Has Washington Pressured Muscat to Expel the Houthis Amid Mediation Setbacks?

Amid fast-moving developments that have diminished Iran’s influence in the Middle East, Yemeni media leaks suggest that the U.S. is pressuring Oman to expel Houthi leaders from its territory.

After the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, reports indicate a growing push to pressure the Houthis, aiming to further diminish Iran’s influence in the region. Tehran has long backed these groups, as well as other factions in Iraq.

Since the onset of the Yemeni crisis and the Houthi militia's 2014 coup against the legitimate government, which led to their takeover of Sana'a, Oman has maintained relations with both the Yemeni government and the Houthis, frequently acting as a mediator between the two.

‘Houthis Out’

In recent developments in Yemen, local media outlets and Yemeni journalists have reported tensions between the Houthis and Oman, with claims that the Sultanate is preparing to expel Houthi leaders due to external pressure.

On December 15, 2024, Almashhad News cited unnamed sources describing Oman’s abrupt decision to expel Abdul Salam Salah (Muhammad Abdul Salam), the Houthis’ spokesperson, along with members of their negotiation delegation, reportedly in response to American and international pressure.

Oman gave the Houthi delegation a 72-hour deadline to leave its territory, the sources said. Meanwhile, Houthi leadership in Sana’a is reportedly attempting to negotiate with Omani officials to reverse the decision.

In this context, Yemeni journalist Faris al-Hemyari said, “The Houthi delegation and leadership in Muscat face the threat of expulsion from Omani territory.”

“The U.S. administration has requested Oman to expel the Houthi negotiation delegation, led by Muhammad Abdul Salam, along with all members of the group currently residing in the Sultanate,” he posted on X.

“The Houthi delegation, consisting of approximately 100 individuals, is preparing to leave Muscat with their families. Some plan to return to Sana’a, while others are heading to Tehran.”

Based on this, al-Hemyari predicted that “the U.S. may issue decisions to include Muhammad Abdul Salam, along with other delegation members and leaders of the group, on terrorism and sanctions lists.”

As of December 16, no official comment had been made by Omani authorities or the Houthi militia regarding these media leaks or the future of Muscat’s long-standing mediation efforts in Yemen.

Syria’s Repercussions

Regarding the potential decision, Yemeni writer and political analyst Nabil Albokairi told Al-Estiklal that “the information about pressure on Oman to remove Houthi leaders from its territory remains speculative and cannot be acted upon yet.”

“There is no doubt that the repercussions of the Syrian file will have a significant impact on the Yemeni scene. I believe Oman’s mediation role will diminish considerably, as Oman positions itself within the regional power balance.”

“The Iranian axis is now in substantial decline, which will reduce Oman’s enthusiasm for any mediation efforts in Yemen,” he added.

Albokairi questioned the effectiveness of mediation, noting that the repercussions of the Syrian situation are likely to be significant and have a major impact on Sana'a.

On December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria fell, and a transitional government led by Mohammed al-Bashir took over, appointed directly by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the commander of military operations and leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria.

Regional Shifts and Houthi Impact

In this regard, Yemeni political analyst Yassin al-Tamimi said, “The Houthis' arrival in Sana’a was part of a regional and international deal that allowed the Shiite alliance in the region to dominate key areas in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.”

In an interview with Al-Estiklal on the day Assad fell, al-Tamimi emphasized, “There are significant changes underway, indicating that this alliance may have fulfilled its geopolitical purpose, one that has notably contributed to the fragmentation and weakening of the region.”

“The axis presented itself as a champion of Gaza, but in light of the events in Syria, it has now become a sectarian alliance, rallying to push Syrians back into displacement camps instead of facilitating their return home.”

“A significant portion of the Houthis’ strength stemmed from the substantial supplies and support, both direct and indirect, provided by the Shiite alliance, including attacks on eastern Saudi Arabia and its interior in previous years,” he said.

“The Houthis were not behind most of the attacks on Saudi Arabia, but other parties carried them out and attributed them to the group.”

“Saudi Arabia, which once yielded to U.S. influence, is no longer in such a vulnerable position. This shift could pave the way for a political settlement aligned with the outcomes of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference, or it may lead to a more violent path aimed at eradicating the Houthis' military and political influence in Yemen,” al-Tamimi concluded.

On November 23, 2011, Yemen hosted the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference, during which a peaceful transition of power was signed according to the Gulf Initiative and its implementation mechanism in Riyadh, leading to the formation of a national unity government on December 7 of the same year.

Oman's Role

Muscat has hosted numerous rounds of negotiations between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia, with the most recent agreement reached in July 2024. This agreement focused on exchanging lists of prisoners between both sides.

On July 6, Abdul-Qader el-Murtaza, the head of the Houthi delegation on prisoners and detainees, stated, “We have agreed on several points, the most important being resolving the issue of Muhammad Qahtan and exchanging certain prisoner lists.”

Qahtan, detained since 2015, is a prominent leader of the al-Islah Party (Yemen's largest Islamist party) and one of four individuals included in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2216 of 2015, which mandates the release of these individuals by the Houthi group.

“Due to time constraints, it was agreed to resume negotiations in two months, during which both sides will focus on finalizing and approving the prisoner lists until the next round,” el-Mortaza said.

Oman is well-known for its role as a mediator in the Yemen conflict. It is the only Gulf country that refused to join the Saudi-led “Arab Coalition” formed in 2015 to intervene militarily in Yemen and stop the Houthi takeover of Yemeni territory.

Muscat has facilitated numerous joint meetings between the warring parties in an effort to peacefully resolve the crisis, with the first such meeting taking place in August 2015 after the failure of the Geneva Conference. 

That meeting was described as positive, and subsequent meetings continued with the involvement of international and UN representatives.

Oman’s strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway controlled by Iran, has allowed it to maintain a neutral diplomatic role in resolving regional conflicts, including those in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

Amid the worsening war in Yemen and mounting security threats, particularly in Saudi Arabia, which has faced missile strikes from Houthi rebels, Oman has stayed steadfast in its neutral position. Muscat points to its ongoing efforts to “support peace” in the region as the cornerstone of its approach.

While reaffirming its support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government and territorial integrity, Oman has also maintained warm ties with the Houthis, skillfully navigating a delicate balance.

At the same time, Oman has worked to manage its relationship with Iran, particularly as tensions between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia cooled after a China-brokered normalization agreement.

In 2015, Oman’s decision to join the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition in Riyadh underscored that its independent policies in the region, including in Yemen, are not aimed at undermining Saudi influence unless absolutely necessary.