What Are Russia's Objectives in Involving Itself in the Western Sahara Conflict?

Russia is taking advantage of its proximity to Algeria and Morocco to try to play on the conflict between the two countries and establish a foothold in the Maghreb region through the Western Sahara issue.

UN envoy to the Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, arrived in Russia on March 11, 2024, and held a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his deputy, Sergey Vershinin.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric confirmed on the same day during the daily press briefing that the visit came after the Russian authorities extended an invitation to de Mistura.

This visit comes after de Mistura previously accepted an invitation from the South African government on January 31, 2024, to attend meetings to discuss the Western Sahara file.

This move was criticized by Morocco, which expressed its rejection of any role for South Africa in the issue, making de Mistura's visit to Russia carry multiple implications.

A Different Visit

Ibrahim Blali Asweih, an expert on the Western Sahara issue, saw de Mistura's visit to Russia as entirely different from his strange visit to South Africa in February 2024.

Asweih told Hespress on March 12, 2024, that "Moscow, as a permanent member of the Security Council, has a role in bridging viewpoints, and perhaps de Mistura's visit took into account Russia's weight in maintaining good relations with both Algeria and Morocco."

He noted that "the relationship between Rabat and de Mistura is not severed, especially since Rabat only expressed reservations about his visit to South Africa."

He pointed out that "de Mistura needs more time to succeed in stirring stagnant waters in this file.

"What happened in South Africa does not rise to the level of loss of confidence between Morocco and de Mistura, but it is an important occasion to demonstrate Rabat's rejection of mediation by biased countries."

Meanwhile, Tajeddine Houssaini, a professor of international relations at Mohammed V University in Rabat, confirmed that de Mistura's visit to Russia is different from his previous visit to South Africa, given the latter's known hostility to the territorial integrity of the kingdom.

In an interview with 2M on March 15, 2024, he added, "Morocco was clear and emphasized that it will not allow its Sahara to become a subject of diplomatic maneuvering by South Africa.

"Regarding Russia, I believe that de Mistura's meeting with Lavrov is not concerning Morocco for several reasons, notably that Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and a central party in the balance of power. Its relations with Morocco are good, and it has never taken an opposing stance."

The professor stated that "this visit might be beneficial for Morocco, as it opens the door to new dialogue with Russian diplomacy.

"Morocco must work in the upcoming phase to persuade Russia to abandon its silence and vote in its favor."

Polisario's Response

In response to the visit, Oubi Bouchraya Bachir, the representative of the Polisario Front in Switzerland and to the United Nations and international organizations in Geneva, affirmed that its importance stems from the context and circumstances in which it occurs.

Bachir added to the daily newspaper in Algeria, Echorouk el-Yawmi, on March 12, 2024, that Russia, in addition to being a member of the so-called Friends of Western Sahara group within the UN Security Council, is the only permanent member of the council that consistently opposes resolutions biased towards the "Moroccan occupation."

Since 1975, there has been a conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front over the Western Sahara region, which began after the end of Spanish colonization, before turning into an armed confrontation that lasted until 1991, ending with a UN-brokered agreement.

Rabat proposes an expanded autonomy for the Western Sahara region under its sovereignty, while the Polisario calls for a referendum for self-determination, a proposal supported by Algeria, which hosts refugees from the region.

Regarding the context of the visit, the representative of the Polisario Front in Switzerland described it as "extremely delicate, given the significant pressure exerted by Morocco against de Mistura to thwart his mission and push him to resign."

Bachir believed that Russia "wants to relaunch the path of political settlement based on UN resolutions and its charter, always objecting to the arbitrary and undemocratic manner in which draft resolutions are imposed without participatory discussion by all members.

"Russia, if willing, could play a significant role in restoring the lost balance within the Council, which has led to the deviation of the political settlement process from its original legitimate path agreed upon, represented in the self-determination referendum," according to his opinion.

On the other hand, Echorouk el-Yawmi mentioned that this visit comes in the context of Russia's preparations for the upcoming session of the UN Security Council on the Sahara scheduled for April 2024.

"Knowing that UN Security Council Resolution 2703 sets a 6-month deadline for the personal envoy to brief members on the developments of the conflict and the efforts made," it added.

