Unexpected Turn in Japan’s Election: A Blow to the Ruling Party or a Shift Away from the West?

Japan's political future hangs in the balance after voters delivered a historic rebuke to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's scandal-tainted ruling coalition in a weekend snap election. Punished for rising prices and corruption scandals, no party emerged with a clear mandate, leaving the world's fourth-largest economy teetering on the edge of potential political and economic instability.

For the first time since the closing days of World War II, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan’s ruling coalition continuously since 1955, suffered an unexpected defeat at the hands of the opposition in the October 27, 2024 elections.

The LDP, along with its coalition partner Komeito, lost its majority in the National Diet (parliament), failing to secure the 233 seats needed out of 465 for a majority, with its seat count dropping by nearly 70—making it difficult for the party to form a government on its own.

Although the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) also did not win a majority, securing 148 seats, it emerged as the biggest winner with a significant gain of 50 seats, up from its previous 98.

Voting Uprising

Western reports and analyses attribute the ruling party's loss to voter backlash against Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition, which was punished for a financing scandal, rising inflation, and Japan's recent economic stagnation, which has seen the country fall to fourth in the global rankings.

However, the victory of the opposition party, known for its disagreements with the United States and its supporters' participation in pro-Gaza protests against the Israeli Occupation, raised other possible reasons for the shift in the Japanese electorate's mood and a potential change in policy.

According to NHK World, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Ishiba, and its smaller coalition partner, Komeito, secured 209 seats out of 465 after counting all but 20 seats. This coalition had previously held 279 seats, losing 70, marking the worst result since they briefly lost power in 2009. They returned to power after 15 years, until the 2024 election.

Later, it was announced that the governing coalition's seat count rose to 215, still short of a majority, after voters punished them for the finance scandal and the cost-of-living crisis. The LDP won 191 seats, down from 256 in 2021, while its ally, Komeito, lost eight seats, dropping to 24 from 32 in 2021.

The loss claimed two ministers and the leader of Komeito, Keiichi Ishii, prompting his resignation from party leadership.

On the other hand, the biggest winner was the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, which secured 148 seats, up from 98 previously, though it still remained far from a majority of 233. After their 50-seat gain, the party's leader, Yoshihiko Noda, called on other parties to support his bid for prime minister.

Another opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, made significant strides, increasing its seat count fourfold to 28.

Under Japan's constitution, parties have 30 days to form a coalition, but pressure is mounting on top politicians to act swiftly due to the economic downturn and global political challenges.

The government's defeat was foreshadowed by Prime Minister Ishiba’s candid acknowledgment of the “severe” situation facing his administration. 

He stated at a Monday news conference that he has no plans to step down and will focus on working harder to drive political reform, revive the economy, and restore public trust.

“As we face a severe security and economic environment, we cannot let politics stall,” Ishiba said. “I will steadily push forward policies in order to live up to the people’s expectations. That’s how I take my responsibility.”

Voter turnout in the election was 53.8%, marking the third-lowest rate since World War II, according to Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. This figure represents a slight decrease from the 55.9% turnout in the 2021 elections.

Severe ‘Blows’

In recent years, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has suffered heavy blows and divisions due to several scandals involving political, religious, and financial corruption.

Two major scandals have plagued the party: the first concerns its close ties with the Unification Church, founded by Sun Myung Moon, which came under intense media scrutiny following the assassination of Japan’s senior executive, blamed on the church due to the financial problems faced by his family. It was revealed that the Unification Church had made contributions to the campaigns of conservative politicians from the ruling party.

The second scandal involves financial irregularities, with $4 million in donations funneled through illegal accounts. These scandals led to the resignation of Fumio Kishida as leader of the LDP and prime minister, with Ishiba succeeding him as the new party leader and prime minister.

Ishiba called for early elections, hoping to salvage the party's image with his clean record and relative popularity, but he miscalculated, losing his party’s majority. In recent months, prosecutors raided LDP offices and filed charges against some of its members.

Elected as party leader in September 2024 and as prime minister in October, Ishiba had promised reforms to revitalize the LDP. However, many Japanese voters say this promise was unfulfilled, leading them to support other parties.

Most LDP members involved in the financial scandal belonged to a now-dissolved faction led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, assassinated in 2022. In the new parliament, the number of those members has shrunk from over 100 to only 20, a shift many see as a blessing for Ishiba, potentially pushing him toward reforms, according to Western reports.

Policy Shifts

Western media have raised concerns about a potential shift in Japan's policies, especially in relation to the ambitions of nations like China and North Korea, which may seek to exploit Japan's perceived vulnerability following election turmoil and political instability.

These reports have sounded the alarm about a potential decline in Japan's military program due to economic issues. Japan had been preparing to develop a robust defense program and revive its imperial army by increasing defense spending from 2022 to 2027.

The danger is that this shift comes before a potential victory for U.S. Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential elections. Trump had previously attempted to pressure Tokyo into paying more for U.S. military support during his previous term (2017-2021).

“Any indication that Japan's defense policy initiatives could slow down or become less ambitious would encourage China and North Korea to claim that Japan is weak and belittle Washington’s efforts to bolster the U.S.-Japan alliance,” said Nicholas Szechenyi, a U.S.-Japan relations expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank.

