'He Likes Me, and I Like Him’—Will bin Salman’s Billions Flow to Trump’s Pockets Again?

The bullet fired at Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during his speech at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, served as a boost to his campaign, increasing his chances of winning the presidency and entering the White House, as reflected by the opinion polls.

The question of what the world will look like during his potential second term is increasingly pressing, especially in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront. The kingdom's ties with Trump and his family persisted even after his loss to the current President Joe Biden in 2020.

What will the future of Trump’s relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi royal court look like if he wins? What major agreements might emerge from their partnership?

Major Deal

One of the most notable reflections of the Washington-Riyadh relationship was Trump's speech during his first term, specifically on October 3, 2018. He warned Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz that he would not remain in power for two weeks without U.S. military support.

Trump said to cheers at the rally in Southaven, Mississippi, that Saudi Arabia and its king would not last “for two weeks” without U.S. military support at a rally in Mississippi on Tuesday.

“We protect Saudi Arabia. Would you say they’re rich? And I love the king, King Salman. But I said King – we’re protecting you – you might not be there for two weeks without us – you have to pay for your military.”

Years later, on July 19, 2024, in his first speech after the assassination attempt, Trump spoke for 93 minutes in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. His main message was that he would change everything, emphasizing that countries seeking U.S. protection (like Saudi Arabia and Taiwan) must pay for it. He even used the phrase "pay, pay" to drive his point home.

Yemeni academic Ahmed al-Dubai, a professor at the University of Edinburgh, posted on Facebook saying, "If Trump wins, he is set for the biggest protection deal in history."

“Biden stated that Saudi Arabia had requested protection and permission for civilian nuclear energy in exchange for recognizing and normalizing relations with Israel."

"Trump will likely seize this issue and turn it into the largest deal possible for American-style protection," he added.

According to al-Dubai, Saudi Arabia’s actions reveal its belief in its inability to self-protect and its lack of vision for self-defense in the region.

"This Saudi behavior will make the Houthis and the Iranian axis see Saudi Arabia as an easy target, while the U.S. will likely keep this Iranian axis in place to continue extorting Gulf states," he concluded.

“Trump’s statements highlight that Saudi Arabia is deeply engrossed in entertainment and lacks a strategy for self-defense and regional protection,” al-Dubai concluded.

‘He Likes Me, I Like Him’

In a July 16, 2024, interview with Bloomberg, Trump discussed his relationship with Mohammed bin Salman and his vision for future relations with Saudi Arabia.

Trump said the Saudis want dominance in the energy sector, while he wants to open more energy exploration projects in the U.S.

He added about bin Salman, “He likes me, I like him. They’re always going to need protection. They’re not gonna—they’re not naturally protected [the Saudis]. They’re always going to need protection, and I’ll always protect them. I’ve had a great relationship with him.”

The most significant point Trump made was regarding a $450 billion deal with Saudi Arabia for protection. He noted that his first stop during his presidency was Saudi Arabia, a departure from the usual first visit to the United Kingdom.

It’s been a while, but I have a very good relationship. You know, I did something that got no publicity, but it was a great thing. I went to Saudi Arabia as my first stop —which is different because, in almost all instances, you [US presidents] go to the UK. And I was all set to go to the UK. And Mohammed called me, he said, ‘I’d love to have you come here.’

I said, Look, here’s what I’ll do. I’ll come. But I want you to give $450 billion to American companies.

$450 billion. He said, ‘Hmm. Never thought of that.’ And I said I will come with those companies. And I did. And he gave $450 billion. And I never saw anything like it, because I sat there as the money was going out.

And I protected them very much during my term.

Saudi Payments

On October 22, 2019, Trump stated in an interview with Fox News that Saudi Arabia pays its share for the deployment of U.S. troops on its soil.

He said that Iran attacked Saudi oil tankers, and he sent troops there to protect them.

Trump said Saudi Arabia pays for its protection, noting that he had asked Riyadh to cover all expenses, including those for the soldiers.

Trump highlighted that this was unprecedented compared to previous administrations.

He further stated that “Saudi Arabia paid 100% of the costs for our forces to protect them in a negotiation that took less than a minute.”

A report from Deutsche Welle on March 25, 2018, which may still reflect the 2024 situation with Trump possibly returning to the White House, described how Trump is determined to extract every penny from Saudi Arabia.

The report noted that, as a businessman, Trump knows how to amass billions before becoming president and understands how to leverage Saudi wealth effectively.

Deutsche Welle also discussed a unique deal between Trump and bin Salman, where the prince aims to solidify his rule for life in exchange for Trump providing protection and security, effectively becoming the “real king.”

The German site pointed out that the deal comes amid Saudi Arabia’s declining financial revenues and increasing economic and political challenges, including falling oil prices and the worsening Yemen conflict.

It added that bin Salman seeks full U.S. support against the expanding Iranian influence in the Middle East, which includes purchasing the latest American weapons and constructing 16 nuclear reactors similar to Iran’s.

Is He Serious?

Despite recent history, the question remains about the billions Saudi Arabia has paid for Trump's protection: Will Trump truly defend the kingdom if it faces real danger? Only recent events can answer this.

On September 19, 2019, just months after receiving billions from Saudi Arabia for its protection, the BBC conducted a survey on Trump's commitment to defending the kingdom in light of the Iranian-backed Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco that same month.

From Trump's declaration that he did not want to confront Iran despite acknowledging its involvement, to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement affirming Saudi Arabia's right to defend its interests, many questions remain unanswered.

The BBC asked if President Trump is leveraging these situations to extort more money from Saudi Arabia.

Trump said about the Aramco attack that it was an attack on Saudi Arabia, not on Americans, but he will certainly help the Saudis. They are a great ally and have spent $400 billion on U.S. investments in recent years.

Trump indicated that he believed it was Saudi Arabia's responsibility to handle its own defense. He suggested that if the U.S. were to assist, the Saudis would be expected to pay for the help. He noted that if the U.S. decided to take action, the Saudis would need to contribute financially, a fact he believed they fully understood.

The British network noted that this is not the first time Trump has made such statements. He often repeats that he has told Saudi leaders they must pay if they want America to protect them.

BBC raised questions among analysts about whether Trump uses these moments to secure more funds from Saudi Arabia, especially given his previous comments about deals worth $400 billion, which he claimed could create 1.5 million American jobs.

Critics have also pointed to the inability of U.S. forces stationed in Saudi Arabia to detect and intercept the Houthi attacks on Aramco facilities.

Now, as Trump prepares for a second term, will history repeat itself, with Trump securing more multi-billion-dollar deals to bolster the US economy and exert control, potentially in exchange for little action?