Race to the White House: Trump vs. Harris – Key Strengths and Vulnerabilities

The U.S. presidential election has entered its countdown phase, marked by intense polarization and escalating rhetoric between Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

Set for November 5, 2024, this election is the sixtieth in U.S. history and coincides with elections for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, gubernatorial races, and state legislatures.

The winner is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, after securing at least 270 electoral votes out of a total of 538.

Harris stood in front of the Vice President's residence in Washington, D.C., delivering a brief but cutting speech, in which she described Trump as an “unserious man” and “weird.” She also labeled him a “fascist” and “increasingly unhinged and unstable”.

Meanwhile, Trump continued his attacks at a forum in North Carolina, describing Harris as “lazy” and “stupid.” He said her party nominated her just because of her race and gender, warning that they could completely lose their country if Harris wins the presidency.

In this critical moment, several polls have emerged assessing the likelihood of victory for either candidate.

What strengths and weaknesses could tip the scales in the election battle between the candidates?

Notable Closeness in Polls

Recent polls indicate a competitive race, with Trump leading Harris in some surveys just weeks before the election.

According to a poll by the Financial Times published on October 24, Trump has a slight edge over Harris on economic issues, with 44% of respondents expressing confidence in Trump's ability to handle the economy compared to 43% for Harris.

Another poll from the Wall Street Journal released a day earlier shows Trump ahead of Harris by 47% to 45%. This survey included 1,500 registered voters between October 19 and 22, with a margin of error of around 2.5 percentage points.

Conversely, a Reuters poll conducted in partnership with Ipsos on the same day indicates a slight lead for Harris, who garnered 46% compared to Trump's 43%.

On October 21, a Washington Post poll revealed a tight race, particularly in seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina in the East, along with Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. This poll, which surveyed 5,000 voters, found both candidates at 47%.

An October poll by ABC News shows Harris ahead with 50% to Trump's 48% among likely voters. However, this reflects a decline for Harris, who was previously leading with 52% to 46% in the September poll.

One of the key polls in this critical October period was released by CBS News in collaboration with YouGov, revealing Harris ahead at 51% compared to 48% for Trump among likely voters.

Trump's Prospects

Regarding Trump's chances, Rob Arlett, a member of the Republican Party’s conservative bloc, states that recent assassination attempts on Trump have increased his appeal, garnering sympathy from many Americans.

In an exclusive interview with Al-Estiklal, he clarified that this isn't the only or even primary reason for Trump’s potential success; rather, it is his focus on key American societal issues.

These issues include economic improvement, abortion, family matters, immigration reform, and border control.

Arlett also pointed out a weakness for Trump’s opponents, noting that, similar to the “Israel”-Palestine conflict, the Biden-Harris administration’s failed foreign policies have contributed to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

In contrast, he believes Trump would reduce U.S. funding to Ukraine while encouraging more active financial support from the European Union and NATO for Kyiv.

Arlett also asserts that Trump would give Russian President Vladimir Putin an ultimatum to cease his aggression in Ukraine or face consequences, something the Biden-Harris administration has not effectively addressed.

He emphasized that Trump’s key strength lies not only in economic reforms but also in his southern border security policy, insisting that elected officials must enforce immigration laws to maintain national integrity.

Arlett highlighted that the Biden-Harris administration’s allowance of over 14 million illegal immigrants into the U.S. has hurt their standing with many voters, as it has increased financial burdens on American taxpayers.

“Voters are more concerned about issues affecting their daily lives, including border security, the economy, gas prices, housing, education, and crime,” he told Al-Estiklal.

Arlett noted that many Americans see Trump as a capable economic leader with viable solutions, particularly resonating with voters in key states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

However, he cautioned that this does not guarantee Trump a definitive victory, as polls indicate a near tie in key swing states.

Harris's Prospects

At 59, Harris is poised to be more active and capable of representing her party cohesively. She has the potential to turn the tables on the 78-year-old Trump and exploit this dynamic to her advantage.

In a July 23, 2024 report from its North America correspondent, the BBC said a key strength for Harris is her ability to rally support from Black voters, who polls indicate have distanced themselves from Biden in recent months.

Harris's success could hinge on her ability to galvanize not only Black voters but also secure further backing from other minorities, such as Muslims and younger voters, reminiscent of former President Barack Obama’s winning coalition in 2008 and 2012. This could significantly boost her chances in several battleground states critical to the election.

On October 24, the Associated Press published an analytical report assessing the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates, highlighting that Harris outperforms Trump on vital issues such as abortion, election integrity, climate change, middle-class taxation, and disaster management.

The report also indicated that both candidates are on equal footing regarding crime control and Middle Eastern conflicts. However, Trump holds a significant advantage over Harris in tariffs and immigration issues.

The American news agency noted that Trump’s previous presidency continues to haunt him, as he can no longer claim that the economy is a strong point in his campaign as he once did.

According to political strategist Matt Bennett of the centrist Democratic group Third Way, Trump has been a polarizing figure in American politics for more than eight years now. Most Americans have strongly held, and deeply ingrained, opinions about the man by now.

“If anti-Trump sentiment puts Harris over the top on election day, her latest strategic emphasis will have paid off. If not, the second-guessing will come fast and furious,” he told BBC.