After Losing, Will the Nation Alliance Endure Until the Local Elections?

The failure of the Turkish opposition alliance, the Nation Alliance (Millet Ittifaki), to win a majority in the parliamentary elections on May 14, 2023, and its defeat in the second round of the presidential vote on the 28th of the same month, has opened the door for discussions about the future of this alliance and its constituent parties.

On the one hand, this failure has led to internal discussions within the alliance itself, particularly among the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Good Party (IYI Parti), and the Felicity Party (SAADET).

These discussions within the parties may impact the future of the alliance itself and the internal balance of the parties.

 

Faded Away?

The prevailing belief is that the Nation Alliance has come to an end after the second round of the presidential elections on May 28, 2023.

Politicians within this alliance, as well as many supporting journalists and academics, believe that it has “ended.”

Former Republican People’s Party deputy Ali Ozgunduz stated to Al-Estiklal that the Nation Alliance has come to an end.

“In my opinion, if the alliance had been in power or had a majority in parliament, there would have been a commitment to working together on parliamentary and governmental matters. However, I think that after losing the elections, it no longer has any meaning.”

However, from another perspective, Bulent Kaya, one of the founders of the Nation Alliance and a deputy of the Felicity Party in Istanbul, prefers to consider the future of the alliance from a different point of view.

He divided the alliance parties into two parts: those working towards specific goals and their cooperation during election times.

In his interview with Al-Estiklal, Kaya said: “Partnerships and political goals between the parties are what will determine the possibility of the alliance’s continuity at this stage,” expecting it to fade away until the next elections.

On the other hand, Emin Sirin, a former deputy of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Istanbul, believes that “the existence of the Nation Alliance after its loss in the presidential and parliamentary elections serves no purpose.”

Sirin added that “the alliance is not in a position to fulfill any promises it made to the people, so it is not possible to talk about its continuity.”

Meanwhile, Sinan Baykent, former advisor to the deputy of the Justice and Development Party in Ankara, Tugrul Turkes, believes that “the Nation Alliance has disintegrated by the force of circumstances.”

“There is no tangible sign of the opposition’s success. I believe this alliance has ended, and it is very likely that conservative liberal parties within it will operate according to their own agendas.”

He added: “The Good Party is likely to make efforts to separate itself from the Republican People’s Party, while the latter will be in an internal struggle for a while.”

Similarly, journalist Mahmoud Maslahan, who closely monitors Turkish elections and domestic politics, is among those who believe that the “Coalition of the Nation has disintegrated.”

 

 

Uncertain Future

On the other hand, journalist Hasan Basri Akdemir believes that the future of the alliance will be determined by the leadership elections of the Republican People’s Party.

According to Akdemir, even if Kemal Kilicdaroglu continues to lead the Republican People’s Party, due to the unwillingness of the leader of the Good Party, Meral Aksener, to be part of it, the Future Party and the Democracy and Progress Party will withdraw from the alliance.

He believes that the Nation Alliance cannot continue on the same path it started with six parties.

Akdemir asserts that the Felicity Party and the Democratic Party deviated from their conservative principles by joining the Nation Alliance, making them uninterested in future participation.

Therefore, Akdemir confirms that the Nation Alliance will not continue, and many parties will not join it if it is re-established in the future.

In a television interview, the General Secretary of the Good Party, Ugur Poyraz, stated that the Nation Alliance has come to an end.

Prior to the parliamentary oath-taking, 38 deputies from the Felicity Party, Democracy and Progress Party, Future Party, and Democratic Party resigned from the parliamentary group of the Republican People’s Party, on which they were elected.

From another perspective regarding its future, the Nation Alliance may be re-established in the local elections scheduled for March 2024.

However, even those who claim that the Nation Alliance may reunite in the local elections say that “this is highly unlikely.”

Necmettin Caliskan, a deputy from the Felicity Party in Hatay, stated that “as of May 28, 2023, one phase of the Nation Alliance has concluded, and it is set to proceed as a second phase in the upcoming elections scheduled for March 2024.”

In his interview with Al-Estiklal, Deputy Caliskan says that “the Nation Alliance will continue its path during the local elections, especially in major cities, and will carry out joint activities in many cities.”

Bulent Kaya, a deputy from the Felicity Party, stated that the ruling Nation Alliance, which was formed under the leadership of the Justice and Development Party, has not disbanded and is still ongoing.

He affirmed that it should continue its path until it succeeds in the elections scheduled for March 2024.

Similarly, Kursad Zorlu, the spokesperson for the Good Party, the second-strongest party in the alliance, stated that they will decide whether or not to be within the alliance.

The decision will be made at the party’s conference during June 2023, leading up to the elections scheduled for 2024, but he was not that clear.

 

Internal Conflicts

The Nation Alliance’s defeat in the parliamentary and presidential elections had a negative impact on the Republican People’s Party.

After the election defeat, there have been demands for “change” against Kemal Kilicdaroglu within the Republican People’s Party.

The mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, was the first to call for a change in the leadership of the Republican People’s Party.

Kilicdaroglu, the leader of this party, made very clear statements on a television program on June 10, 2023.

He stated that they had succeeded in the elections despite the pressures from journalists who asked questions about the electoral program and conveyed a message that Ekrem Imamoglu should be kept as the mayor of Istanbul.

The latter responded to Kilicdaroglu’s words in a press conference by saying: “We should think about Istanbul and Turkiye,” conveying a message that he would be a candidate for the general presidency of the Republican People’s Party at the upcoming conference.

According to the opposition media, Kilicdaroglu, despite his electoral defeat, was accused of harboring a desire to become “the only man” similar to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as per their depiction, as he did not step down from the leadership of the Republican People’s Party.

During his speech on June 13, 2023, Kilicdaroglu declared that “change will open doors for me at the upcoming conference, and anyone has the opportunity to be a candidate.”

After Kilicdaroglu’s statement, the leader of the parliamentary group of the Republican People’s Party, Ozgur Ozel, announced that he became a candidate for the general presidency of the party at the conference to be held in the fall.

Along with the Nation Alliance, the reelection of Erdogan had a greater impact on the Republican People’s Party than on other parties.

It is unknown whether Kilicdaroglu will be reelected at the conference scheduled for the fall, but it is certain that this meeting will be highly controversial.

Within the Felicity Party, founded by the late Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, the internal opposition, called Haymana Consensus Delegation, accuses the party leadership of deviating from the founder’s path.

The Haymana Reconciliation Committee had been considering from the beginning the necessity of merging the Felicity Party into the People’s Alliance (Cumhur Ittifaki) established by Erdogan, not the Nation Alliance.

The Haymana Reconciliation Committee issued multiple statements since the establishment of the Nation Alliance, with the latest one shortly before the presidential elections, calling for not giving the alliance and Kilicdaroglu the party’s votes.