Bangladesh Uprising: Examining India's Setbacks from Hasina's Regime Fall

India, with its Hindu-majority population, strongly supported Bangladesh during its separation from Pakistan and the establishment of a secular government led by the family of its founder, Mujibur Rahman, and his daughter, Sheikh Hasina. New Delhi reaped political, strategic, economic, and security benefits from this alliance.

The collapse of Hasina's regime through a popular uprising and her flight to India on August 5, 2024, signaled a decline in New Delhi's influence in Bangladesh, particularly with the resurgence of political forces hostile to India, such as the Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami.

In response, India launched a campaign to thwart the revolution and reinstate Sheikh Hasina by supporting her secular party, the Awami League, while spreading false claims about the persecution and killing of Hindus by Muslims in Bangladesh.

Indian analysts warn that India is on the verge of losing Bangladesh, as the uprising is not only against the Hasina regime but also against its main ally, the Hindu nationalist government in New Delhi.

They fear this could lead to closer ties between Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China at India’s expense, potentially shifting the balance of power in this strategically important Asian region.

How Was India Affected?

On August 15, Indian and Bangladeshi newspapers, along with Agence France-Presse (AFP), reported on the potential political, economic, and security-related damage India could face.

They stated that India “over-invested in Hasina and under-invested in Bangladesh.”

It is therefore natural for India to panic after tying its interests to a hated dictatorship and a single secular party, rather than aligning with the people.

Experts told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had long ignored democratic decline and human rights violations in their countries in favor of close relations.

New Delhi's political setbacks include the strengthening of relations between Bangladesh and both Pakistan and China, to India's detriment. Historically, India has supported Bangladesh's repressive regime, despite its claims of upholding democratic values.

The Indian Express wrote that “New Delhi must actively work to limit the damage, and ensure the high stakes in the relationship are protected,” noting that “this could involve some near-term setbacks.”

Salimullah Khan, an academic at the University of Liberal Arts, stated that Bangladesh’s problem lies with India, which has consistently supported repressive regimes.

He added in an August 8, 2024 article in The Daily Star that “India's best interest may perhaps lie in strengthening a new democracy in Bangladesh. At any rate, not obstructing democratic aspirations of a new generation in its eastward neighborhood is the key point.”

There is fierce competition between India and China, the two most populous countries in the world, for strategic influence across South Asia, including Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.

India’s economic losses include the suspension of dozens of projects agreed upon with Hasina’s government and the withdrawal of Indian companies from Bangladesh.

The most significant political and security loss is that Bangladesh has ceased pursuing Islamic groups within its borders.

Further, Bangladesh has stopped targeting Indian Islamic groups that operate across the border to gain independence from India, such as in Kashmir.

The ousting of Sheikh Hasina has caused concern in India, which supported her to counter Chinese influence and prevent the rise of Islamic alternatives, analysts say.

Syed Munir Khasru, head of the Institute of Policy Studies and Advocacy (IPSA) in India, explained in an article in The Hindu on August 18, 2024, that with Hasina’s exit and the collapse of her regime, the time of reckoning has come for New Delhi.

He stated that New Delhi’s policy “of turning a blind eye to Ms. Hasina’s exercise of hard power,” made the people of Bangladesh “view India’s relations as being aligned with one particular party [Awami League] and one person as opposed to the people of Bangladesh,” leading to widespread resentment.

Khasru stressed that “this presents a challenge for India’s diplomacy and the need for having a more nuanced understanding of Bangladesh’s socio-political landscape.”

This is especially true as Hindu newspapers and politicians have offered misleading interpretations of the student uprising, claiming it was driven by “external forces,” particularly Pakistan, India’s traditional rival.

For India, the lesson is the importance of engaging with the people of Bangladesh, not just one ruler or party.

The head of IPSA noted that relations have further deteriorated due to the falsehoods spread by Indian newspapers and politicians from the ruling party about the persecution of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, which multiple sources, including the BBC, have debunked.

On the contrary, Muslims have been protecting Hindu temples and churches in Bangladesh, while they themselves face persecution in India.

The same point was emphasized by Humayun Kabir, a Bangladeshi political analyst holding British citizenship, who stated that India focused solely on cooperating with Hasina and her Awami League party while neglecting the grievances of the people, leading to its current losses.

Kabir, the CEO of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI), told Press Trust of India (PTI) that India would benefit if it “positively supports” the current transition in Bangladesh along with moving to build relationships with other political parties, instead of “focusing on one person and party” taking into account the “uniqueness” of the change, as quoted by The Hindu on August 18, 2024.

The Next Phase

However, doubts remain about India changing its policy, as it continues to host Sheikh Hasina, who still hopes to return to power.

Since her arrival at a military airbase near New Delhi, she has been kept in a secret safe house and has not spoken publicly.

However, her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, announced that she plans to return and participate in the upcoming elections, provoking public outrage against India’s attempts to bring her back.

