How Deep Are Iran’s Fingerprints in Syria’s Latest Sectarian Unrest?

The new Syrian administration succeeded in quelling the first attempt to ignite a 'sectarian strife' in the coastal region, the stronghold of the Alawite sect, following the fall of al-Assad's regime. The attempt bore the 'Iranian fingerprints' of involvement behind it.

Protests erupted in the governorates of Homs, Tartus, and Latakia on December 25, 2024, led by remnants of the fallen Assad regime from the Alawite community, who chanted sectarian slogans and calls.

Sectarian Strife

“Protesters came out after [a] video was circulated on social networks showing a fire inside the shrine of Sheikh Abu Abdullah al-Hussein al-Khasibi” near the Hanano barracks in Aleppo, northern Syria. He is one of the symbols and sheikhs of the Alawite sect. 

The Shiite cleric from the Alawite sect, Sheikh Luqman Badr Ghara, led the Latakia demonstration and threatened, saying, "We shall behead anyone who provokes us," while dozens around him chanted "Alawite - Oh Ali".

The Syrian Ministry of Interior, via Telegram, dismissed the circulating video as outdated, claiming it was filmed before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime on December 8, 2024, specifically in late November of the same year. 

The ministry suggested that unknown groups were behind the violence depicted.

The Ministry, under the new Syrian administration, emphasized that those distributing the video appeared to be attempting to incite a sectarian conflict within the country.

Hours after the protests erupted, security forces intervened, pursuing remnants of the former regime and arresting dozens of its supporters.

In a surprising turn, Sheikh Luqman Ghura, aged 70, appeared in a video where he apologized to the Syrian people and pledged his allegiance to the new administration, acknowledging its leadership under Military Commander Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Not stopping there, Ghura took the opportunity to denounce Iran, stating in the video that it had come to Syria "to occupy it," and vehemently asserted that "he does not belong to Iran."

Sheikh Luqman Badr Ghura, a Syrian cleric from the coastal city of Latakia, is a follower of the Iraqi Shiite cleric Sadeq al-Husseini al-Shirazi, who resides in Qom, Iran.

When Iran intervened in Syria in 2012, the influence of the Shirazi faction grew significantly, particularly in the southern Damascus district of Sayyida Zeinab. 

It was during this period that Sheikh Ghura became more closely aligned with them.

Ghura was a frequent visitor to the “Zaynabiya Seminary” in Damascus, the first Shiite religious institution in Syria and the third of its kind in the world to be affiliated with the Shirazi movement.

The recent protests coincided with an ambush by remnants of Bashar al-Assad regime, which resulted in the deaths of 14 security personnel and the injury of 10 others in the western coastal province of Tartus. 

The attack was reportedly aimed at the new security forces overseeing the administration of the post-Assad era, as confirmed by Mohammed Abdul Rahman, the Interior Minister in the new administration, in a statement to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA). 

On the day following the protests, Syrian authorities made significant arrests. 

On December 26, they captured Mohammed Kanjou al-Hassan, the former head of military judiciary, known for his role in the field executions at the infamous Saydnaya Prison near Damascus. 

Hassan, along with 20 of his associates, was apprehended during a security operation in his hometown, Khirbet al-Ma'zah, in the Tartus province.

Following a series of raids targeting remnants of the former regime in coastal villages, the new Syrian security forces were able to restore calm and enforce their control over the region. 

The Ministry of Interior confirmed its ongoing pursuit of al-Assad loyalists who have fled to Russia.

The Alawite community in Syria, to which Sheikh Ghura belongs, is estimated to number around 4 million people, constituting a significant portion of Syria's total population of 24 million.

The Syrian Interior Ministry’s rapid response to restore order in the provinces of Homs, Tartus, and Latakia, as well as its efforts to track down those inciting "sectarian strife" in these areas, has been evident.

Large military reinforcements were deployed to the Mediterranean coastal provinces of Tartus and Latakia, signaling a firm commitment to quelling unrest.

Meanwhile, on December 26, representatives of the Alawite civil society in Homs, central Syria, issued a call to reject sectarian rhetoric, halt media incitement, and surrender weapons to the relevant authorities within five days. 

The statement, broadcast through social media platforms, ended with a clear message: "We call on the high command to take a firm stance against anyone who seeks to destabilize the security and social peace, to protect lives and public property. Long live Syria, free and proud, for all Syrians."

Similarly, notable figures from Latakia issued a video statement urging an end to the “sectarian strife” and the blocking of attempts by the “fallen regime” to stir sectarian divisions among Syrians.

