Pezeshkian and Araghchi's Gulf Visit: What is Its Purpose Amid Israeli Escalation?

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Amid Iran’s anticipation of an Israeli response to a missile attack, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi toured the Gulf, visiting Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Araghchi’s goal is to enhance bilateral cooperation, curb aggression towards Lebanon and Palestine, and foster regional stability and security.

On September 31, 2024, Iran unleashed around 200 ballistic missiles targeting “Israel”, a direct response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s political bureau. 

In retaliation, “Tel Aviv” has promised a "lethal, precise, and especially surprising” attack according to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Araghchi’s Gulf visit raises pressing questions about its potential to temper the expected Israeli counterstrike. 

Will Tehran be willing to make concessions to Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, over issues such as Yemen? Or will it insist on achieving its aims through a strategy of direct threats?

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Iranian Warnings

Abbas Araghchi began his Gulf tour on October 8, shortly after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Doha on October 2.

As reported by the American network NBC News on October 11, Pezeshkian and his foreign minister urged Gulf states to leverage their influence with Washington, calling on the U.S. to encourage “Israel” to temper its response to Iran.

During his visit to Doha, where he met Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Pezeshkian issued a stark warning of a "stronger and more severe" retaliation should “Israel” respond to Iranian missile attack, asserting that while Iran seeks peace and stability, it is being compelled to react by Israeli actions.

On the same day, Pezeshkian and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met in the Qatari capital. 

Pezeshkian expressed satisfaction with the growing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, though the specifics of their discussions remained undisclosed.

The American network further revealed that Iran cautioned its Gulf neighbors against aiding “Israel” in any potential military action during the visits by Pezeshkian and Araghchi. 

Unnamed diplomats from the Gulf indicated that Iran, preparing for a retaliatory strike, is urging Arab nations to deny “Israel” access to their airspace.

The Guardian remarked, "Israel vows to retaliate after Iran launches an unprecedented missile attack, which has led Tehran to warn that any assistance to Israel could escalate tensions into war.”

However, another diplomat clarified that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is keen to avoid becoming embroiled in the crossfire, focusing instead on de-escalation, adding that the prospect of any Arab state allowing Israeli use of its airspace for an attack on Iran appears highly unlikely. 

The diplomats noted that Pezeshkian and Araghchi are striving to garner support from their Gulf neighbors, seeking to persuade them to utilize their influence in Washington to moderate Israeli aggression.

In a related development, Reuters reported on October 11 that two Iranian figures—a senior official and a diplomat—warned Saudi Arabia during meetings that it could not guarantee the safety of its oil facilities if “Israel” were to receive assistance in executing an attack.

The Iranian diplomat emphasized that Tehran has communicated a clear message to Riyadh: allies of the Islamic Republic in countries such as Iraq and Yemen could respond if “Israel” gains any regional support against Iran.

Before heading to Saudi Arabia, Araghchi announced Iran’s ambition to form “a collective movement from the countries of the region[...] to stop the brutal attacks in Lebanon.”

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‘Gulf Opportunity’

In examining the motivations behind Abbas Araghchi's Gulf tour, Iraqi political analyst Imadaldin al-Jubouri suggested that Iran is seeking to mitigate the potential impact of an Israeli strike on its territory.

Speaking to El-Estiklal, al-Jubouri noted that “Araghchi is particularly looking for Saudi intervention as a mediator to temper the anticipated Israeli response, given that the roots of regional tensions can be traced back to Iranian expansion in Arab nations, a phenomenon that has been enabled by successive U.S. approvals.”

He added, “Following Araghchi’s visit, no Iranian guarantees have emerged publicly in exchange for mediation; however, the possible quid pro quo may involve a scaling back of Iran's ambitions in Yemen or reducing the Houthis' strength, particularly in relation to Saudi Arabia or in the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Regarding Qatar, al-Jubouri pointed out that “it has played a significant role in the crisis even before Saudi involvement, particularly concerning the assault on Gaza and its mediations have often yielded positive outcomes, given its historical ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is a central figure in the Gaza Strip.”

Al-Jubouri posed a compelling question, “Can Iran escape the difficult situation it has created for itself?” He further noted, “It is likely that some form of assurances and commitments have been made to the Gulf states. Yet, whatever they may be, the current Iranian regime is not trustworthy.”

Citing the assassinations of Haniyeh and Nasrallah as evidence, he noted that these events did not occur in a vacuum, particularly in light of ongoing discussions about Iranian Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani and his alleged espionage activities for “Israel”.

On October 10, Middle East Eye reported that Qaani is currently detained and under guard, being interrogated as Iran investigates significant security breaches linked to the assassinations of Nasrallah and Haniyeh.

According to al-Jubouri, