How Washington is Dealing with the Crisis of Electing a New President for Lebanon

The United States continues to urge the political class in Lebanon to accomplish the important task of electing a new president in order to expedite a resolution to the deepening economic crisis exacerbated by the open presidential vacancy.

Lebanon's political forces are divided over who will enter the Presidential Palace in Beirut. Some are posing obstacles to the election, while Washington seeks to soften positions regarding this challenging task.

Since the end of the term of former President Michel Aoun in late October 2022, the Parliament has failed 12 times to elect a president amidst a growing political divide between Hezbollah, supported by Iran with money and weapons, and its opponents.

Hezbollah seeks a leader for the state who is reassuring to the resistance, while its opponents want a president who is sovereign, reformist, and rescuing.

Consequently, no political group has a majority to singularly advance its candidate to the position, leading to a situation where names are put forward for the presidency and then burnt based on each party's weight in the voting within the Parliament.

 

Targeting the Obstructionists

In a message directed to President Joe Biden on August 3, 2023, Senator Jim Risch, the senior Republican member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stated that the events in the recent sessions for electing a Lebanese president have proven that Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri is merely an extension of Hezbollah.

The Senator specifically criticized Lebanon's failure to elect a president and accused Hezbollah of stockpiling weapons, as reported by Al-Monitor.

Risch accused Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri of deliberately delaying the selection of a new president, welcoming recent European calls for imposing sanctions on him and other Lebanese politicians.

The current U.S. policy toward Lebanon is seen as "life support," with Risch noting that it has failed to achieve results as the Lebanese government has not implemented reforms yet.

Risch urged the U.S. administration to support Lebanese politicians capable of persevering and facing Iran's allies in the country with greater strength.

In his message, the Senator stated, "We must take a more assertive role in shaping Lebanon's trajectory or risk losing Lebanon entirely as an Iranian client state."

Representatives Darrell Issa (California Republican), Darin LaHood (Illinois Republican), and Max Miller (Ohio Republican) wrote a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on August 3, 2023, expressing their concerns about the administration's policy in Lebanon.

Issa, LaHood, and Miller also expressed their regret over Lebanon's failure to elect a president and called for targeted sanctions, including freezing any dollar-denominated assets, against those who have demonstrated a pattern of obstructing the presidential election process, including Nabih Berri and others.

Edward M. Gabriel, chairman of the U.S. Lebanon Task Force and former U.S. ambassador, praised Risch's message.

Gabriel told Al-Monitor that Lebanon's political leaders continue to prioritize their personal interests over those of the country. The United States must consider all available measures against those obstructing progress to serve the Lebanese people.

 

The Game of Names

The Shia duo of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement led by Nabih Berri are insistent on nominating Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada Movement, for the Lebanese presidency, a move opposed by some Christian forces.

Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, stated in November 2023 that he wants any chosen president not to be "submissive" to the United States and "does not betray the resistance." However, his deputies cast blank votes during the election sessions.

In this context, Hanin Ghaddar, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that U.S. sanctions typically target Hezbollah and lesser-known individuals. Calls to penalize Berri himself are new, she said.

"Going after the smaller fish is a way of threatening Berri to comply. It seems today things are really getting out of hand, and Berri is not cooperating," Ghaddar told Al-Monitor.

Ghaddar still did not expect either the U.S. or the EU to actually sanction Berri. "I still think it's a threat rather than a serious attempt," she said, "but this is a message to Berri saying that 'if you continue to follow Hezbollah's agenda, you will be sanctioned."

In Lebanon, there are those who point fingers at the Speaker of Parliament for the responsibility of obstructing the presidential election due to his failure to initiate consecutive election sessions.

On the other hand, the Chief of the Lebanese Army, General Joseph Aoun, is one of the strongly suggested names for the presidency of Lebanon. He possesses an extensive political network in the United States, which managed to move him from the barracks to the presidential palace.

The consensus among U.S. policymakers is that Joseph Aoun is Washington's main ally in the endeavor to avoid serious political repercussions.

The United States is the primary source of assistance provided to the Lebanese Army, which it considers the most effective means to confront Hezbollah, a long-term political priority.

Currently, it is said that Aoun maintains a friendly relationship with senior U.S. officials such as General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Brett McGurk, National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa during President Biden's term.

Joseph Aoun, who established his first relationships in Washington more than 30 years ago when he attended a training program at the Pentagon, has consistently been the preferred choice for the United States to replace President Michel Aoun after the end of his presidential term.

A campaign was organized to bring him to power, supported by France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt. However, at the moment, his nomination is stalled due to the opposition of Hezbollah, which believes that Joseph Aoun is very close to the United States.

General Aoun faced another significant hurdle that required a constitutional amendment, as military officials are prohibited from running for the presidency unless they retire at least six months before the elections.

Aoun's term as Commander of the Lebanese Army ends in January 2024, but the deadlines can be extended for exceptional reasons, as was the case in 2008.

