Pressures and Challenges: Will Trudeau Become the First Political Victim of Trump’s Return?

The fallout from US President-elect Donald Trump's return is beginning to hit Canada, as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has suffered a series of setbacks, including the resignation of one of his key allies, Chrystia Freeland, from his government this week.

Trudeau’s political crisis has also worsened as he has lost much of the support of his Liberal Party, to the point that some members have announced their defection from the party.

Following the resignation of Freeland and blowback from within the Liberal party, Trudeau said he would reflect upon criticisms of his leadership.

Canada’s Conservatives and a large segment of the Liberal Party accuse the prime minister of not doing enough to counter Trump’s threats to impose high tariffs on Canadian imports, up to 25%.

In addition, according to his critics, Trudeau has avoided responding to Trump’s mockery of him, when he previously described him as ‘the governor of the 51st American state’, in a clear disregard for Canadian sovereignty.

Last week, Trudeau carried out a major cabinet reshuffle that affected a third of the ministries, without considering the political crisis that could lead to his and his government’s downfall.

High Tariffs

While relations between the United States and Canada have long been distinguished, the approaching inauguration of Trump on January 20, 2025, has raised many questions, especially his threats to impose tariffs on Canadian goods.

Trump’s America First policy represents an existential threat to the Canadian economy, according to Canadian officials.

A survey conducted between December 11 and 18, 2024, by the lobby group Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters found that Trump’s threatened tariffs could be devastating to Canadian businesses and workers.

Observers suggest that the continued threat of tariffs could prompt Canada to seek to diversify its trade relations with other global powers, such as China and the European Union.

On November 29, Trump hosted Trudeau on an unannounced visit after the president-elect threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods.

Trump told Trudeau that Canada had failed to deal with the US border by allowing large amounts of drugs and illegal immigrants from more than 70 countries to cross.

Trump’s enthusiasm grew when he talked about the US trade deficit with Canada, which he estimated at more than $100 billion.

He also suggested that if Trudeau couldn’t meet his list of demands without exploiting the US on trade, Canada might actually need to become a state or two, and Trudeau could become governor.

Diplomatic Tension

Trump’s comments suggesting that Canada could become the 51st state, and his description of Canadian PM Justin Trudeau as the governor of the superstate of Canada, reflect a disregard for Canada’s sovereignty, a think that many have opposed.

While this rhetoric is presented in jest, it represents a fundamental challenge to Canada’s independence and territorial integrity.

Thus, such statements, coupled with policies that emphasize US hegemony, create an environment in which Canada feels compelled to make uncomfortable compromises in its foreign and domestic policies to avoid escalating tensions with its southern neighbor.

Trump’s expected policy toward Canada also includes pressuring it to manage illegal immigration in a similar way to Mexico.

While Canada has different immigration rules, Trump’s rhetoric suggests that the United States will continue to push Canada to adopt stricter asylum and immigration policies to prevent individuals from entering the United States via Canada.

Trump’s rhetoric, characterized by statements rejecting Canada’s sovereignty and ongoing trade threats, is likely to lead to long-term diplomatic tension.

While Canada is unlikely to sever ties with the United States due to the intertwined nature of their economies and security arrangements, the relationship could become more one of competition than cooperation.

During Trump’s first term, the Canadian prime minister and his team successfully renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and maintained a working relationship with the White House.

But he has also called Trudeau ‘two-faced’ and a ‘far-left lunatic’, and imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.

Political Scandals

Trump’s aggressive tactics have recently begun to undermine Trudeau’s leadership in Canada, as was evident in the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

In her scathing resignation letter, Freeland cited differences with her longtime ally over how best to confront Trump’s looming trade war.

She said Trudeau is playing costly political tricks instead of confronting Trump directly, suggesting he is putting his own interests ahead of those of Canadians.

Reports have suggested that the resignation of Freeland, who has been a key player in managing Canada-U.S. relations, could be a fatal blow to Trudeau, who appears unable to handle the serious political crisis.

Trudeau won successive elections in 2019 and 2021, but his popularity has steadily declined since as Canadians have become frustrated with political scandals, reneged promises and the economy, among other issues.

Voters also blame Trudeau for rising costs and a housing shortage exacerbated by more lenient immigration policies.

Trudeau’s political downfall solidified in recent months after the Liberal Party lost some historically safe seats in by-elections, prompting some in his party to call for him to resign at the time.

Observers say Freeland’s resignation has accelerated calls for the prime minister and his government to resign from his allies and party members.

Canadian media reported that 50 of the 75 Liberal MPs in Ontario withdrew their support for Trudeau during a meeting to discuss his future.

In turn, New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, a former left-wing ally of Trudeau, announced that he no longer supports the government.

The opposition also took advantage of the chaos in Trudeau's government, with three Canadian opposition parties calling for the prime minister to step down and hold snap elections.

This is not the first time Trudeau has faced significant calls to step down. In late October 2024, at a closed-door caucus meeting, Liberal Party members urged him to resign to avoid torpedoing the party’s chances in the next election.

The New Democratic Party, the Conservative Party and the Bloc Québécois (a Canadian federal political party) together have enough votes to pass a no-confidence motion against Trudeau when Parliament resumes next January.

Canada’s next federal election is due by law in October 2025, and could be held earlier if Trudeau decides to call it or if lawmakers trigger a vote of no confidence.

Public opinion polls have consistently shown the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by 20 points over the past year and a half.

Polls have also shown that if an election were held now, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would win decisively.