Qatar Takes on Role as Mediator Between Morocco and Algeria: What Are Its Chances for Success?

In light of its amicable relations with both nations and its historical track record of mediating inter-state reconciliations, Qatar has signaled its willingness to facilitate dialogue between Algeria and Morocco in a bid to mend long-standing divisions.

On August 16, 2023, during the weekly briefing of the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spokesperson Majed al-Ansari disclosed that Qatar's Amir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, had received a letter from Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune addressing bilateral relations between the two countries.

When questioned by Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper about whether the exchanges between Doha, Algiers, and Rabat indicated Qatari attempts to resolve the crisis between the two nations, al-Ansari responded, stating, "Qatar is committed to any role requested of it or that it can achieve within the framework of this regional vision."

He added, "Inter-Arab relations must be characterized by mutual understanding, and Doha is committed to that and actively working toward it."

Al-Ansari clarified that "the correspondence between Doha and Algeria pertains to bilateral relations between the two countries, and undoubtedly, mending the rift between 'brothers' is a top priority for the State of Qatar."

He continued, "Qatar believes in resolving disputes peacefully, especially in a region burdened with crises."

In early August 2023, King Mohammed VI of Morocco sent a letter to Qatar's Amir, focusing on "bilateral relations between the two fraternal countries and ways to support and develop them," according to Qatar's official news agency, QNA.

On another note, King Mohammed VI reaffirmed his sincere commitment to the approach of extending a helping hand to Algeria in realizing the aspirations of the Maghreb peoples for "unity, integration, and assimilation," as stated in his recent address commemorating his 20th anniversary of reign on July 29, 2023.

The Western Sahara issue remains a central point of contention between Algeria and Morocco.

Rabat has proposed an "expanded self-governance" solution to address the matter, while the Polisario Front advocates for independence and self-determination, a stance supported by Algeria, which hosts the front in its southern regions and provides it with financial and diplomatic backing.

 

The Qatari Role

Responding to Qatar's potential for playing a mediation role, Nabil el-Andaloussi, President of the Maghreb Center for Research and Strategic Studies, stated that Qatar is qualified for mediation due to its strong and exceptional relations with the leadership of both countries.

El-Andaloussi added to Al-Estiklal that Qatar's credibility on the regional and international levels, its ability to bridge differences, and its track record of successful mediations, such as its involvement in mediating between the United States and Iran, as well as mediations between Washington and the Taliban, Kenya and Somalia, the peace agreement in Chad, the Doha Agreement for Lebanon, and others, all contribute to its qualifications despite the complexity of these files.

On the other hand, political analyst Bilal Tlidi noted that the Qatari Foreign Minister, in his diplomatic statement, conveyed three distinct signals

In an op-ed article published in Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper on August 17, 2023, Tlidi continued, "These signals indicate Qatar's readiness to mediate between the two countries, while on the other hand, the absence of such mediation is currently evident."

The telegrams exchanged between the country's leader and representatives from Rabat and Algiers are interpreted as related to bilateral relations.

Tlidi observed that Qatar's diplomatic acumen added intention to these statements, showcasing Qatar's previous successes in mediations and highlighting Qatar's distinct role in achieving settlements.

The political analyst added, "Apart from the question of whether this mediation is present or initiated, it has become almost inevitable that there is a dilemma in the region that requires a solution. The ongoing dispute between Morocco and Algeria, especially regarding the Sahara issue, cannot persist indefinitely."

It is also not unlikely that the King of Morocco's assessment of Moroccan–Algerian relations in the 2023 Throne Speech may portray them as stable, signaling an attempt to thaw the ice and indicate that serious dynamics are taking place on the ground to make reconciliation between the two countries possible.

 

Multiple Initiatives

Ahmed Noureddine, an expert in international relations, points out that many Arab, African, and European countries have made several attempts to mediate between Morocco and Algeria in order to mend their relationship and defuse the conflict that drains the budgets of both neighboring nations. This is happening at a time when these budgets could be directed toward economic and social development, infrastructure, education, healthcare, and employment opportunities for citizens, particularly in light of the global and regional crises affecting the Maghreb region.

Noureddine stresses that the continuation of the conflict and the border closure deprives both countries of billions in trade, economic, tax, and customs revenues.

It also results in the loss of at least two percentage points from the annual economic growth rate, according to reports from the World Bank, and squanders thousands of investment opportunities and development projects for the five Maghreb countries.

Noureddine asserts that for any mediation between the two countries to succeed, there must be a fundamental and essential condition: both parties must accept mediation in good faith. Without this condition, any well-intentioned efforts are bound to fail.