However, an analysis by Responsible Statecraft on October 29 suggested that no significant shift in Japan's policy is likely. “When the dust finally settles, don’t expect to see any major change in Japan’s policy of dutifully following the United States to counter China’s rise. [..] The new kingmakers in Tokyo tend to be anti-Beijing hawks.” 

Another factor in Japan's growing tensions with the U.S. was the Israeli genocide in Gaza, which put Tokyo in a difficult position as a U.S. ally. Japan aligned with Washington's position to support “Israel,” but later distanced itself, urging a halt to Israeli war crimes in response to public pressure.

According to The Mainichi, one of Japan’s major newspapers, an increasing number of young people have expressed solidarity with Palestinians, calling for an end to the ongoing Israeli aggression on Gaza. Protests have taken place at Japanese universities, including Sophia University in Tokyo, as well as in the streets, where students have staged demonstrations calling for an immediate ceasefire. Some have symbolized the Israeli genocide by lying motionless, representing scenes from Gaza.

In response to the opposition parties' strong support for Gaza, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated before the recent elections that if he wins, he will work towards a ceasefire in Gaza. 

“We need an immediate ceasefire,” he told Arab News Japan. “Secondly, we must return to the Oslo agreements and implement them, which means establishing a Palestinian state. Thirdly, we must see what the new US administration will do.”

What Might Happen?

With the ruling coalition (the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito) falling short of the 233-seat simple majority by 18 seats, even with support from six independents, it now needs to seek backing from other parties.

Foreign reports speculate that the prime minister from the ruling party may either step down or form an alliance with the opposition to secure a majority, following the coalition’s loss of nearly 70 seats and its parliamentary majority.

When results were announced, the prime minister initially appeared resistant to resignation, sparking a competition among parties to form coalitions and secure a majority in parliament, in preparation for the upcoming vote for the next prime minister within weeks.

Local news reports suggest this outcome may compel the ruling coalition to negotiate power-sharing deals with opposition parties. However, the Japanese public is concerned that the election results could trigger political instability, especially given Japan’s tough economic challenges and rising security tensions in East Asia due to Chinese and North Korean threats.

For now, the Liberal Democratic Party does not plan to formally include opposition parties in the coalition. Instead, it intends to work with opposition parties on a policy-by-policy basis, according to NHK World.

Prime Minister Ishiba has also affirmed his intention to remain in office and uphold the coalition government, citing economic stability as a priority, making it clear he will not step down.

Kyodo News reported that he dismissed the idea of expanding the coalition but expressed an openness to incorporate opposition policy proposals after his party’s significant election loss.

In response, Ishiba pledged to enact major reforms within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and to continue his role as prime minister to address Japan’s mounting economic and security challenges.

He acknowledged that the primary cause of the electoral defeat was the party's failure to address public distrust and frustration over inaccurate reports related to political funds and financial issues.

To secure Ishiba’s re-election as prime minister, the ruling party is expected to initiate behind-the-scenes negotiations with opposition members ahead of a special parliamentary session. Talks among the parties are already underway, although there are mixed predictions of the outcome.

Reuters said the ruling coalition's failure to retain a majority in Sunday's lower house elections will likely force Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party to court smaller opposition parties like the  Democratic Party for the People (DPP) to stay in power.

The DPP saw seats at the lower house quadruple by campaigning to boost real wages and household income, including cutting taxes. It has also criticized the Bank of Japan's efforts to raise rates, according to the news agency.

‘The Kingmaker’

Japanese sources indicate that the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, aiming for the role of prime minister, now has an opportunity to challenge the ruling party following a gain of 50 seats.

Japan’s main opposition party announced that its strong performance in Sunday’s general election has “made a change of government an achievable target,” as reported by Kyodo News.

Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, stated at a press conference that losing the lower house majority was a “huge achievement” for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Komeito.

Commenting on the result's impact in a political landscape where the ruling party has held power almost continuously since 1955, he said, “We now truly are on the eve of a change of government.”

Masato Kamikubo, a political science professor at Ritsumeikan University, noted that most Japanese trust Noda, a former prime minister. He told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that Noda is a highly pragmatic conservative and that his stance does not differ much from that of the Liberal Democratic Party.

A survey by Kyodo News over the past two days had 53% of respondents saying they “do not want the ruling coalition” to continue.

The approval rating of the Ishiba-led Cabinet has plunged to 32.1%, a significant decline from 50.7% before the election.

Three scenarios now appear likely. The first is that the Liberal Democratic Party, with support from Komeito, six independents, and potential defectors from opposition parties, could form a new ruling coalition with a slim majority.

The second scenario is that the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan could take the lead in forming a government with backing from various parties.

The third and most probable scenario: The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition would receive support from the Free Democratic Party, currently seen as the ‘kingmaker.’

If realized, this would increase the coalition's seat count to over 240, including the six independents, giving it a majority.

As The Guardian noted, “Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic party must try to find a third coalition partner after bruising election result creates political turmoil.”