As Israeli Aggression Continues, Will Syria Help Hezbollah Restore Its Strength?
After Hezbollah suffered an unprecedented blow with the assassination of its top military leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, reorganizing its internal structure has become a priority at this stage, leveraging the military strength it has built in Syria over the past decade.
According to experts, Hezbollah is now facing the “Israeli ground invasion equation” of southern Lebanon, following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, 2024, which targeted the party's central command in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
It is worth noting that eight Israeli soldiers were killed by Hezbollah fighters, and several others wounded, during three heavy exchanges with the Resistance along Lebanon's borders on October 2, 2024, as “Israel” continues to signal the possibility of a ground invasion.
Targeting Hezbollah's Infrastructure
In this context, Maariv, a Hebrew-language daily newspaper, quoted Israeli sources on September 29, stating that a ground operation in Lebanon would be limited if approved.
The day after Nasrallah's assassination, the Israeli army declared its readiness for a wider war, stating that a ground-operation option is on the table while acknowledging that Hezbollah still has the capacity to fire at “Israel.”
Notably, Hezbollah's military and human infrastructure was damaged for the first time since its establishment in 1982, as it lost weapons depots due to continuous Israeli strikes.
In addition to losing most of its senior leaders, who were assassinated successively, hundreds of “elite members” were injured in an unprecedented incident on September 17, 2024, when their wireless communication devices exploded across Lebanon, particularly in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Hezbollah's stronghold.
This has raised many questions about Hezbollah's ability to absorb this “biggest loss” in its history, recover, and regroup.
This is especially true since it now holds significant military weight in Syria, where its units have fought alongside Bashar al-Assad's forces against the opposition since 2012.
Hezbollah's strong involvement alongside Assad’s forces in Syria was a direct order from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, since 2012, sending thousands of fighters to prevent Assad's downfall and help tilt the military balance in his favor.
Hezbollah has managed to secure bases for its forces, establishing strongholds in several Syrian cities and concentrating them in areas near the Lebanese border.
This facilitates the movement and deployment of Hezbollah forces, allowing them to return to the southern suburbs of Lebanon, the party’s main stronghold, in less than an hour.
Hezbollah has also deployed air defense systems in the Qalamun Mountains northwest of Damascus, near Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley, which serves as its logistical and operational rear base, as well as in southern Lebanon, according to an analysis published on December 29, 2021, by Israeli Alma Research and Education Center.
Military experts believe that Hezbollah units spread across Syria, estimated at around 3,000 fighters stationed in fixed positions in several Syrian provinces, will serve as the “reserve force” for redeployment in Lebanon.
These Hezbollah units are based in Syrian villages and towns far from areas controlled by Syrian opposition factions, with their largest concentration in towns along the Syrian-Lebanese border in the countryside of Damascus and Homs.
Thus, tactically withdrawing these units is an option at this stage, while leaving a limited number of third-tier field commanders to oversee their positions and the foreign groups operating under Hezbollah’s command at Iran's direction.
Withdrawal of Fighters
Following the pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Lebanon that detonated in the hands of Hezbollah members, the party was forced to quickly withdraw hundreds of its fighters from Syria to fill the resulting gap in Lebanon.
At the time, media reports indicated that Hezbollah had pulled out at least 500 fighters from their positions in Syria, including Iraqis, who were stationed in Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo provinces, as well as areas in the Syrian desert such as the Palmyra Desert.
Recently, “Israel” deployed several brigades to the northern front, including the 205th Reserve Armored Brigade, the Golani Brigade (which fought in Gaza), the 551st Brigade, and other forces.
These forces have been training over the past months on various scenarios, including preparing for maneuvers and combat aimed at controlling objectives in terrain similar to that of Lebanon.
“Israel” announced the imposition of a military blockade on Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from rearming via Syria and Iran. This move coincides with ongoing airstrikes on Lebanese towns and regions that have left dozens dead, followed by recent clashes with the Resistance on Lebanon’s borders, resulting in the loss of eight Israeli soldiers.