Iran’s fingerprints

Iran’s dissatisfaction with the success of the Syrian revolution has been anything but subtle. 

In fact, it was expressed provocatively by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who called on Syrian youth to “stand firm and resolute” against those responsible for the security chaos, referring to the situation as a deliberate act by unnamed adversaries.

"I predict an emergence of an honorable and strong group in Syria. The Syrian youth have nothing left to lose. Their universities, schools, homes, streets, and lives are filled with insecurity. What are they supposed to do? They must stand firmly against those who orchestrated and perpetrated this insecurity and inshallah overcome them," Khamenei stated in a speech aired by Iranian state television.

In response, Asaad al-Shibani, the Foreign Minister in Syria’s transitional government, warned Iran against "spreading chaos" in the country, urging Tehran to respect Syria’s sovereignty, independence, and the will of its people.

“Iran must respect the will of the Syrian people, the sovereignty of the country, and its territorial integrity. We warn them against spreading chaos in Syria and hold them accountable for the repercussions of the latest remarks,” Shibani wrote on X.

Commenting on the situation, Syrian researcher Ahmed al-Fadhel told Al-Estiklal that following Khamenei's remarks and those of his foreign minister, which seemed to threaten the Syrian revolutionaries, simultaneous protests erupted in regions with a significant Alawite population in Syria.

“The reality is that no rational person can deny the presence of some form of organisation behind these movements in Alawite areas, which poses a challenge to the Syrian authorities. The government is reluctant to begin its rule by banning protests, but it also does not want to be dragged into violent confrontations with the regime’s remnants in these Alawite strongholds,” al-Fadhel added.

"The events unfolding on Syria’s coastal region cannot be separated from Iran’s statements, nor from the security campaign launched by the new administration against the remnants of the Assad regime."

"Particularly given the many questions surrounding the timing and widespread circulation of the video showing the burning of the shrine in Aleppo, as well as the simultaneous protests in Alawite areas, it is difficult not to assume some form of organized movement behind these actions," al-Fadhel continued.

Since the fall of al-Assad’s regime, the new Syrian administration has established centers for the collection of weapons from former regime soldiers and officers across the provinces. 

Thousands have accepted the terms of the security settlement, while others remain in hiding.

Protection of Criminals

Syrian researcher Abbas Sharifeh linked the events in Syria's coastal region to an "attempt by remnants of the regime, implicated in war crimes and crimes against humanity, to divert attention away from the issue of transitional justice and accountability."

"After their failure to pressure the leadership in Damascus into issuing a general amnesty for their crimes, particularly those related to personal grievances, they are now framing the process of accountability and transitional justice as an attack on the Alawite community," Sharifeh added on X.

Sharifeh urged the Alawite community to distance itself from those stirring sectarian strife and to avoid being dragged into a sectarian war, in order to allow the criminals to escape unscathed.

Notably, after the new Syrian administration successfully "quenched the sectarian unrest at its roots" in Alawite strongholds, Iran's foreign ministry issued a statement expressing surprise at the “accusations directed at Iran for intervening in the Syrian affairs and the protests that took place.”

According to the statement, "We emphasize the necessity of ensuring security for all segments of the Syrian people and preventing the expansion of unrest." 

"Our stance on Syria is to support the territorial integrity of the country, the establishment of a political system that includes all parties, and respect for the rights of minorities," it continued.

In this context, Sobhi Tfaily, the first Secretary-General of Hezbollah in 1989, said "A word of advice to the remnants of Bashar and Khamenei's thugs: I had previously advised Bashar to hand over Syria with guarantees for him and his followers, but he missed that opportunity."

Tfaily, a vocal critic of Iran's policies in Lebanon and Syria, wrote on X, “I now advise you, before it's too late, to immediately apologize for your wicked strife, your divisive slogans, and the malevolent acts that have jeopardized Syria's security. I urge you to embrace good citizenship and thank the authorities for their tolerance, before provoking the wrath of the Syrian people—a fury that no regret will undo.”

"I warn you, the instigators—whether Persians, Arabs, or Westerners—who want to use you as fuel for their nefarious agendas to tear apart our country. Let our near and distant past serve as a lesson for all,"

"The devil’s dream of paradise is closer than your dream of dividing Syria and establishing an Alawite state," Tfaily added.

It is worth noting that the new administration in Syria, since taking power, has focused on reopening embassies and establishing new diplomatic relations with various countries. 

However, the issue of reopening the Iranian embassy in Damascus remains unclear.

This comes especially after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi commented in an interview with the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) that "Syria faces an uncertain future."

"Those who believe that certain victories have been secured should not rejoice too soon," Araghchi noted.