“For the time being, she is in India. She will go back to Bangladesh the moment the interim government decides to hold an election in the country. I am thankful to PM Narendra Modi for saving my mother’s life at such short notice,” Joy told the Daily Times of India, adding that Hasina’s party Awami League will take part in the election and “might even win.”

When asked whether Bangladesh might request Hasina’s extradition to face murder charges, Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that it is not their policy to respond to hypothetical questions at this time.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to rebuild cooperation between the two countries by offering his “best wishes” to Bangladesh’s interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus.

However, he also tried to pressure him by raising claims of Muslim persecution of Bengali Hindus following the uprising.

Yunus assured him that the interim government would prioritize the protection, safety, and security of Hindus and all minorities in Bangladesh.

Retired Major General Muniruzzaman, head of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), believes India should rebuild its approach based on mutual trust and avoid aligning itself with just one party in Bangladesh, as it has done in the past.

It noted “significant concerns in India” if former Prime Minister and opposition leader Khaleda Zia or the Jamaat-e-Islami party came to power.

The report questioned whether the new regime would continue Sheikh Hasina’s policy of maintaining relations and cooperation with India on broader strategic and security fronts.

The answer according to the report was that history has already shown that the leaders and party poised to take power in Bangladesh have “a tarnished record,” marked by their support for “anti-India elements,” and one of these leaders may return to the political mainstream (referring to Khaleda Zia).

Security and defense cooperation between Dhaka and New Delhi have increased, particularly in India’s northeastern states, where Islamic resistance movements operate along the Bangladesh border.

Bilateral trade has also grown, with major deals struck by Indian companies, such as the coal deal between Hasina’s government and the Adani Group, led by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, whose rise is closely tied to Modi’s.

A few weeks before her escape, Hasina was asked to comment on social media posts accusing her of “selling Bangladesh” to New Delhi during her official visit to India from June 21 to 22, 2024.

The Bangladeshi Prime Minister dismissed this claim, sharply stating, “Sheikh Hasina does not sell out the country. We have made this country independent, and that should be remembered.”

Despite growing anger in Bangladesh over Modi’s anti-Muslim stance, Hasina maintained a close working relationship with the extremist Hindu government in New Delhi.

Even as anti-Muslim and anti-Bangladeshi migrant rhetoric from the Bharatiya Janata Party escalated ahead of India’s 2019 and 2024 elections, the “Iron Lady” of Bangladesh remained silent, insisting that it was an “internal matter” for India, further fueling public anger against her.

Signs of Tension

When Hasina was ousted from power, India repeated its mistakes by accusing the revolutionaries of being driven and funded by Pakistani intelligence. It began raising alarms about the safety of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, even though these claims were proven false.

Social media, Indian newspapers, and television channels widely circulated false reports of attacks on Hindu temples and businesses, angering Bengalis who denied these accusations.

Reports published by Indian committees and the extremist Bharatiya Janata Party, claiming that Hindu temples were targeted and that the events were a “Pakistan-backed coup to eliminate India’s influence,” were found to be baseless, according to Bangladeshi newspapers.

The spokesperson for India’s Bharatiya Janata Party, Shweta Shalini, alleged that Hindus in Bangladesh, who make up 7 percent of the population, were facing a “clear external threat.”

Hindu mobs in India attacked Muslim communities and set fire to their homes in retaliation for the success of the revolution in Bangladesh and the fall of dictator Hasina. These acts were incited by misleading information regarding attacks on Bangladeshi Hindus, aimed at suppressing the revolution.

However, Gobinda Pramanik, the General Secretary of Bangladesh Jatiyo Hindu Mohajote (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), denied India's false claims about Muslims or opposition supporters (the Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami) attacking Hindu temples.

He confirmed that “leaders of the Bangladesh Jatiyo Hindu Mohajote and Jamaat-e-Islami instructed their officials to ensure that Hindu homes were not targeted and to protect the temples, and no such attacks occurred.”

The Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council in Bangladesh claimed that there had been at least 200 attacks against Hindus and other religious minorities in the country.

However, the revolutionaries stated that these attacks were not sectarian but targeted those who had cooperated with dictator Hasina’s regime.

On August 14, 2024, The Economist highlighted the role of "student thugs" from the Bangladesh Chhatra League, affiliated with the ruling Awami League party, in violently suppressing protests, which later led to acts of revenge by the demonstrators.

Shafqat Munir, a senior fellow at the Dhaka-based Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, said the claims about targeting Hindus were misleading. 

He explained that this is a revolution involving all Bangladeshis, regardless of their beliefs. No specific group or individual was targeted because of their beliefs, but rather for their role in the repression and killing of the revolutionaries, according to France24.

“This revolution, which I term the Monsoon Revolution, is a revolution for all Bangladeshis, irrespective of whatever faiths they profess. So, it is absolutely critical for us to ensure that no particular group or no particular individual is targeted for his or her faith. That's very important,” as quoted by France24.

Upon his return and assuming office, Muhammad Yunus made sure to meet with members of the Hindu community at the Dhakeshwari National Temple, the largest Hindu shrine in the country, to affirm the commitment to ensuring equality and protection for all Bangladeshi citizens.