Bangladesh's Dictator: Why Did She Chose India as Her Destination?

Scenes reminiscent of the Arab Spring uprisings emerged over a decade later, this time in Bangladesh on August 5, 2024.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed, who had ruled for 20 consecutive years, fled to India in a military plane after a month of popular revolt against her.

The protests demanding Sheikh Hasina's resignation were met with violent repression by security forces, resulting in dozens of deaths.

The demonstrations began after the Supreme Court reinstated a quota system in June that allocates 56% of government jobs to specific demographic groups, including families of war veterans.

The images of revolutionaries storming government and parliamentary buildings, taking over Sheikh Hasina’s bedroom, and dining in her presidential kitchen echoed similar scenes from previous events like the Sri Lankan uprising in June 2022.

However, Hasina’s specific choice to seek refuge in India, along with protesters deliberately destroying statues of her father, Bangladesh’s founder Mujib Rahman, with axes, highlighted deeper issues of her alleged collusion with Hindus and the killing of Jamaat-e-Islami scholars.

Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman’s appeal for calm and trust from the protesters led activists and analysts to warn of potential deceit by the military.

A previous report by Al-Estiklal had predicted that the “student revolution” could end 20 years of oppression under Bangladesh’s dictator, Sheikh Hasina Wazed.

Why India?

After fleeing amidst protests, Sheikh Hasina Wazed landed at a military airport near Delhi, as reported by the Indian news agency ANI.

Commercial tracking services revealed that a Bangladeshi Air Force plane headed west near Delhi on August 5, 2024, according to Reuters.

The ASEAN News Agency cited Indian sources stating that Hasina arrived at Hindon Air Base in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, aboard a C-130 military transport plane.

The Hindustan Times reported on August 5, 2024, that the Indian Air Force and other security agencies were providing her with protection and transporting her to a secure location.

A source close to Hasina explained to AFP on August 5 that she had left her palace for a more secure location.

New Delhi has been her major ally since her first election in 1996, with Hasina affirming that India supported Bangladesh during its independence war in 1971.

India also helped her father, Mujib Rahman, in separating from Pakistan, which weakened the Islamic unity of the two countries.

Thus, India welcomed her warmly. According to International Asian News Agency sources, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and senior military officers met Hasina at the airport and transported her to safety.

Hasina’s choice of India for her escape relates to her alliance with Indian Hindus against Bangladeshi scholars and Jamaat-e-Islami, which included the execution of five scholars.

A month before her escape to India, Sheikh Hasina made two visits to India in June 2024 within 15 days.

Her first visit was for one day to attend the inauguration of the right-wing Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A week later, she made an official two-day visit, during which she held talks with Modi and announced several agreements.

These visits underscored the close political ties between her administration and the Hindu nationalist government in India, which has implemented similar policies of suppressing Islamic movements.

Since assuming office, Bangladesh under Hasina has prioritized its relationship with India, working diligently to strengthen ties with the Indian Hindu government.

India was the first country to recognize Bangladesh as an independent state, establishing diplomatic relations immediately after its independence in December 1971 and assisting it in the war against Pakistan.

Suppression of Islamists

Since 2009, Sheikh Hasina has assisted New Delhi in suppressing armed Islamic groups fighting for independence in Kashmir and elsewhere.

She has also cracked down on these separatist groups seeking refuge in Bangladesh.

Hasina aimed to suppress Jamaat-e-Islami, executing five of its leaders and killing two others in prison due to their role in exposing India's crimes against Muslims and the ongoing animosity between the two nations.

In Hasina’s political view, India faces a problem, especially considering that Indian strategic thinking was shaped between 2001 and 2006, during the tenure of the pro-Islamic Bengali Nationalist Party, which supported Pakistan.

During the rule of the Bengali Nationalist Party, led by Khaleda Zia, armed Islamic movements flourished near the Indian northeastern border, supported by Bangladesh.

Consequently, India's strategy was to keep Hasina's party (the Awami League) in power and to avoid welcoming the Bengali Nationalist Party, which was anti-India.

India reportedly feels threatened if any party other than the Awami League, led by Hasina, were to govern Bangladesh, according to a study by the Eurasian Arab Studies Institute on July 9, 2024.

This suggests that India is concerned about recent developments and the revolution against Hasina, fearing a return to power by the Bengali Nationalist Party, which is the largest opposition party with significant chances in any upcoming elections.

Hasina’s father, Mujib Rahman, was the first to collaborate with India against fellow Muslims, leading the movement for the secession of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and founding the new state.

Rahman, along with his family, was assassinated about four years after assuming power, in a military coup that marked the beginning of nearly 16 years of military rule, before Hasina returned from exile and executed five senior military leaders for her father's murder.

Mujib Rahman had supported Muhammad Ali Jinnah in Pakistan's secession from India in 1947.

On June 23, 1949, he joined the Awami League, becoming Assistant Secretary, then General Secretary on July 9, 1953.

However, he led the secession of Bangladesh on December 16, 1971, and the Pakistani military council sentenced him to death, with India providing support.

On January 12, 1972, he took the oath as the first Prime Minister of Bangladesh, a country where Muslims make up 83% of the population, with 16% consisting of Hindus, Buddhists, and Christians, and he became the country's leader on January 15, 1974.

But on August 15, 1975, Mujib Rahman, at 55 years old, was assassinated in the presidential residence by military officers in a coup, as he had refused to step down, resulting in his death and that of his family. His daughters, Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, survived as they were in Europe at the time.