Nevertheless, Syrian military and strategic expert Fayez al-Asmar dismisses the scenario of Hezbollah shifting its military strength to Syria.
“The Syrian-Lebanese border is closely monitored by Israel, from al-Qusayr and Qalamun to al-Zabadani and Mount Hermon, and movement in both directions is restricted,” he told Al-Estiklal.
Asmar noted that “Lebanon is now militarily besieged by Israel by land, air, and sea.”
Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar stated that the Israeli air force “will stop any arms transfers from Iran,” as quoted by Reuters on September 26, 2024.
Since September 23, 2024, “Israel” has intensively focused on bombing sites along the Syrian-Lebanese border to destroy what the Israeli army claims are routes for smuggling and transferring weapons from Syria to Lebanon.
Notably, “Israel” has also targeted both legal and illegal border crossings between Syria and Lebanon with airstrikes.
Hezbollah controls its crossings with Syria, separate from the official ones along the 375-kilometer border: al-Masnaa, al-Dabbousiyeh, al-Jusiyah, Talkalakh, and al-Aarida.
Rebuilding Internal Structure
In this context, Anadolu Agency reported on September 9, 2023, citing local sources in Syria, that Hezbollah withdrew around 1,500 of its fighters, who were embedded with Syrian regime forces, from various areas.
The sources noted that Hezbollah forces had pulled out from Brigade 46 in the western countryside of Aleppo, from the city of Saraqib and al-Quaryatayn east of Idlib province, and areas like Maarat al-Numan, Khan Shaykhun, Kafr Rumah, Kafr Nabl, and Hazarin in southern Idlib.
The fighters first moved to the city of al-Qusayr, which is fully controlled by Hezbollah in the southwest of Homs province, before heading to Lebanon, according to the sources.
Iranian fighting groups replaced Hezbollah forces, including the Afghan Liwa Fatemiyoun and Baqir brigade.
This suggests that Hezbollah has withdrawn nearly half of its forces operating in Syria since it entered into clashes with “Israel” on October 8, 2023, in support of the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza.
Despite these developments, military expert Colonel Ismail Ayoub dismissed the idea that Hezbollah would shift its military weight to Syria given the Israeli aggression it faces.
In his interview with Al-Estiklal, he said, “It is evident that Hezbollah is moving its forces from Syria to Lebanon, especially with the certainty of an Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon. The military operations, assassinations, and bombings by Israel are merely a prelude to that invasion.”
“Hezbollah's battle is now focused on southern Lebanon, especially after the strategic breaches by Israel, as the Israeli forces continue targeting Hezbollah leaders, destroying its communication networks, and bombing its weapons and ammunition depots.”
The military expert highlighted that “amid discussions of Hashem Safieddine taking over leadership of the party from Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah is expected to focus on consolidating its internal structure following significant damage to its human resources.”
Ayoub also pointed out that “Hezbollah's relationship with the Assad regime in Syria has recently soured, as the regime removed Nasrallah's pictures from military sites, indicating a growing rift between them.”
Nasrallah had stated in a televised speech in August 2024 that “Syria is not required to enter the fighting due to its internal situation,” adding that Damascus should play a supportive role instead.
Sources
- Israel rejects US-backed Lebanon ceasefire plan, hits Beirut again
- Eight Israeli soldiers killed in clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon
- Hezbollah Withdraws 1,500 Fighters from Syria [Arabic]
- Amid Heightened Caution, Hezbollah Withdraws Hundreds of Fighters from Syria [Arabic]
- Israeli Sources: Decision to Invade Lebanon Not Yet Made; Military Prepared for Action [Arabic]
- Israeli Air Force Commander: We Will Halt Any Transfer of Weapons from Iran to Hezbollah [Arabic]
- Maariv Reports from Israeli Sources: Decision on Ground Operation in Lebanon Not Yet Made, but Army is Prepared [Arabic]
- Hezbollah Deploys Air Defense Systems in the Syrian Qalamoun Region [Arabic]