Turkiye: How Early Elections Ignited Political Tension Between the Ruling Party and the Opposition

The controversy has escalated over the call of the Turkish opposition leader, Chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP), Ozgur Ozel, to hold by-elections in Parliament that would lead the country to head to early parliamentary and presidential elections.

Amid President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's categorical refusal to talk about early elections, Ozel continues his tour of various political parties to discuss his proposal to hold by-elections to fill the vacant seats in Parliament.

The parties that Ozel visited have, so far, supported his call for holding by-elections or early elections, stressing that the country needs them, in light of the state of political tension and poor economic conditions.

On the other hand, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) plans to draw up a new constitution for the country in order to open the door for Erdogan to run in the elections after he has exhausted his nominations, and to hold early elections in the fall of 2027.

Alternative Option

The Turkish opposition's demands to hold early elections, through by-elections in parliament, have ignited the country's political agenda in light of the continued denials from the People's Alliance, composed of the ruling AKP and the Nationalist Movement (MHP), to hold elections before their scheduled date in 2028.

Despite this, it is rumored within the AKP that President Erdogan is overseeing a sweeping campaign of changes in the leadership of the ruling party's branches in preparation for early elections that could be held in 2027.

In turn, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel renewed his demand for early elections, calling on President Erdogan and his party to place ballot boxes in front of voters if they are not afraid of anything.

Ozel said, in a speech during his party’s parliamentary bloc meeting on April 21, that the government fears the rule of law that will be established after the elections.

“If you are not afraid, put the ballot boxes in front of the people and let them decide whether we are thieves or are you slandering us,” he added.

As part of a plan to push Erdogan to decide to hold early elections, Ozel has been pressing for weeks to hold by-elections in parliament to fill 8 vacant seats, amid talk of a plan to raise the number of vacant seats to more than 50 seats, through the resignation of dozens of representatives from his party.

In this case, 5% of the 600 seats would be vacant, which could force Parliament to hold by-elections under the constitution.

The CHP's call for a by-election aims to reintroduce Imamoglu into parliament and grant him parliamentary immunity that would disrupt or freeze his trial.

However, this plan collided with internal obstacles, most notably the lack of consensus between the party’s leaders and representatives, and the emergence of objections that believe that blaming the representatives alone for the cost of this scenario is politically and organizationally unfair.

With this path faltering, an alternative option was moved to based on Article 78 of the Turkish Constitution, which stipulates the possibility of holding by-elections if an electoral district remains unrepresented.

Within this framework, a proposal was put forward that aims to push a representative from the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (Dem) in Tunceli State to resign, creating a constitutional condition that allows for by-elections to be held without the need for internal resignations from the CHP itself.

However, this proposal was not clearly accepted and was not passed politically, which revealed the limits of the ability to engineer this path through parties outside the party.

In parallel, clearer internal divisions emerged within the party, as some opposition representatives rejected the mass resignation, noting that any step of this magnitude should start from the top of the party leadership and not from the parliamentary base.

This internal controversy led to reformulating the proposal, so that it became based on the already vacant seats in Parliament, instead of creating new vacancies, which moved the file from the state of constitutional obligation to the space of political discretion, which is ultimately subject to the decision of the General Assembly of Parliament.

Political Escalation

On April 13, Erdogan said that if Ozel truly wants to serve the nation and women, he should stop focusing on ministerial appointments and, instead, work to address the scandals of corruption, bribery, embezzlement, and harassment that are eating away at his party like cancerous cells.

He saw that the country's main opposition party could not escape the control of criminal organizations established for profit purposes.

“Frankly, we feel very sad about what the Republican People’s Party has become, which prides itself on being the party founded by Leader Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, under its current leadership,” he added.

He concluded: “We hope that Turkish democracy in the future will have a major opposition party that has the maturity, competence, and vision it deserves.”

In turn, Ozel responded to Erdogan, saying, in a speech before his party’s parliamentary bloc meeting on April 14: “Tell Erdogan that the CHP includes soldiers and sons who swore to save this country again 100 years after the founding of the republic at the hands of Ataturk. We are ready to lay down our lives, but we will not surrender to their plans.”

At the same time, the Turkish Ministry of Interior has authorized a new investigation against Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas over allegations that some municipal vehicles were used in an election rally for the Republican People's Party in the city of Karabuk, northern Turkiye, during the duration of the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections.

The Ankara Municipality confirmed, in a statement, that the investigation file does not include any results indicating that Yavas issued direct instructions regarding the use of vehicles in electoral propaganda.

