After Biden's Removal: Will Democrats Adopt the French Scenario Against Trump?

Since President Joe Biden announced his decision to step down from the upcoming November 2024 presidential election, discussions have focused on the reasons behind this late move and its implications.

On July 21, 2024, Biden announced his withdrawal and endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris, to succeed him in the race against Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.

Joe Biden's withdrawal suggests that a coalition of Democrats and opponents of the far-right Republican Party pushed him to step aside, paving the way for a stronger candidate to challenge Trump and his extreme evangelical base.

This move mirrors the French election scenario, where left-wing forces and the Greens united to defeat the far-right represented by Marine Le Pen's party.

The concern is that a Trump victory would evoke similar fears among Americans as the rise of the far-right in France, potentially leading to severe societal conflict and civil unrest, akin to what the French feared.

Biden's broad rejection and push to step down also stem from reasons beyond his declining mental health, particularly the withdrawal of support from many Americans due to his unwavering support for Israeli aggression in Gaza.

Therefore, the Democrats decided to promote another candidate to unite the groups and minorities divided by Biden's reckless policies supporting the Zionist genocide in Gaza.

Biden's policies had weakened the Democratic Party's cohesion, losing significant support from African Americans, Arabs, Muslims, and a crucial segment of the Jewish community, along with half a million votes from the Uncommitted movement, which vowed not to vote for him.

Consequently, there was a consensus on the need to regroup the votes Biden garnered in the 2020 election against Trump by sidelining the divisive figure and nominating a new candidate to reunite those who previously brought the Democratic Party to victory.

The French Scenario

The French elections on July 8, 2024, offered an inspiring example of strategic alliances and tactical voting, providing valuable lessons for the political landscape in countries like the UK and the U.S.

The victory of the New Popular Front coalition, which included alliances of leftist parties (Socialists and Communists), the Greens, and La France Insoumise, successfully countered the rise of the French far-right, serving as an inspiration for other Western forces.

The fragmentation of the Democratic Party's broad coalition, which includes various ethnic and religious groups, led to the adoption of the French scenario by ousting the divisive Biden to restore unity and defeat Trump.

Just as the left united with other parties to combat the far-right in the first round of the French elections and triumphed in the second round, the French scenario was invoked in the U.S.

The deep state in America acted decisively, realizing that Joe Biden was no longer the right candidate to defeat Trump, and adopted the French scenario. They believed that a populist far-right victory, represented by Trump and his running mate JD Vance, would have disastrous consequences for America and the world.

This could lead to wars fueled by nationalist and isolationist sentiments. Thus, a serious effort was needed to form a new front against the far-right, as explained by Syrian journalist and political analyst Ahmed Ramadan.This was implicitly noted by the New York Times on July 21, 2024, as they praised Joe Biden's decision not to run for re-election, calling it a patriotic act to prevent the return of the criminal Trump who violates the Constitution.

The American newspaper confirmed that Joe Biden's removal was due to his age (81 years) and deteriorating physical condition in recent months. It was done to prevent the possibility of Trump regaining the presidency and possibly controlling both houses of Congress, which could lead to chaos in America and the world.

In their July 22, 2024, editorial, they also stated that Joe Biden's decision not to run significantly increases his party's chances of protecting the nation from the dangers of Donald Trump's return to the presidency.

Whether this candidate is Joe Biden's vice president, Harris, or someone else will be revealed at the party's convention on August 19, 2024, to announce who will face Trump. This solution appeared to be good for saving the party, as some who had left began to return.

Signs of the plan's success emerged when a Reuters poll on July 23, 2024, showed Harris leading Trump after Joe Biden's withdrawal.

Harris outperformed Trump with 44 percent compared to Trump's 42 percent, according to Reuters.

More Solidarity?

Choosing Joe Biden's vice president, Kamala Harris, might be a key part of this plan, as she is African-Asian, likely garnering support from Black, Asian, and African communities.

Her stance on Gaza is "relatively" different from Joe Biden's, which might bring back groups that left the party, such as Muslims and the Uncommitted movement.

