Geopolitical Gains: Are US-Turkish Relations Heading for a Different Path?

In the presence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US president Donald Trump recently made a statement expressing warmth and friendship toward Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

He proposed acting as a mediator to resolve any issues between Israel and Turkiye, implicitly signaling acceptance of Turkish influence in Syria.

Analysts believe Trump’s deliberate discussion of Turkiye’s role in Syria and his praise of Erdogan signals American dissatisfaction with Israel’s military approach to counter Turkish influence in Syria, and Washington’s reluctance to support that approach.

It's worth noting that Trump views Erdogan as a leader capable of holding the reins of power in the country, especially since their respective terms extend until 2028. This is an opportunity the Republican leader sees as worth investing in at all levels.

Close Friendship

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his confidence that relations between his country and the United States will flourish in all areas thanks to the close friendship between him and his American counterpart, Donald Trump.

This came in a speech he delivered at the official opening of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum on April 11, emphasizing that Turkiye attaches great importance to achieving the $100 billion trade target with its ally and strategic partner, the United States.

In a separate development, Erdogan affirmed that Turkiye will do its utmost to ensure that the escalating trade competition, which is characterized by tariffs, does not become destructive.

In a speech to members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on April 9, he said that the Turkish economic program, adopted in May 2023, has made it resilient to external shocks.

He emphasized that the world is rapidly transitioning from a unipolar system to a multipolar system, particularly in terms of economic and military capabilities.

He noted that Turkiye is one of the countries that has been able to read and manage situations and maintain a strong position on the ground and at the negotiating table during this historical and painful process.

He emphasized that global actors agree that no equation can be created without Turkiye.

Turkiye does not expect any negative impact on its trade, production, or exports as a result of the tariffs Trump imposed this month on dozens of countries (later suspended).

Turkiye is among the economies that have been spared the 10% reciprocal US tariffs and is seen as one of the few emerging countries that could benefit.

Turkish businesses hope to capitalize on the relatively lenient new US tariffs on their country to raise their profile and increase exports.

Turkiye, whose iron, steel, and aluminum exports were hurt by previous US tariffs, may now benefit from higher US tariffs on other global traders.

Trade between Turkiye and the US amounts to over $30 billion. After Germany, the US is Turkiye's second most important trading partner. 

Turkish exports to the US have risen by an average of 16% over the past five years, while US exports to Turkiye have increased by 9%.

US-Turkish Agreements

Fox News quoted two informed sources as saying that Trump is currently considering lifting sanctions on Turkiye and expressing interest in completing the sale of F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to Ankara, following a phone call he had with Erdogan last month.

Trump has expressed his intention to finalize the deal if the US and Turkiye can reach an agreement that suspends the Russian-Turkish S-400 system.

The Trump team has requested a legal and technical analysis on how to avoid Turkiye being deemed in violation of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Bloomberg previously reported that the U.S. had agreed to extend a waiver allowing Turkiye to purchase Russian natural gas until next May.

These US considerations come after the UK offered Turkiye an offer to purchase 40 Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets last month.

In 2019, the US suspended Turkiye's participation in the F-35 program after its purchase of the Russian S-400 mobile missile system. 

The U.S. cited espionage concerns related to the Kremlin-operated system being in close proximity to US technology like the F-35, stating that this compromised the fighter jet's security.

In turn, Turkiye has repeatedly asserted that there is no incompatibility between the S-400 system and the F-35 and has proposed establishing a committee to investigate the issue.

Ankara also insists that it has fulfilled its obligations to the F-35 program and that this suspension violates agreements.

Last year, Congress approved the $23 billion sale of 40 F-16s and upgrade kits for 79 of its existing fleet to Turkiye, but negotiations are still ongoing between the Turkish Ministry of Defense and Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the aircraft.

Turkish Influence

CNN recently revealed that Trump is considering adding Turkiye to the list of countries he is scheduled to visit during his Middle East tour next month, which also includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

According to a senior White House source, Trump discussed a possible visit to Turkiye during a recent phone call with his counterpart, Erdogan.

If the visit to Turkiye is included in Trump's Middle East tour, it would be the first visit by a US president to Ankara since 2009.

Days ago, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also spoke about a possible visit by Erdogan to the U.S. next June.

In a related development, the US President recently praised his relationship with the Turkish President during a briefing to reporters at the White House in the presence of the Israeli Prime Minister.

Amid growing fears of a military clash between “Israel” and Turkiye in Syria, Trump offered Netanyahu to mediate with Erdogan to resolve their differences.

Trump told Netanyahu at the White House that his relationship with Erdogan was very good and that he could contribute to negotiations between the two sides.

He noted that during a phone call, he congratulated Erdogan on his control of Syria, while the latter attempted to deny it.

Trump also told Netanyahu, using his first name in a diminutive, “Bibi, if you have a problem with Turkiye, I really believe I can solve it as long as you're rational. You have to be rational.”

This American position carried clear implications, as it redefined the boundaries of influence in the Syrian arena and effectively acknowledged Turkiye's growing role there, dealing a slap in the face to Netanyahu and curbing his ambitions to transform Syria into an arena of absolute Israeli influence.

Only days after Trump's statements regarding mediation, signs of actual action to prevent a ground escalation between Ankara and Tel Aviv inside Syria began to emerge.

On April 9, the first unannounced technical meeting between Turkish and Israeli officials was held in Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, to discuss ways to establish a military coordination mechanism to prevent direct clashes between the two sides' forces on Syrian soil.

Dubious Praise

Turkish and international media have recently been preoccupied with President Trump's dubious praise of his counterpart, Erdogan. 

However, Turkish officials have been cautious, limiting themselves to talking about Ankara's growing influence in the Middle East.

According to what CNN Turk reported, citing official sources, the matter relates to the bases Turkiye intends to establish in Syria, which were a direct cause of Israeli attacks on several airports in central Syria.

According to the assessment of Gülru Gezer, the former Turkish consul general in Los Angeles, and researcher Tolga Sakman of Kocaeli University, in the Milliyet newspaper, Trump's declaration of admiration for Erdogan comes in the context of US attempts to improve relations between Turkiye and Israel in preparation for any war against Iran.

Dr. Sakman explained that the US strategy is to bring Turkiye to the table for cooperation on various issues, especially in the event of the withdrawal of US forces from Syria or Europe.

On his part, Akif Beki wrote that the devil sometimes approaches from the right side to deceive, and Trump's praise of Erdogan carries such a danger. 

“Trump appears as if he is a friend, wants our well-being, but Ankara also knows that his intentions are satanic, not divine,” he added.

“Therefore, we can assume that President Erdogan is not only pleased but also disturbed by Trump's malicious praise,” he said.

The second trap Trump set amid his praise is even worse than the first. As an example of how to solve their problems, he cited the return of Pastor Andrew Brunson from his imprisonment in Türkiye and his threats to destroy the Turkish economy, according to Beki.

When Trump first assumed the US presidency, he really disliked Turkish President Erdogan and threatened to impose economic sanctions on Ankara if it did not release the imprisoned American Pastor.

In October 2019, Trump sent a letter to Erdogan urging him to negotiate with SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, saying, “I don't want to destroy the Turkish economy. I've solved some problems for you, so don't mess things up.”

In the last six years, Turkiye has taken a financial beating, with the lira losing considerable value. 

In March 2007, one US dollar was worth around 1.30 Turkish lira, while in October 2019 it was worth 5.79, and today it is worth 38.06 lira.

Although Trump may have indeed damaged the Turkish economy with previous sanctions, the two leaders seem to get along better today than they have in the past.