How the Haredi Draft Crisis Could Threaten the Knesset and Netanyahu's Coalition

Tensions between Israel's ultra-Orthodox parties (Haredi) and the ruling coalition have reached a dead end, following the failure of all attempts to reach a consensus on a law exempting yeshiva students from military service.

Added to this are calls by religious parties to withdraw from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, as well as opposition efforts to propose dissolving the Knesset and holding snap elections in the coming days.

In recent weeks, the Israeli army has begun sending draft orders to Haredi youth, and thousands of yeshiva students are now considered deserters and face the risk of arrest.

As a result, the Haredi parties again demanded that Netanyahu pass a law regulating exemptions for yeshiva students from military service.

These parties announced that they would wait until June 2 to introduce the law, and if no law is submitted, they will be obligated to withdraw from the government coalition or support a law to dissolve the Knesset.

The deadline passed without the ruling coalition being able to pass a law, and without Netanyahu even attempting to introduce any bill, thus erupting the current coalition crisis.

Although the Haredim, also known as ultra-Orthodox Jews, have repeatedly backed down from previous ultimatums, recent developments, including the Israeli army's plans to increase the number of draft orders sent to Haredi youth, have brought their relationship with Netanyahu to a breaking point.

There are three Haredi parties: Shas, a party representing Eastern Haredi Jews, and Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah, both of which are part of the United Torah Judaism coalition representing Western Jews.

Political Crisis

Israel's governing coalition, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing a deepening crisis that threatens its stability. 

Tensions are escalating between the Haredi parties and their partners within the right-wing government over a draft law for yeshiva students.

This crisis is no longer just a political controversy; it has become a political time bomb that could lead to the dissolution of the government and the Knesset.

On June 4, Israel's far-right Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, commented on the crisis, saying, “The government crisis is serious, and we are within an inch of an election that could mean losing the war.”

Matters escalated after the leaders of the ultra-Orthodox-Lithuanian community, Rabbis Dov Landau and Moshe Hirsch, refused to meet with Netanyahu to discuss the draft law, asserting that further talks were pointless.

Senior sources in the United Torah Judaism party also described the meeting with Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein, held on June 3, as a disastrous failure.

They noted that Rabbi Dov ordered support for the proposal to dissolve the Knesset, while Rabbi Moshe hinted at an imminent decision to withdraw from the coalition.

The division between Edelstein and the Haredi parties centers on the mechanism for imposing sanctions on non-conscripted yeshiva students, the required draft rate, and the demand to raise it to 50% within five years.

Edelstein is demanding immediate sanctions and the exclusion of national service as an alternative to military service, while the Haredi parties view these demands as an affront to their existence and religious identity.

Within the ruling Likud party, voices are rising blaming Edelstein for his stubbornness, amid warnings that any further escalation could lead to the disintegration of the entire ruling coalition.

Currently, approximately 80,000 Haredi men between the ages of 18 and 24 are eligible for military service and have not enlisted. 

The army has stated that it is facing a manpower shortage and currently needs some 12,000 new soldiers.

Hardline Position

While the Haredi Shas party, which is part of the government coalition and is led by Aryeh Deri, has remained silent, Channel 13 reported that the party is expected to vote to dissolve the Knesset on Wednesday if nothing changes.

With seven seats, United Torah Judaism does not have the ability to bring down Netanyahu's government on its own, and any effort to do so would require the effective cooperation of Shas, which holds 11 seats.

Netanyahu's coalition currently holds 68 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

In the same context, opposition parties, led by Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, Yair Golan's Democrats, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, announced their intention to submit a bill this week to dissolve the Knesset.

The actions of the opposition parties intersect with threats from the Haredi parties, bringing the scenario of snap elections closer than ever in “Israel”.

In light of the current political situation, it appears that reaching a formula for a law acceptable to all parties is extremely difficult. 

Indeed, any formula that satisfies the Haredi parties to overcome the crisis may be rejected by the Supreme Court.

On the other hand, the Haredi parties fear that their resignation from the government would lead to the imposition of a harsher draft law on the Haredim than currently proposed. 

Therefore, they are considering continuing with sanctions, along with negotiations over the text of the law, which will be presented to the Knesset for approval in the second and third readings.

Former Knesset member Ofer Shelah said Netanyahu was likely betting the Haredi lawmakers were bluffing, given the polls suggested they faced defeat in any early election.

Moreover, several members of Knesset from the ruling Likud party have threatened to oppose any law that does not lead to a real and widespread draft. Their position may harden if they feel Netanyahu's government is nearing its end and elections are inevitable.

The Haredi constitute approximately 13% of Israel's 10 million population and refuse military service, claiming to dedicate their lives to Torah study. 

They assert that integration into secular society poses a threat to their religious identity and the continuity of their community.

For decades, the Haredim have been able to avoid conscription upon reaching the age of 18 by repeatedly obtaining deferments under the pretext of studying in yeshivas, until they reach the exemption age, currently 26.

New Opportunity

Maariv newspaper revealed that Netanyahu is doing everything he can to avoid the expected fateful vote on dissolving the Knesset, although its initial approval does not preclude the possibility of obstructing it in the next three readings.

It also indicated that the Prime Minister is seeking to divert attention to his conflicts with the legal system and the deep state, which he constantly accuses of obstructing his political career.

The newspaper also focused on Netanyahu's efforts to turn the divisions among the Haredi parties into a political weapon, pointing to his traditional attempts to separate Degel HaTorah and Shas from Agudat Yisrael.

If his maneuvers succeed, Netanyahu could ignite a new split within Agudat Yisrael, potentially leading to the removal of the party's chairman, Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, from the political scene.

With this move, Netanyahu is giving himself a new opportunity to survive, even if it requires sacrificing one of the rabbis and ministers who have repeatedly helped him overcome previous crises.

Meanwhile, a Knesset member expected Netanyahu to sacrifice Edelstein, or grant certain concessions to the Haredim to buy time until next October, which, in Netanyahu's view, is the most appropriate date for snap elections.

This crisis comes amid the ongoing trial of Netanyahu on corruption charges, breach of trust, and bribery, and comes amid crises hounding his coalition and the possibility of its collapse.

A recent poll conducted by Channel 12 revealed that 57% of the Israeli public supports snap elections.

It suggests that Netanyahu's coalition would lose power if an election were held today, with many voters unhappy.

Political analyst Ismail Masalmani told Al-Estiklal that “Israel is approaching a moment of major political collapse. What's surprising is that the same religious parties that kept Netanyahu's ruling coalition together are the same ones that have recently been pushing hard to dismantle his government.”

He pointed out that “the Haredi draft crisis is not simply a dispute over equality, but rather a reflection of the fragility of Israeli identity and a symbol of the deep divide between religion and state.”

Mr. Masalmani concluded that “Israel today faces two possibilities: either reaching an agreement that satisfies the Haredim and preserves the prestige of the army and government, or holding snap elections that could completely reshape the political landscape.”