Kamala Harris is less affected by Joe Biden's catastrophic support for the Israeli Occupation’s war on Gaza, which has sparked some hope among pro-Palestine supporters, according to The Intercept on July 21, 2024.

She avoided attending Netanyahu's speech in Congress on July 24, 2024, despite the tradition of sitting behind him as the vice president. This might have been to show her relative difference from Joe Biden, although she met him later.

Politico magazine noted on July 22, 2024, that regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Harris might be more sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians.

This could mitigate the anger among Arab American voters and others who criticize Joe Biden's strong support for Israeli war efforts in Gaza.

It pointed out that Harris has been clear in her support for the Israeli Occupation’s right to defend itself, but she has emphasized the importance of protecting innocent civilians. This cautious balance could be key to gaining broader support both domestically and internationally.

The magazine affirmed that while Harris may not be the preferred candidate for Netanyahu's supporters, she remains a strong advocate for “Israel.”

Harris was among the first to express concern about the plight of Palestinian civilians in Gaza. However, she also believes that Hamas must be defeated.

Reuters reports that as a presidential candidate, Harris is expected to largely adhere to Joe Biden's foreign policy playbook on key issues like Ukraine, China, and Iran, but she might adopt a tougher stance on “Israel” regarding the war on Gaza.

American analysts fear a problem may arise if Joe Biden's foreign policy support for “Israel” continues until the election, potentially leading to ongoing discord within the Democratic coalition.

However, Bloomberg reported on July 22, 2024, that Biden, seeking to demonstrate strength abroad despite his lame-duck status, might be softening his stance on the Gaza crisis to pave the way for Harris.

The term "lame duck" in American politics refers to an outgoing president or official who remains in office but will not continue into the next term, either due to losing an election or not seeking re-election.

Bloomberg confirmed that stepping out of the presidential race would allow Biden to focus on foreign policy during the remainder of his term.

The problem, however, lies in his policy towards Gaza and “Israel,” which has driven some Democrats away from their party.

A New Opportunity

Hours after Joe Biden announced he would not seek a second term, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he did not intend to ease American efforts to mediate a "ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas."

In what appears to be an attempt to close this divisive issue before the elections, which could benefit Trump, Joe Biden pledged to spend his remaining six months in office trying to end the war in Gaza.

According to Axios on July 23, 2024, Biden said he would continue to work with Israelis and Palestinians to reach an agreement on hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza, adding, "We are on the verge of getting that."

The New York Times on July 22, 2024, noted that the Democratic Party views Harris as an opportunity to refocus voters' attention on the weaknesses of former President Donald Trump (78 years old) instead of Biden.

It confirmed that with Joe Biden's withdrawal and Harris's anticipated nomination, the Democrats are moving to capitalize on Trump's legal troubles.

Harris, a former prosecutor, is described as a candidate of "law and order," while Americans often see Trump as "anti-law," who attempted to overturn the results of a free election in 2020, according to the New York Times.

Harris contrasted her record as a prosecutor with that of the former president, stating that she has confronted criminals of all kinds, from those who abuse women to fraudsters who steal from consumers and cheaters who break the rules for their own gain.

In her message aimed at shifting the attack from Joe Biden to Trump, she said she knows what kind of person Donald is, implying he is a criminal, as reported by Axios on July 24, 2024.

The New York Times noted that Joe Biden's departure provides an opportunity for Democrats to shift public focus from questions about the president's fitness for office to the evident ethical and temperamental unfitness of Trump, and the risks of re-arming him with the expansive powers of the presidency.

The newspaper described Trump as a "law-breaking, constitution-violating, persistently lying criminal driven by no cause greater than his self-interest, and a reckless politician indifferent to the welfare of the American people.

His tenure caused lasting damage to the American people, the American project, and its reputation worldwide. In a second term, he would act with fewer constraints, and he and his advisors have made it clear they intend to wield power ruthlessly, the same source said.

American analysts believe that Trump faces trials that could lead to a conviction even if he wins the presidency, and the pressures might force him to step down for his vice president.