Silent Rift Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE Within OPEC: What It Could Mean for the Organization’s Future

While OPEC and its extended alliance, OPEC+, continue to grapple with stabilizing their footing amid the turbulence of global oil markets, a silent strain is deepening between two long-time partners often seen as the backbone of the producers’ coalition: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

For years, technical and commercial disagreements have simmered behind closed doors. 

But tensions have taken a sharper turn, fueled by disputes over production quotas, diverging visions on output ceilings, oil pricing, and the long-term direction of the market in the decade ahead.

Despite efforts by both sides to wrap the crisis in the veneer of Gulf consensus, the numbers—and the policies—tell a different story: one of a deeper power struggle that goes far beyond a disagreement over a few hundred thousand barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia, the dominant force within OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), is intent on curbing oil supply to bolster prices—an approach closely tied to its sweeping development ambitions and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's much-publicized Vision 2030.

The UAE, meanwhile, is pressing ahead with efforts to expand its production share, in line with its massive investments in boosting oil capacity. Its drive signals a desire to reshape the rules of the game within the organization—even if that means openly flirting with the idea of a full withdrawal from OPEC.

Lurking behind the oil diplomacy is a far more complex set of calculations—divergent domestic economic forecasts, entangled geopolitical bets, and a quiet contest over shaping the balance of power in the Gulf, all unfolding against the backdrop of a looming post-oil era.

How long can this silent tension persist before it erupts into open confrontation? 

To what extent can Riyadh rein in Abu Dhabi’s growing ambitions without risking an internal rupture within OPEC? 

And more crucially, what might this evolving rivalry mean for the future of the organization—and for the global energy market at large?

A Simmering Dispute

The Economist recently observed that OPEC is navigating one of the most turbulent periods in its history, as tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi—though rarely acknowledged publicly—grow increasingly difficult to ignore.

In early June 2025, the magazine posed a pointed question: could the UAE break OPEC? The query, rooted in escalating disagreements over production quotas and diverging oil strategies, underscores a deeper concern—the potential unraveling of the world’s most influential oil cartel at a time of profound shifts in the global energy landscape.

The magazine noted that on May 31, OPEC+—which brings together OPEC members and allied major producers—announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, starting in July 2025.

It marks the third consecutive monthly rise within three months, collectively amounting to roughly 1.2% of global oil demand—a signal of shifting priorities within the alliance amid mounting internal pressures.

Yet despite the flurry of production hikes, the increases have so far fallen short of reining in the volatility of oil prices.

While the broader narrative suggests that OPEC still holds firm control over the market, the reality is far more complex. 

The organization now finds itself grappling with a deepening crisis—one that could pave the way for far-reaching shifts in its future and its role in the global energy order.

Over its 65-year history, OPEC has weathered numerous major crises—from the Gulf wars and the U.S. shale boom to the historic collapse in oil prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the current rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia stands apart, both in its nature and timing. 

It comes at a moment of growing unease among member states, as genuine fears mount that global oil demand could near its peak within the next decade—driven by the accelerating shift toward clean energy alternatives.

The Rebellious Ally

Against this backdrop, several OPEC member states have begun racing to sell as much of their oil reserves as possible within a shrinking window of opportunity.

In doing so, some have quietly breached the cartel’s strict production limits, seeking to fund ambitious economic diversification projects and reduce their dependence on oil as a primary revenue source.

According to The Economist, within this increasingly fraught equation, the UAE has emerged as the most defiant player in the group—despite still receiving preferential treatment from Riyadh, at least for now.

The UAE, OPEC’s third-largest oil exporter, has positioned itself as one of the most assertive players seeking a permanent increase in its production quota—pushing well beyond the cartel’s traditional limits.

While OPEC’s official line maintains that a stronger supply is justified by “robust market fundamentals,” such reasoning has come under growing scrutiny from analysts. 

Many point to weakening demand forecasts, driven by an ongoing trade war and an abundant supply of oil from producers outside the bloc.

Explanations for the recent production increases vary. Some observers interpret them as an attempt to placate the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump by easing domestic fuel prices.

Others view them as a strategy to reclaim lost market share—or even as a Saudi-led tool to penalize non-compliant producers, chief among them the UAE, for breaching agreed production quotas.

Battles over the Figures

At the heart of the dispute lies the murky issue of conflicting figures surrounding the UAE’s actual production levels.