Algeria has openly and officially rejected any mediation with Morocco, as President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has repeatedly stated in his speeches and media statements. This position has been reaffirmed by the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in official statements and through official diplomatic memos.

Noureddine gave an example of this rejection when Algeria's representative at the Arab League in Cairo refused to include reconciliation with Morocco on the agenda for the 2022 Arab Summit, which would have been an opportune moment for successful mediation and reconciliation.

Morocco has accepted attendance, reconciliation, and mediation despite Algeria's role as the aggressor and its ongoing dirty war against the Kingdom for half a century. Algeria harbors an armed organization that attacks Morocco, provides it with money and heavy weapons, and engages in diplomatic warfare against the Kingdom on regional and international platforms, according to Noureddine.

 

The Algerian Stance

Before any external mediation efforts, Ahmed Noureddine points out that Morocco has repeatedly proposed negotiations and direct dialogue with Algeria through official royal speeches.

Morocco has suggested the establishment of a joint high-level committee to discuss all contentious issues without taboos, a proposal that has been made at least four times since 2018, up until the 2023 throne speech.

Noureddine highlights that each time, Algeria's response has been negative and even escalatory, culminating in Algeria's announcement (August 2021) of the unilateral severing of diplomatic relations with Morocco and the closure of its airspace to Moroccan civilian aviation.

Algeria even declined assistance with Canadair planes to extinguish summer 2022 wildfires, while it requested support from European countries, including France, which occupied it for 132 years and carried out actions against it.

On the other hand, Said Mekki, a professor of political science in Algeria, welcomes attempts by countries to bring Algeria and Morocco closer and reconcile their neighboring relationship.

However, Mekki emphasized to Sputnik Arabic on August 17, 2023, that Algeria considers this as a matter between Algeria and Morocco, and it is up to Rabat to understand the Algerian perspective.

Mekki asserts that Algeria will not open its borders or normalize relations as long as there is normalization between Morocco and "Tel Aviv." He believes that Morocco is involving intermediary countries in a border and territorial dispute.

Mekki insists that any reconciliation process should be based on the self-determination of what he refers to as the "Sahrawis," including the inhabitants of the Tindouf camps in southern Algeria and the inhabitants of the southern regions of Morocco.

On the other hand, Algerian journalist Mohammed Muslim denies the existence of Qatari mediation between Morocco and Algeria and reaffirms Algeria's rejection of any rapprochement with the Moroccan regime.

He states in an article published on Echorouk Online, an Algerian news website, on August 15, 2023, that this position is due to what he calls "hostile acts" committed by Morocco against Algeria. This sentiment is echoed by former Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs and National Community Abroad, Ramtane Lamamra, during the announcement of severing diplomatic relations in August 2021.

The journalist emphasizes that the most accurate description of the current state of relations between Algeria and Rabat came from President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in an interview with Al-Jazeera on March 23, 2023, in which he stated that Algerian–Moroccan relations had reached a point of "no return," placing responsibility on the Moroccan side.

In December 2022, President Tebboune also told the French newspaper Le Figaro that the decision to sever relations with Morocco was "an alternative to a war between the two countries" and was the result of accumulations since 1963.

 

Conditions for Success

According to international relations expert Ahmed Noureddine, the success or failure of Qatari mediation in this situation depends on the presence of new regional factors or a serious internal crisis that threatens to escalate the Algerian situation, forcing the authorities there to reach an agreement with Morocco.

In addition, success would require internationally guaranteed conditions that leave no room for ambiguity.

The foremost condition is the recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over its Saharan territories, the closure of the Tindouf camps, the return of refugees, and the expulsion of leaders of the separatist front from Algeria, along with the closure of their offices.

Noureddine also emphasizes the need to compensate Moroccan victims of arbitrary and forced expulsion in 1975 and those from border regions who have been denied access to their properties since 1963 despite existing agreements that safeguard their rights.

Compensation for all Moroccan victims, including those from the el-Arja oasis in Figuig and other similar cases, is essential for the success of any new agreement or reconciliation between the two parties.

As for Nabil el-Andaloussi, the President of the Maghreb Center for Research and Strategic Studies, he believes that the most important condition for the reconciliation between the neighboring countries is to consider the strategic interests of both states and the danger of this conflict on their national security and political stability.

El-Andaloussi added, speaking to Al-Estiklal, that reconciliation does not mean a winner and a loser but should be based on the logic of common interests.

He further emphasized that "this reconciliation should also be based on the common victory over the existing challenges in the region that is threatened by the possibility of explosion and instability at any moment.

"Recent events in Niger, such as the military coup against President Mohamed Bazoum at the end of July 2023, could be one of the incentives to seriously search for a solution that does not harm anyone."