At that time, the Commander of the Army, General Michel Suleiman, was elected president without a constitutional amendment. Instead, it was achieved through an interpretation by a constitutional expert and approved by Berri, exploiting a constitutional clause regarding the expiration of deadlines during presidential vacancies.

 

Warning of 'the Five'

While Washington avoids naming a specific candidate for the Lebanese presidency, French President Emmanuel Macron and some other friendly heads of state to the United States have sought to negotiate an agreement to support Suleiman Frangieh to the finish line.

However, Washington was not satisfied with this prospect, as Frangieh is a childhood friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and an official adversary of the United States. He is also a close associate of Hezbollah.

Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States, France, and Qatar met in Doha, Qatar, on July 17, 2023, to discuss the urgent need to quickly elect new Lebanese leaders and implement the required economic reforms.

At that time, representatives considered practical options regarding the implementation of measures against those obstructing any progress toward electing a president in Lebanon.

The joint statement issued after the Doha meeting stated that "the Lebanese parliament must elect a president capable of embodying Lebanon's integrity, uniting the Lebanese people, prioritizing the country's interests, and making the welfare of the people a priority."

This includes forming a broad coalition that benefits the largest possible number, aiming to implement essential economic reforms, especially the reforms recommended by the International Monetary Fund, to achieve the aspirations of the Lebanese people and address their urgent needs.

The statement further noted that "the five countries are preparing to work with Lebanon to support the implementation of these necessary reform measures to achieve prosperity, stability, and security in the country."

 

A Fresh Attempt

The spokesperson of the U.S. State Department, Matthew Miller, previously stated that the United States urges political leaders in Lebanon to urgently move toward electing a president to unify the country and swiftly implement the required reforms to save the economy.

Miller added in a statement dated May 2, 2023, that Lebanese leaders must not prioritize their personal interests and ambitions over the interests of their country and people.

He expressed the belief of the United States that Lebanon needs a president free from corruption and capable of unifying the country and implementing fundamental economic reforms, particularly those required to secure an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

At that time, political circles noted that the mentioned statement retains the language of ambiguity concerning the U.S. stance, as Washington lacks sufficient pressure tools to shift the balance, facing Hezbollah's dominance and influence on the Lebanese scene.

Lebanon's file still holds a low priority in Washington's agenda, as confirmed by some of the Lebanese delegations that recently visited Washington.

However, despite this, U.S. officials have conducted several rounds of communication with the Lebanese regarding completing the presidential elections.

Washington openly states that it wants the presidential election to proceed and does not impose a specific presidential candidate, especially considering that the Biden administration linked aid to Lebanon to reforms, and these can only be achieved through the election of a new president and subsequently forming a fully empowered new government.

According to observers, Washington's support for a certain figure to assume the presidency aligns with influential French and Saudi initiatives in the Lebanese political landscape aimed at resolving the elections' impasse.

Some believe that the United States has renewed France's authorization to continue its efforts to solve the Lebanese crisis, as indicated by Macron's appointment of former French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as a special envoy to Lebanon on May 8, 2023, in a renewed attempt to end the political crisis in the Arab country.

Le Drian met with political factions in Beirut for the second time on July 27, 2023, and proposed that all active parties in the presidential election process be invited in September 2023 to hold a meeting in Lebanon with the aim of reaching a consensus on priority issues and projects that the future president should undertake.

With this, Le Drian presents a new vision for a solution, based on reaching an agreement on the president's agenda before his election, amidst the sharp political divisions among Lebanese parties.

The French Foreign Ministry clarified that Le Drian's proposal enjoys the support of Lebanon's partner friends who met in Doha, and it encountered openness from Lebanese parties.

 

American Interests

With the deadlock in electing a president in Lebanon, the United States is seen as both the largest and hidden player in the election process, given Washington's long-term interests in the country.

This is evident in Washington's obstruction of the International Monetary Fund from providing more assistance to Lebanon in the absence of governance reforms and anti-corruption measures.

Beirut was not given a $3 billion rescue plan from the Fund in 2022 due to the lack of reform.

The United States has continued to play a central role in Lebanese political affairs since 1958, when then-President Dwight Eisenhower sent a Marine force to keep the Western-backed leader Camille Chamoun in power.

Later, Washington began providing significant support to the Lebanese Army in the hope of building a locally loyal fighting force.

In 2005, Washington intensified its efforts to support the Lebanese Army when Syrian forces withdrew from Lebanon after 29 years of presence.

Since then, the United States has sent around $2.5 billion in military aid to Lebanon.

This includes regular payments to support the officers and soldiers of the Lebanese Armed Forces over the past four years, as their salaries have decreased during the early stages of the country's economic collapse.

Moreover, the ongoing construction of a massive new U.S. embassy compound in Beirut will allow Washington to expand its presence locally and in the broader regional context.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has closely cooperated with its Lebanese counterpart for years, and the scope of intelligence information exchange has widened as a condition for the United States to continue paying military salaries.

Conversely, the Lebanese military intelligence office B2 requested that its American counterpart, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), be granted access to its files, as reported by Intelligence Online on May 29, 2023.