While Abu Dhabi insists it remains within its cap of 2.9 million barrels per day, oil shipment tracking data suggests its crude exports alone are nearing 2.8 million—without accounting for refined output or domestic stockpiles.

Unofficial estimates go even further. Analysts and consultants working with international advisory firms believe the UAE’s true output may be closer to 3.3 to 3.4 million barrels per day, raising further questions about compliance and transparency within the bloc.

The UAE has not published official production data for years, complicating independent verification of the figures submitted to OPEC.

Despite being aware of these breaches, Saudi Arabia has maintained a stance of restraint, avoiding public escalation with Abu Dhabi. 

Riyadh fears that a direct confrontation could prompt the UAE to withdraw from OPEC altogether—a scenario that would deliver a crippling blow to the cartel at a particularly delicate moment.

Observers interpret Saudi Arabia’s restraint as stemming from the delicate nature of its relationship with the UAE.

The latter has long maintained dormant production capacity that exceeds its official quota, fostering a growing sense of grievance and a determination to secure a permanent increase in its share of the cartel’s output.

The Heart of the Dispute

At the heart of the dispute between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi lies a fundamental divergence in their financial needs.

Saudi Arabia requires an oil price of no less than $90 per barrel to fund the ambitious mega-projects underpinning Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030.

By contrast, the UAE’s budget breakeven sits at around $50 per barrel, giving it significantly greater flexibility to tolerate lower prices in exchange for expanding its market share.

Abu Dhabi is already pressing ahead with an ambitious expansion plan to boost its production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, backed by investments totaling $62 billion.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) asserts that it is on track to meet this target ahead of schedule, even as its OPEC quota remains confined to a modest, gradual increase of just 300,000 barrels over 18 months.

A comprehensive review of production quotas has been postponed until 2027—a move the UAE implicitly rejects, viewing it as a freeze on its production ambitions in favor of allowing Saudi Arabia to maintain a comfortable output ceiling aligned with its economic needs.

A Ticking Time Bomb

The current crisis is neither the most severe nor the first between the neighboring Gulf allies.

On July 6, 2023, the Washington-based Arab Center published a report describing a slow-burning explosion within OPEC, as tensions simmer beneath the surface between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

The report warned of mounting fears that the dispute could one day erupt into open conflict—threatening to fracture OPEC’s unity and redraw the balance of power across the entire global oil market.

While the outcome of the current crisis remains difficult to predict, prevailing indicators suggest that the Saudi-Emirati rift is no longer merely a technical disagreement over production quotas.

Instead, it has evolved into a deeper economic and strategic rivalry between two divergent visions for managing Gulf oil wealth.

The roots of the Saudi-UAE dispute within OPEC began to take shape in November 2016, with the formation of the “OPEC+” alliance between member states and Russia.

Although Abu Dhabi initially agreed to the production cut deal, it quickly sensed that its allotted quotas failed to reflect its rapidly growing ambitions to expand oil capacity—planting the first seeds of unspoken reservations.

Key Points of Disagreement

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 deepened the rift, triggering a price war between Riyadh and Moscow that sent oil prices plunging to unprecedented lows.

While Saudi Arabia swiftly moved to lead steep production cuts to stabilize the market, the UAE viewed these reductions as an unfair burden, imposed despite its expanding production capacity.

The first public eruption of the dispute was not long in coming. In July 2021, Abu Dhabi refused to extend the production cut agreement on Saudi terms, demanding an increase in its quota before agreeing to any further extension.

The stance threatened to unravel the entire OPEC+ deal, before a settlement was reached granting the UAE a temporary boost of 500,000 barrels per day.

Throughout 2022, tensions simmered beneath the surface as new disputes emerged over the pace of reintroducing oil to the market amid recovering prices. 

The UAE continued to push for a rise in its official quota to match its expanding capacity.

By May 2023, Western reports began to highlight escalating friction within OPEC+ meetings, with Saudi Arabia insisting on voluntary production cuts to support prices, while the UAE remained steadfast in expanding output—even beyond its declared limits.

In February 2024, the dispute edged perilously close to a fresh explosion as Abu Dhabi continued to exceed its official production ceiling, according to shipment tracking data. This only deepened Saudi frustration, even as public statements remained measured.

By May 2025, the conflict had entered its most complex phase, with the UAE leveraging the modest production increases approved by OPEC+.

Riyadh’s fears grew that Abu Dhabi might wield the threat of exiting OPEC as a bargaining chip—a ticking time bomb at the heart of the cartel, with an uncertain outcome.