“Giving permission for the investigation, without any evidence, is aimed at intimidation and discrediting the mayor,” it said.

The statement pointed to the practices of the previous administration of the municipality, headed by Melih Gokcek, from the ruling AKP, which were not subject to any investigation despite the current administration of the municipality submitting many files to the Public Prosecution containing evidence of serious violations.

It added that Yavas was careful not to use public resources during election periods and did not receive his salary as mayor during the last local election campaign, held on March 31, 2024. He was also keen on maintaining a complete separation between public resources and political activities and personally initiated an investigation to clarify any ambiguity. The investigation, however, yielded no results.

The Ministry of Interior had previously authorized an investigation into Yavas regarding allegations that the municipality's entertainment department had wasted funds on concerts, despite his having already launched an internal investigation into the matter.

Meanwhile, a court in Mersin sentenced former HP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu to 11 months and 20 days in prison for insulting President Erdogan.

Strategic Attempts

In a striking development reflecting the complexities of the Turkish opposition, journalists Can Ozcelik and Fatih Atik, on the TGRT news channel, revealed leaks from inside Silivri Prison, where former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has been detained for nearly a year on corruption and embezzlement charges.

According to the leaks, Imamoglu stated that Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas is the most suitable candidate for the upcoming presidential race, declaring his full support for him should he decide to run.

The information circulating indicates that Imamoglu directly informed Ozel of the necessity of supporting Yavas, a move observers interpreted as a clear political message indicating his lack of enthusiasm for Ozel running as his replacement in the presidential race.

Some analysts believe that Imamoglu's support for Yavas may be a strategic attempt to avert a potential internal conflict within the party, especially given the numerous candidates vying for the opposition's nomination in the upcoming presidential election.

These leaks come amid corruption and forgery charges against Imamoglu. His trial began on March 9, at the Silivri courthouse west of Istanbul, on charges of corruption, embezzlement, and espionage.

Meanwhile, Yavas has escalated his political rhetoric in recent days, warning of what he describes as an intensifying campaign targeting CHP mayors.

He stressed the need for a unified opposition stance, arguing that the continuation of these practices threatens the country's democratic stability.

For his part, Ozel has not commented directly on the leaks regarding Imamoglu's support for Yavas, but his recent statements have focused on the idea that Imamoglu's detention is an attempt to undermine the results of future elections.

According to Turkish press reports, the party is experiencing escalating internal debate regarding the future of its leadership and potential presidential candidate, amid talk of differing viewpoints among the party's various factions.

The leaks broadcast by TGRT News have sparked widespread reaction in the Turkish media.

The channel noted that Imamoglu has begun restructuring the opposition's political landscape from inside his prison cell.

The Turkish news website Haberler indicated that Imamoglu not only informed his party leaders but also conveyed his position to other political figures, in an attempt to secure broader support for Yavas within any future electoral alliance.

Meanwhile, the Turkish newspaper Evrensel reported that Imamoglu, through close associates, emphasized that the legal proceedings will not halt the opposition's political trajectory, nor will they prevent its leaders from continuing their political activities despite the pressure.

New Leaders

Meanwhile, sources within the AKP revealed internal preparations to restructure the leadership of the ruling party's branches and formations, a move seen as early preparation for potential snap elections.

The new plan, overseen by President Erdogan, includes removing a number of veteran leaders and appointing new faces at the branch and district levels across the country, along with intensifying efforts to attract new members and reviewing the reasons for the departure of former party members.

According to sources within the party's Istanbul branch, the 39 branches in the city, home to approximately 16 million people, are undergoing comprehensive reviews and performance evaluations in preparation for changes based on the results of these assessments.

The party's evaluations link the behavior of both supportive and undecided voters—whether boycotting the vote or voting for the opposition—to achieving change in the economic situation and living standards.

These preparations come amid local and international anticipation of the election results, which will determine the features of the next phase in Turkiye and its strategic directions, both domestically and internationally.

In turn, political analyst Mahmoud Alloush explained to Al-Estiklal that the political disagreements between the CHP and the ruling party have transformed into an existential power struggle between Erdogan and his opponents.

“Erdogan is banking on what he sees as strong legal evidence to convict Imamoglu, and on the strength of state institutions, while the opposition is banking on a segment of the public,” he said.

He pointed out that the case comes within a broader context of reshaping domestic politics and external influences on it, explaining that Erdogan has been somewhat successful in dismantling the opposition camp.