After returning from voluntary exile in 1981, Hasina led the Awami League to victory in the 1996 elections and served as Prime Minister until 2001.

In 1998, the Bangladeshi judiciary sentenced about ten officers to death, with five executed for the murder of her father.

After 45 years, former Bengali army lieutenant Abdul Majid was arrested and executed in 2009.

During her rule, Hasina in 2013 barred Jamaat-e-Islami from participating in elections, citing that its religious charter conflicted with Bangladesh’s secular constitution, allowing her to rule alone for several subsequent years despite allegations of election fraud.

The Hindustan Times reported on August 5, 2024, that Sheikh Hasina might seek political asylum in London, accompanied by her sister Rehana, who holds British citizenship.

According to an analysis by Muslim Matters magazine on July 17, 2024, Bangladesh has experienced relentless political repression to silence Islamic movements and leaders seeking change since the Arab Spring in 2011.

The magazine, which focuses on the Islamic world, particularly in Asia, noted that Sheikh Hasina, fearing revolutions in the Arab world, initiated a crackdown to prevent a revolution in her country.

The crackdown in Bangladesh primarily targeted Islamic groups, akin to the situation in Egypt, where any Islamic element was seen as a threat to Hasina's rule, especially given that Jamaat-e-Islami’s ideological foundation is similar to that of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Hassan al-Banna.

After Bangladesh gained independence in 1971, the government targeted Jamaat-e-Islami as a political rival, much like the Egyptian government’s approach to the Muslim Brotherhood.

The so-called International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh was established in 2010 under the pretext of prosecuting "war criminals" who opposed its independence in 1971, primarily targeting Jamaat-e-Islami leaders and other opponents.

Jamaat-e-Islami had sought to unite East and West Pakistan when calls for Bangladesh’s independence emerged from East Pakistan by Mujib Rahman, inciting Hindus against it.

During the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, Jamaat-e-Islami in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) opposed independence on the basis of Islamic unity and fears of violent conflict, warning against India’s full support for the secession.

Hasina Wazed began her political purges against Jamaat-e-Islami in 2013, accusing them of being war criminals who opposed Bangladesh’s independence, while the real aim was to eliminate the Islamic movement.

Among those arrested, executed, or who died in prison from Jamaat-e-Islami’s leadership were seven prominent scholars: five were hanged, and two died in prison before their execution.

Is the Military in Control?

Bangladeshi Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, in a televised address announcing Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and flight, did not explicitly state that he forced her out amidst escalating protests approaching the presidential palace. However, Indian media have confirmed this.

The multinational Indian news channel WION reported on August 5, 2024, that General Waker-uz-Zaman is responsible for Sheikh Hasina’s resignation.

It noted that the Bangladeshi army has played a crucial role in the country’s revenge-driven politics through bloody coups, dictatorial rule, and killings, and is behind the brutal crackdown on student protests.

Questions have arisen: Will Zaman remain in power for an extended period, or will he allow for a temporary government followed by organized and peaceful elections?

Indian news network CNN-News18 also cited intelligence sources claiming that Sheikh Hasina arrived in Agartala, northeastern India, after fleeing and that the army intervened to force her to leave the country and resign.

On August 5, 2024, it reported, based on prominent Indian intelligence sources, that there is a conspiracy by Pakistani intelligence to remove Sheikh Hasina, with Pakistan seeking to establish an anti-India government in Bangladesh.

Sources indicated that Pakistani intelligence believes the Awami League government is supported by India and must be removed, suggesting Pakistani pressure behind her removal from power.

These high-level intelligence sources told CNN-News18 that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is using students to create unrest in Bangladesh with the aim of establishing an anti-India government by ousting Sheikh Hasina.

They also claimed that ISI sleeper cells have been operating full-time in Dhaka to remove Hasina, noting that the Pakistani intelligence agency used the student opposition group Chhatra Shibir, closely linked to Pakistan, to exacerbate the crisis in Dhaka and provided it with secret funding.

More than a month after assuming the position of Army Chief in Bangladesh, General Waker-uz-Zaman came into the spotlight when he announced Hasina’s resignation and departure from the country, stating that a temporary government would be formed.

It remains unclear whether the military will play a role in this process. However, Zaman mentioned: “We will now go to President Mohammad Shahabuddin, where we will discuss the formation of the temporary government and the administration of the country.”

In his address, he asserted that he would “assume full responsibility” following Hasina’s resignation and departure and would coordinate the formation of a temporary government with the leaders of major political parties, excluding the Awami League, which Hasina led. This was seen as a natural step.

The general, who took over as Army Chief on June 23, 2024, described the country as undergoing a “revolutionary phase.”

His request to the revolutionaries to “trust the country’s army and return to their homes” raised concerns that military rule might be reinstated, recalling the previous 12-year military rule in the country.

Thus, there have been speculations and concerns that the end of the Mujibur Rahman family era could lead to a direct or indirect return of military rule.

One possibility includes the return of Hasina's rival, the military-supporting dictator Khaleda Zia, in upcoming elections, especially after President Mohammad Shahabuddin released her from the detention imposed by the ousted Prime Minister.

The military wields significant political influence in Bangladesh, which has experienced over 20 coups or coup attempts since its independence in 1971.

However, it remains unclear whether Sheikh Hasina’s resignation or the Army Chief’s temporary assumption of power will result in a continued role for the military in the country’s future.