"The upcoming Security Council session is expected to focus on assessing the progress of the political process and the possibility of resuming negotiations between the concerned parties."

De Mistura is also expected to brief Security Council members on the developments of the Sahara issue and the efforts made during his tenure, according to the assessment.

The newspaper believed that this reception indicates Russia's interest in the issue and its support for UN efforts aimed at finding a peaceful and just solution to the conflict.

Conflicting Perspectives

Moroccan writer Bilal Talidi stated that there are conflicting views regarding Stefan de Mistura's visit as the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for the Sahara issue to Moscow, especially since it did not evoke the same reactions as his visit to South Africa.

Talidi added in an opinion piece published by al-Quds al-Arabi in London on March 15, 2024, "Morocco, which strongly criticized his visit to South Africa on the grounds that this country is not a party to the conflict and cannot contribute anything to this file, did not comment on his recent visit to Moscow, while the Polisario Front welcomed it.

"It is clear that there is a fundamental difference between the visits to South Africa and Russia, at least from three aspects. Firstly, Russia is one of the permanent members of the Security Council, a status that South Africa does not have.

"Secondly, South Africa is a supportive country of the Polisario Front, hostile to Rabat, while there have been many developments in the Russian position towards the Sahara file, and Moscow has become closer to a neutral mediator supporting a political solution and balancing its interests with both Rabat and Algiers," Talidi added.

As for the third aspect, according to the writer, "the international and regional context is pushing Russia steadily to reposition itself in the Arab world, and also in the Sahel region south of the Sahara, unlike South Africa, which does not have the eligibility or capacity to aspire to play such a role."

Talidi stated that both Algerian and Moroccan diplomacy preferred silence and refrained from commenting on this visit. However, the media in both countries took a different approach.

He added that the Algerian official media did not differ in its commentary from the Polisario's argument, which hopes that the Russian role will have some impact in rolling back the clock, specifically to the three past years during which UN Security Council resolutions on the Sahara were issued. These were seen by Algeria as unbalanced and serving the Moroccan position.

The writer mentioned that Morocco's silence regarding the commentary can be interpreted from two angles. First, it might be waiting for the motives and objectives of the visit to become clearer, especially since the invitation came from Moscow, not from the UN Secretary-General's Personal Envoy.

"On the other hand, Morocco realizes that Russia not only seeks to play a fundamental role in resolving the Sahara issue but also views the Atlantic initiative as a clever maneuver, making it difficult to maintain neutrality," Talidi added.

Morocco announced the Atlantic initiative in December 2023, aiming to facilitate the access of Sahel countries to the Atlantic Ocean, with the participation of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad.

Talidi believed Russia's involvement in the Sahara issue is driven by its aim to establish a robust and competitive presence in the Sahel region south of the Sahara, particularly through the Atlantic facade project. This initiative advocates for the integration of these nations into developmental efforts rather than isolating them politically.

He emphasized that Russia recognizes the Moroccan dynamic, which enjoys strong support, and Moscow would be the biggest loser if it did not join and become a strong party in it.

Therefore, the invitation from the UN Secretary-General's Personal Envoy aims to establish the basic framework that positions Russia to push the settlement process toward a resolution, thereby securing an active role in the international dynamics concerning the Sahel region south of the Sahara.

Regarding the Moroccan-Russian relations, Radwan Ajdid, a researcher in international relations, sees they are good, and Moscow has never engaged in maneuvers against the kingdom. He anticipated forthcoming discussions between Moscow and Rabat on the matter.

Ajdid elaborated to Madar 21 on March 16, 2024, "Although Russia abstains from voting on Security Council resolutions concerning the Sahara issue, it does not indicate hostility towards Morocco. Rather, it stems from its reservations due to its strained relationship with the United States, which carries the pen and oversees the Moroccan Sahara file in the aforementioned council."

Ajdid emphasized that it is time for Moroccan diplomacy to move closer to Russia and convince it to break its silence and declare support for its initiative, especially since Moroccan–Russian economic relations have significantly developed in recent years, "political relations can further evolve."

The researcher in international relations believes that Rabat has adequately expressed its rejection of De Mistura's visit to South Africa.

"In the coming period, it will continue to demand a return to the roundtable discussions involving the conflict parties, namely Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, and the Polisario," he estimated.