2021 and 2022.

In its security operations in the Sahel and West Africa over the past years, Washington has relied mainly on a large drone base in the north of the country (Agadez), which provides the ability to monitor everything that goes on in the Sahara Desert due to its strategic location.

Unofficial reports also indicate the presence of a secret American military base affiliated with the Intelligence Agency in the city of Dirkou, in the far north-east of Niger, near the borders with Libya, Algeria, and Chad.

Niger's recent decision brought to mind what the coup leaders did, immediately after they came to power, when they requested the departure of about 1,500 French soldiers and canceled many military agreements concluded with Paris. Indeed, the last French soldiers deployed in Niger left on December 22.

Therefore, since the coup against President Mohamed Bazoum last July, the United States has sought to maintain relations with the junta and was content with a partial suspension of its security assistance.

At the same time, Washington appointed an ambassador to Niger to strengthen the American presence and open channels of communication with the new leaders, with the aim of preserving its influence and interests and reducing the growing Russian influence.

In turn, political analyst Ibrahim Khatib explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that "the relationship between Niger's junta and the West became very tense after Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani came to power, as the junta began to cooperate with Russia, abandoning Niger's historical ties with France."

"Russia has begun to control the decision-making process within Niger's junta, which may generate an influence struggle between Washington and Moscow in the resource-rich African region," he added.

Mr. Khatib also expected that the United States would withdraw from Niger toward the Ivory Coast, Benin, or Ghana, in order to ensure the continuation of its efforts in the fight against terrorist groups in the African continent.