After 19 Years of Absence: How Will Reformists Change Iranian Politics?

By winning the second round of the snap Iranian presidential elections that took place on July 5, Masoud Pezeshkian thwarted the conservatives’ dominance of the country’s rule, and returned the reformists to the political scene after more than 19 years, specifically since the departure of Mohammad Khatami, the last reformist president, from the presidential palace in Tehran.

On the morning of July 6, the Iranian Ministry of Interior announced that Pezeshkian had won over his conservative rival, Saeed Jalili, with about 55% of the votes in the elections, in which the participation rate reached 49.8%, a percentage was considered by observers to be very high in light of the atmosphere prevailing over the Iranian scene since the killing of former President Ibrahim Raisi last May.

Currently, attention is turning to the external repercussions of this victory, and the changes it could bring about in Iranian policies, especially the nuclear issue, relations with the United States, and the Israeli war on Gaza.

On the internal level, observers believe that the return of reformists to the scene may witness tangible changes in the course of political and social freedoms, in an attempt to remedy the negative effects resulting from conservative policies aimed at restricting freedoms and persecuting those with opinions.

Radical Changes

While the world looks expectantly at the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, whether he will be able to pull Iran out of its international isolation and implement his reform promises internally, questions are increasing about his true orientations and their impact on the country’s future.

Pezeshkian, 69 years old, had the support of leaders of the reformist and moderate movement, including former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani.

Pazashkian's positions appear to be dual, as he is a reformist politician who always pushes for change, but does not radically challenge the ruling establishment supervised by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

It is noteworthy that Pezeshkian did not promise to make radical changes to the theocratic rule in Iran during his election campaign, and Khamenei was considered the final decisive factor in all state affairs in the country.

During his election campaign, Pezeshkian promised to reach out to the West and ease the application of the hijab law in the country, after years of sanctions and protests that affected the Islamic Republic.

The results of the vote counting presented by the authorities indicated that Pezeshkian won 16.3 million votes, compared to 13.5 million votes for Jalili, in Friday’s elections.

Authorities counted 607,575 invalid votes in the election, often a sign of protest by those who feel compelled to cast a ballot, but reject both candidates.

Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei issued advice to the new president to continue the path of the late President Ebrahim Raisi, and to make the most of the country’s many capabilities, especially the young, revolutionary and loyal human resources.

On his part, Interim President Mohammad Mokhber said that the current government will do its utmost to help the elected president.

Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, pledged to work with the government, saying: “Parliament’s only interest is meeting the demands of the people, especially solving economic problems.”

Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje praised the elections, declaring the judiciary's readiness to fully cooperate and assist the government.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami said in congratulating Pezeshkian: “We are ready to cooperate with the government.”

It is noteworthy that Pezeshkian has sound relations with IRGC, having served with them in a medical capacity during the Iran/Iraq war (1980-1988). 

Iran-West Relations

The return of reformists to the presidency of Iran comes at a sensitive moment, as tensions are high in the Middle East due to Israel’s war on Gaza, Iran's advanced nuclear program, and the upcoming elections in the United States that may jeopardize any chance of rapprochement between Tehran and Washington.

Although Khamenei remains the final decision-maker on all state affairs, whoever wins the presidency can direct the country's foreign policy toward confrontation or cooperation with the West.

It is noteworthy that Pezeshkian does not have sufficient experience in the field of foreign policy, but he pledged to empower Iran's elite diplomats and globalists to manage his foreign agenda, raising hopes for warmer relations with the West.

He had pledged to adopt a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions associated with now-stalled negotiations with major powers to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, and improve prospects for social freedoms and political pluralism.

Pezeshkian hopes that reviving talks with the West will lead to the lifting of strict U.S. sanctions, in light of growing popular dissatisfaction with economic difficulties.

But White House spokesman John Kirby recently said that the United States is not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran under the new president.

In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran, which prompted Tehran to gradually violate the nuclear restrictions of the agreement.

On the other hand, diplomats and analysts believe that Iranian foreign policies have taken an increasingly more stringent turn in recent years, and this trend may continue during the Pezeshkian era.

Since the economy remains a weak point for Khamenei, freedom from crippling US sanctions that have cost Iran billions of dollars in oil income will remain Pezeshkian's top economic goal.

Analysts say that Iran's economic outlook appears more uncertain than ever, with the possibility that Trump's return could lead to the imposition of tougher sanctions on the oil sector.

Political Dilemmas

Pezeshkian has a close relationship with Khamenei, but this will not enable him to bring about the fundamental changes that many pro-reform Iranians are demanding, according to analysts.

But even Pezeshkian's modest goals will face challenges from Iranian decision-making circles controlled by hard-line fundamentalist clerics.

Analysts say that it is very likely that Pezeshkian will end up in a similar situation to his two predecessors, the reformist President Mohammad Khatami and the pragmatist Hassan Rouhani, who raised the morale of Iranians aspiring to change, but those with great influence (conservatives, hardliners, clerics, and the IRGC) prevented them from doing so.

“Pezeshkian is neither a reformist nor a moderate. As a foot soldier of Khamenei, he will be subjected to his wishes which clearly has been to rule by violence and repression,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of New York-based advocacy group the Centre for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI).

On the internal level, Pezeshkian will seek to put an end to the differences between the political forces, which he says are the main reason for the country’s predicaments.

On the other hand, Pezeshkian denounces the use of violence by the police to impose the compulsory hijab. He said: “We oppose any violent and inhuman behavior, including towards our sisters and daughters, and we will not allow such actions.”

As a parliamentarian in 2022, Pezeshkian had criticized the ruling establishment over the death of the young Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, who was in police custody, and whose death sparked months of popular protests in the country.

In turn, analyst Ibrahim Khatib explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “Pezeshkian’s rise came as a result of two main factors; the first is the Khamenei regime’s need for a reformist face in the next stage, especially with the expectations of former US President Donald Trump returning to the White House.”

“Tehran fears the return of Trump's policies of imposing severe sanctions and punishing the Iranian regime, and thus allowing the victory of a reformist president in order to improve relations with the West in general,” he added.

The second factor is related to Iran's internal situation, which is about to explode due to the deteriorating economic and social conditions, according to Mr. Khatib.

He concluded that “the Supreme Leader in Iran is the one who controls everything in the country, and the statements he made after the results were announced prove that.”