What Are the Reasons and Repercussions of Muharrem Ince’s Withdrawal From the Turkish Elections?

On May 11, 2023, the presidential candidate of the opposition Homeland Party (Memleket Partisi) in Turkiye, Muharrem Ince, announced his withdrawal from running for the presidential elections that will be held on May 14.

Ince’s sudden announcement came during a press conference after a controversy arose about leaks related to a sex scandal against him, published by people affiliated with Fethullah Gulen’s group (FETO), which is banned in Turkiye, according to Turkish media.

Since he declared his candidacy, Ince has been under fire by supporters of his former Republican People’s Party (CHP), whose leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu is running in the elections on May 14.

Supporters of the opposition bloc of six parties often accuse him of dividing the vote while they were united to defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Some even accused him of being a pawn Erdogan used to undermine the opposition.

Although the popular base of Muharrem Ince and his party traditionally votes for the opposition, there are questions and doubts about whether his withdrawal from the presidential elections will lead to the votes he would have going to the joint opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu.

 

Political Blackmail

In a bomb that shuffled the cards a few days before the elections scheduled for May 14, Muharrem Ince, leader of the Homeland Party, withdrew from running for the Turkish presidential elections, following great pressure exerted on him, citing blackmail over audio leaks and sexual scenes against him.

Ince said in a press conference that he was subjected to blackmail over the course of 45 days by people affiliated with FETO and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), pointing out the importance of his party’s competition in the parliamentary elections, and obtaining seats to represent Ataturk in the parliament dome.

He added, “I ask every house in Turkiye to vote for the party of the country that I represent,” stressing that talking about pornographic clips and pictures about it is incorrect.

He continued, “I will not allow them (referring to the opposition) to hold me responsible for their failure to confront Erdogan next Monday morning.”

Turkish media confirmed that the Public Prosecutor in Ankara had opened an investigation with suspects, on charges of extortion and threatening Muharrem Ince.

In a related context, the Turkish newspaper Sabah stated that what happened with Muharrem Ince is similar to what the former leader of the CHP, Deniz Baykal, faced in what is popularly known as the cassette plot.

“The event that prompted Ince to withdraw brought to mind the cassette plot that was hatched against Baykal in 2010 by FETO, and forced him to resign, so that Kilicdaroglu assumed the leadership of the party,” it added.

It indicated that there is new cooperation between the two parties, to elect Kilicdaroglu as President of the Republic.

Baykal was forced to resign at the time after a video recording was broadcast on the Internet in which he appeared with a woman in a bedroom, which caused an uproar in Turkish society.

It is noteworthy that the Turkish opposition had a fundamental plan since the beginning of the six-party alliance, by pushing for one candidate to confront President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and to gather all the votes rejecting the continuation of his rule in the first round.

Despite the success of the main opposition parties in rallying behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with all the differences that almost led to the Table of Six, they failed to prevent the candidacy of Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan.

In recent weeks, Ince was seen as a major threat to Kilicdaroglu, given that he was expected to attract votes affiliated with his former CHP.

Kilicdaroglu had invited Ince earlier to join the Table of Six, but the latter refused because of its relationship with the left-wing HDP, which is haunted by suspicions of links with the PKK.

In a statement he made a few days ago, Ince stipulated for the withdrawal that Kilicdaroglu abandon his two allies in the People’s Alliance, the head of the Future Party (GP), Ahmet Davutoglu, and the head of the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), Ali Babacan.

 

Old Resentments

Comments from Turkish politicians poured in shortly after the country’s presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew from the race.

At an election rally in Ankara when he heard the news, President Erdogan expressed his sadness over Ince’s withdrawal, adding, “I wish this race would continue like this until the end, but I don’t know what happened.”

On his part, the candidate of the opposition People’s Alliance for the presidency, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, invited Ince to join the opposition coalition and said: “Let’s put aside the old resentments. We are waiting for you at our table.”

As for Sinan Ogan, the presidential candidate and leader of the far-right opposition ATA Alliance, he wrote on Twitter: “We have just begun. Whoever wants to withdraw in our favor, please do so!”

According to Turkish media, Ogan canceled a gathering that was to be held in the state of Antalya and returned to the capital, Ankara, which indicates that he may also withdraw from the electoral race and leave Kilicdaroglu alone against President Erdogan.

Muharrem Ince considers himself the faithful heir to the thought of the founder of the Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and the most capable person to implement his visions.

He started his political career in the CHP and was elected as the party’s deputy for Yalova constituency during the 2002 elections.

Ince twice challenged Kilicdaroglu’s leadership in 2014 and 2018, but his efforts to lead his party were unsuccessful despite all his attempts to do so.

After a long struggle between Ince and Kilicdaroglu, Kemal pushed Muharrem in 2018 to be a presidential candidate in an unequal battle with President Erdogan, whose popularity was at the height of its strength. Ince did not achieve more than 30.67%, compared to 52% of the vote for the Turkish president. This failure reduced the masses of Ince as Kilicdaroglu had planned.

Indeed, Kilicdaroglu was able to remove Ince from the CHP. He announced his resignation in February 2021, and after that he announced the establishment of the Homeland Party.

Muharrem Ince announced that he is a final presidential candidate in the 2023 elections and collected 100,000 signatures for that and entered the race.

He was working during his campaign to win over voters through field trips and a dance similar to the dance of US President Joe Biden.

 

Who Benefits?

According to the Supreme Election Council (YSK), his name will remain on the presidential ballot, and votes for him in overseas elections wrapped up earlier this week will still be counted.

Muharrem Ince has not given clear directions to his voters yet, but he gave them an impression of his position when he stated that those who attacked him were members of FETO and the PKK.

However, observers believe that Ince’s withdrawal may be in the interest of Kilicdaroglu, especially since they share the same secular ideas and from one school, although they are traditional political enemies.

Meanwhile, others believe that Erdogan may get many votes from Ince’s voters, such as those who are not hardliners in their opposition to the Justice and Development Party (AKP), those who reject Kilicdaroglu’s leadership in the political scene, and those who oppose the alliance with the HDP and the PKK.

Perhaps the coming days will bring many changes and surprises, especially with regard to his wasting the votes from abroad that went to him, and the electoral paper that bears the names and pictures of the four candidates, which may affect the mood of the voters.

Most opinion polls indicate that Ince was not, at best, able to attract more than 1 to 2.5% of the general vote, and that it is impossible for his party to cross the parliamentary threshold (7%) to enter the parliament.

On his part, Dr. Said el-Haj, a researcher specializing in Turkish affairs, considered in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “Muharrem Inge’s withdrawal was a result of pressure and blackmail exerted on him, rather than a political deal with Kilicdaroglu, or with any other party.”

“Theoretically, it is assumed that Ince’s withdrawal will enhance Kilicdaroglu’s fortunes, given the similarity between the two ideologically and politically, and the great similarity between their supporters. But it is very likely that the reaction will be completely opposite and in Erdogan’s interest,” he added.

“Contrary to expectations, most of the votes of Ince’s supporters may not go to Kilicdaroglu, but to Sinan Ogan, while some may boycott the elections, and others for Erdogan,”

Dr. El-Haj also saw that Ince’s withdrawal from the presidential race raises the possibility that the presidential elections will be decided in the first round relatively, but it is likely that the decision will be postponed to a second round in all cases.