After the Ukrainian Crisis, European Governments to Where?

The Russian war on Ukraine destabilizes the European Union both politically and economically, amid a significant rise in energy and food prices and unprecedented waves of inflation.

With the outbreak of the Russian war February 24, 2022, and the imposition of economic sanctions on Moscow, which threatened to stop gas supplies to its European neighbors, European countries entered into a severe fuel shortage crisis.

Two days before the start of the war, the European Union and the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US) imposed a package of sanctions against Russia.

However, as it targeted Moscow, it adversely affected the economic conditions on the European continent.

 

Successive Crises

Amid the Russian–Ukrainian war, President Emmanuel Macron’s government lost its parliamentary majority in the French National Assembly, on June 19, 2022, which means, according to observers, the start of political uncertainty that may lead to prolonged political paralysis in addition to the Uber Documents scandal that erupted on July 11, 2022, that related to a secret deal facilitating the company's control of the French transportation market.

It is an agreement that violates the law made by Macron when he was Minister of Economy under President Francois Hollande, a crisis that the current Elysee resident has to face.

In a second crisis, Bulgaria, which has joined the European Union since 2007, the government of Prime Minister Kiril Petkov fell on June 22, after a vote of no-confidence in Parliament.

Petkov, who took a strong stand against the invasion of Ukraine, blamed Moscow.

A third European crisis struck one of the largest Western industrialized countries, as the government of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson collapsed on July 7, 2022, after a series of resounding sex scandals in Parliament.

50 government officials and ministers also resigned, following the scandal of Johnson's parties at government headquarters during the COVID pandemic.

The collapse of Johnson's government comes after a statement provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 29, 2022, when he said: “He would not have invaded Ukraine if he was a woman.”

In a fourth European crisis that hit the third largest economy in the eurozone, was the collapse of the government of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi on July 21, due to the country's economic crisis.

With this fall, Italy is facing economic and social troubles due to inflation that affects Rome's budget, and pushes the markets to collapse.

In a fifth painful blow to Europe, Hungary, a member of the European Union since 2004, has breached the continent's isolation of Russia.

Its foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, visited Moscow on July 21, to ask for more Russian gas.

The Hungarian move was welcomed by Russia, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who confirmed that Moscow would respond to Budapest's request, which observers considered a step to European disagreement.

In unfamiliar scenes in Europe, many commodities have been out of the markets, and European queues have spread in front of the supermarkets, amid the high prices of most commodities, including fuel, bread and oil.

At a time when Italy provides food subsidies to thousands of families affected by the economic crisis, while France and Germany reduce their consumption of fuel, thousands protested in Albania on July 11, against the rising fuel prices, which reached 40 percent higher.

The challenges facing the old continent are increasing, between facing a record inflation of 8.6 percent, and alleviating the suffering of high energy prices and food costs for its citizens.

 

‘Finger-Biting Battle’

In his reading of the implications and impact of these events, the expert in international law and international relations, al-Sayed Abu al-Khair, said: "The Ukrainian war revealed the fragility of the European Union.”

In his interview with Al-Estiklal, he indicated that the countries of the continent are working at the national level, not for the benefit of a union that is actually on the edge of collapse and bankruptcy.

The Egyptian academic believes that the crisis may push the European Union to resort to China, reach an understanding with Russia, and lose the American ally.

He expected that "the Brussels Union will be subject to Moscow and Beijing after Washington efforts to implicate Europe in an economic war, which affected the economies of the continent, in addition to the latest government resignations in Britain, Italy and others."

Abu al-Khair went even further in his predictions, pointing to the possibility of the fall and disintegration of the European Union in the future.

He explained that the union is "based on the aid provided by rich countries such as Germany, which has begun to become restless.”

For his part, the Egyptian researcher and academic, Mohamed al-Zawawi, said that "the current crisis is a finger-biting battle between the major powers."

It is not excluded that "America planned this scenario by pushing Russia to the edge of the abyss and entering a war that it cannot continue, as happened during the arms race that it imposed on the Soviet Union and led to its eventual disintegration."

The lecturer at the Middle East Institute at the Turkish University of Sakarya explained to Al-Estiklal that "Washington has been provoking Moscow with its areas of influence for some time, and it has defied its red lines in Eastern Europe and elsewhere."

He believes that "undermining Russia's influence has a heavy price that America is willing to pay, unlike its European allies, who are not necessarily ready for that long-term war on the gates of their eastern front, given their dependence on Russian energy, which affected their economies and lives."

Al-Zawawi believes that “it is not conceivable that Europe would succumb to Russian pressure.”

He said that Europe and America's strategic alliance cannot be sacrificed to civilized and cultural conditions, adding, "despite the fragility of the economic and political conditions as well and the fall of governments, the option of surrendering to Russia is not on the table, given Europe's tightening of sanctions against Moscow in all areas, and the vast majority standing in that trench."

He indicated that "the West still has many tools to increase the supply of energy and force Russia to release shipments of Ukrainian grain and restore trade in these strategic commodities; otherwise, Moscow will be the biggest loser in the long run."

He concluded by saying: "then it is a finger-biting battle in which the person with the longest breath, the most planning and prepared for this global crisis, will win."

 

Fake Assumptions

In his assessment of what will be the situation in Europe amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the possibility of the collapse of the European Union, the expert on Russian affairs, Ashraf al-Sabbagh, indicated that "Russia did not cut off oil and gas, but rather Europe imposed seven packages of sanctions on it."

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, he pointed out that "the European Union has warned its citizens that they will suffer and pay the price of their freedom, and the price of a system of values ​​that has been entrenched in the last two centuries, thus, putting them before a historical choice: either to lose achievements, rights, and the system of values ​​by retreating in the face of Russia's invasion of a weak European state, or to preserve freedoms and achievements and pay the price.”

Al-Sabbagh stressed that "in light of this equation, Europe began to impose successive packages of sanctions against the extremist nationalist elites in the Kremlin and against the rest of the Russian financial and political elites, while isolating Russia financially, and depriving it of oil and gas revenues."

About the fall of Western democracies, he said: "We are facing 30 countries in the union, and there have been changes, according to the constitution and the system of laws and freedoms, in only three countries."

He concluded by saying: "Many ignore that the Soviet Union was defeated, fell and collapsed for internal reasons in the first place, and therefore, if the European Union collapsed, it would be for purely internal reasons, not as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine."