What Are the Implications of Leaking Secret Israeli Plans for Strike on Iran?

US investigators are seeking to uncover how two top-secret intelligence documents, which appeared on the Telegram app and contain a US assessment of Israeli plans for a strike on Iran, based on satellite imagery and other intelligence.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said President Joe Biden is deeply concerned about the leak.

Both CNN and Axios described the incident as a major security breach that undermines the scope of a potential Israeli attack on Iran.

The implications of the leak became more serious after the British newspaper The Times reported on October 24, 2024, that “Israel” had delayed its response to Iran after the leak of the secret US documents.

The newspaper quoted an intelligence source as saying that Israel’s delay in its response to Iran was due to the need to change some strategies.

Since early October, Iran has been anticipating a possible attack by Tel Aviv, after Tehran fired about 180 missiles at “Israel” in response to Israeli attacks, while Tel Aviv vowed to launch a strong and large attack on Tehran.

Expectations indicate that the expected Israeli attack may target Iran's nuclear facilities, as well as military and economic sites.

Israeli Preparations

US House Speaker Mike Johnson reported on October 20 that an investigation is underway into the leak of classified US intelligence documents related to Israel's preparations for a strike on Iran.

A US official told the Associated Press that the investigation is examining how the documents were obtained, including whether they were intentionally leaked from within the US intelligence community, or were obtained in another way such as hacking, and whether any other intelligence information was leaked.

On October 19, senior US officials expressed concern over the leak of two US intelligence documents, which dealt with Israeli preparations for a strike on Iran, which were published by a Telegram account linked to Iran.

According to the Walla website, a Telegram account called ‘Middle East Spectator’ said on October 18 that it received documents from a source in the US intelligence community about Israeli preparations for a strike on Iran.

The documents included a report by the US Department of Defense's Visual Intelligence Agency, which included details of preparatory operations in recent days at several Israeli Air Force bases, including the transfer of advanced weapons.

The documents also contain notes that appear to be intended exclusively for the United States and its partners in the so-called Five Eyes group, which also includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK.

One of the documents reveals that “Israel” maintains a nuclear weapons arsenal which, for decades, has been an open secret, according to CNN.

According to Yedioth Ahronoth, the leak included details about Israel's preparations in recent days at several bases for a ballistic attack against Iranian Revolutionary Guard military facilities, noting that the leak changed those attack plans and forced “Israel” to develop an alternative plan.

In turn, a senior Israeli security official denied the accuracy of the reports about “Israel” postponing its response to the Iranian attack after the details of its plan were leaked.

“There is no connection between the leak of the documents from the Pentagon and the choice of the timing of the attack on Iran,” the security official added.

On October 1, Iran launched an attack with about 180 missiles in retaliation for the assassination of the former head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in addition to Israel's massacres in Gaza and Lebanon.

Following the Iranian retaliatory attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and military leaders vowed to launch a strong and massive attack on Tehran, without specifying a date.

In return, Tehran vowed that it would respond by striking Israel’s infrastructure extensively and comprehensively if the latter responded to its retaliatory attack.

Leak or Hack

In the same context, a BBC report suggested that the recent documents may have been intentionally leaked by someone who wanted to thwart Israel's plans to attack Iran.

It is worth noting that Iran has a large and sophisticated cyber-warfare capability so the possibility of a hostile hack is also being investigated.

The BBC noted that these documents, if genuine as thought highly likely, show that despite the close defence relationship between the US and Israel, Washington still spies on its ally in case it is not being given the full picture.

The documents also show that plans by the Israeli Air Force to carry out some kind of long-range retaliation against Iran are well advanced and that mitigation is being put in place against an expected Iranian response.

The BBC also warned that if “Israel” carries out these plans then the Middle East will once again experience a period of extreme tension.

In turn, the New York Times commented on the matter, quoting experts as saying that the leak revealed how little the Joe Biden administration knew about the future plans of the United States' most prominent allies.

The newspaper indicated that Biden administration officials are divided in their assessment of the seriousness of what the leaks entailed, as some considered that the damage would be limited unless other documents emerged about the United States spying on one of its closest allies.

Others, meanwhile, saw that any process of revealing the war plans of an ally constitutes a serious problem.

According to the newspaper, American officials confirmed behind the scenes the authenticity of the documents, suggesting that a government employee in the lower ranks was the source of the leak, based on previous experiences.

On her part, Israeli Knesset member from the Likud party, Tally Gotliv, said that the leak of documents related to an Israeli plan to strike Iran was done deliberately with the aim of preventing an attack.

Gotliv considered that the person responsible for this leak is not just a low-ranking employee, but rather holds a high position, stressing that this incident was not a coincidence.

US Involvement

It is noteworthy that this is not the first case of leaking documents about Israeli preparations for a large-scale attack on Iran.

In 2012, Foreign Policy magazine reported that “Israel” was planning to strike Iranian nuclear facilities via air bases in Azerbaijan.

According to analysts, the apparently deliberate leak may have disrupted the operation at the time, as several officials claimed that members of the Democratic US administration sought to prevent “Israel” from striking Iranian nuclear sites.

This prompts observers not to ignore the suspicions about elements within the current US administration regarding the responsibility for the recent leak.

On his part, analyst and writer Janatan Sayeh, in an analysis for the Long War magazine, believes that there are several reasons related to the possibility of the Biden administration’s involvement in leaking the latest Israeli plans to attack Iran.

“There are American-Israeli differences over the size and objectives of the Israeli strike on Iran, in addition to the existence of active secret diplomacy between the United States and Iran due to the presence of friends of Tehran within the Democratic Party, especially among progressives,” he adds.

Sayeh also notes that “the question today is about the repercussions of this breach in US national security on domestic policies, especially during the presidential election campaign season, and externally on the credibility of the United States towards its allies and partners.”

In turn, political analyst Ibrahim Khatib told Al-Estiklal that the leak comes at a very sensitive moment in terms of US-Israeli relations.

He also stressed that the incident greatly angered the Israelis, especially since one of the documents contains indications of an issue that Tel Aviv has long kept secret, namely its possession of nuclear weapons.

Mr. Khatib expected that future coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv would face problems and challenges, indicating that trust is a fundamental element in their bilateral relations.

In the context of developments, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported a few days ago that “Israel” is about to attack Iran despite US pressure calling for easing the attack.

It also revealed that Army Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi approved plans to attack Iran, which will later be presented to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu To be approved.

An Iranian military source had previously warned that if the Israeli attack on Iran included targeting any military sites, the Iranian response would be certain and would exceed Israeli estimates by far.

In preparation for the Israeli strike on Iran, the United States deployed a THAAD missile defense system in the occupied Palestinian territories last week.