Thorny and Complex Issues: What Are Turkiye's Conditions for President Erdogan's Visit to Iraq?

With the Shiite framework now managing power in Iraq, there has been talk of an upcoming visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad, especially after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani held talks with Erdogan in the Turkish capital, Ankara, on March 21, 2023.

The discussions between al-Sudani, who assumed power in October 2022, and Erdogan focused on cooperation between Baghdad and Ankara in counterterrorism efforts, addressing the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) activities, Iraq's reconstruction, and enhancing collaboration in the fields of water, trade, and energy.

However, Erdogan's visit to Baghdad, despite being discussed in Iraqi media, has not been achieved yet, raising several questions about its fate, especially given its significant importance to Baghdad.

 

Washington's Intervention

Regarding the reasons for the delayed anticipated visit, The Cradle published a report on September 7, 2023, revealing several factors behind the postponement, initially scheduled for August 2023, and indicating the existence of disputes between Baghdad and Ankara, prompting Washington's involvement in resolving them.

The newspaper stated that sources within Ankara confirmed that Erdogan had "decided" to postpone his visit to Baghdad due to a request made by the Iraqi government to Washington, asking it to intervene and compel the Turkish government to comply with the International Court of Justice's ruling to pay Iraq a fine of $1.5 billion.

On March 25, 2023, Turkiye suspended exports from northern Iraq, totaling 450,000 barrels per day, following a ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris, which ordered Ankara to pay $1.5 billion in compensation to Baghdad for unauthorized exports by the Kurdistan Regional Government between 2014 and 2018.

The newspaper pointed out that despite ongoing discussions, it is clear that Erdogan will not visit Baghdad until he obtains a written agreement, ensuring that Iraq relinquishes the compensation and halts other legal proceedings previously filed by Baghdad against Ankara.

Reports claiming the postponement of President Erdogan's visit to October 2023 are inaccurate. The Cradle quoted an anonymous Iraqi government official who stated that the Turkish authorities have not officially communicated a specific date for the visit to Baghdad.

The newspaper noted that the visit is expected to take place after resolving several thorny issues, including cooperation in the energy sector and the dilemma of oil exports from the Kurdistan region.

The Iraqi official emphasized that negotiations aimed at resolving these issues before Erdogan's visit may take months, stressing that they may occur at any time if the Turkish government decides to implement them without the need for comprehensive agreements on these contentious matters.

The Middle East Eye published a report on September 8, 2023, revealing that Turkiye has filed a lawsuit against Iraq in an American court, demanding that Baghdad pay $950 million in compensation.

It stated that Turkiye does not reject paying any amount to Iraq but insists that the latter pays it a sum of $956 million, and the amount that Baghdad has to pay Turkiye will be greater than what Turkiye is supposed to pay to Iraq.

According to the report, Turkiye wants to calculate the interest rate set by the International Arbitration Court in Paris for the compensation that both countries must pay each other.

Iraq will receive $2.6 billion after calculating the interest, while Turkiye is expected to receive $3.5 billion, without providing further details

 

Other Conditions

After Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to Iraq on August 22, 2023, an official from the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Fidan's visit did not result in final agreements between Baghdad and Ankara regarding files described as complex and challenging.

In a report dated August 25, 2023, Baghdad Today quoted the Iraqi official (whose identity was not revealed) as saying that Turkish President Erdogan's expected visit to Iraq in September 2023 is linked to Iraq's response to what Fidan presented.

The official explained that Turkiye demands that Iraq classify the Kurdistan Workers' Party as a terrorist organization and work to prevent the use of Iraqi territory for armed attacks inside Turkish territory.

He also mentioned that Fidan provided documents and aerial images to Iraqi officials showing how PKK militants move from inside Iraq to Turkiye and carry out attacks, as well as their armed activities in areas like Qandil, Makhmour, Sidakan, and the Sulaymaniyah Governorate in the Kurdistan Region.

The official further stated that Fidan, who met with senior Iraqi officials in Baghdad and Erbil, affirmed that PKK militants enjoy sponsorship from Kurdish political parties, referring to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led by Bafel Talabani.

Fidan also addressed the oil issue, noting that Turkiye does not consider itself a party concerned with the oil dispute between Baghdad and Erbil, which led to the filing of a lawsuit in Paris by the Iraqi government, considering that the oil of the Kurdistan Region is exported through Turkish territories to the Jihan export terminal.

At this point, the Iraqi Foreign Minister requested that his country not bear any financial consequences in this file in exchange for agreeing to resume oil exports, indicating that Turkiye has shown flexibility regarding assisting Iraq in overcoming the water scarcity crisis by increasing water flow through the Tigris River.

The Iraqi official stated that Turkiye is waiting for an Iraqi response to the requests presented during the coming period, particularly regarding the PKK file and the resumption of oil exports, in order to proceed with Erdogan's visit, which is expected to witness the signing of final agreements on these matters.

As of September 12, 2023, Baghdad has not issued a clear stance on the PKK file, except for a statement by the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs following a meeting between Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein and his Turkish counterpart. The statement emphasized that the Iraqi constitution does not allow any organization to use Iraq as a launching pad for attacks on neighboring countries.

The presence of Kurdistan Workers' Party elements, which Turkiye classifies as a "terrorist organization," in Iraqi territories has led to several political crises between the two countries, most recently in 2022 when Baghdad accused Turkish forces of shelling a tourist resort in Duhok, resulting in the deaths of several civilians, a claim denied by Ankara.

The difficulty in reaching comprehensive agreements between the Baghdad government and its Turkish counterpart regarding ending the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party in Iraq stems from several factors, including its presence in rugged areas that make it difficult for Iraqi forces to reach. This is within the Iraqi–Iranian–Turkish triangle under the administration of the Kurdistan Region.

In addition, the Kurdistan Workers' Party receives support from pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, especially in the Sinjar area west of Nineveh, which is considered a strategic region and an important corridor for Iran to Syria, according to Iraqi observers.

The significance of Erdogan's visit to Iraq lies in the issues that Baghdad hopes to resolve with Ankara, especially the water crisis and the declining levels of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, and the resumption of Iraqi oil pumping through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

In light of the visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister to Baghdad, Iraqi Minister of Water Resources, Awn Dhiab Abdullah, announced on August 24, 2023, an increase in the water releases from the Tigris River, indicating that Iraq is close to overcoming the water crisis.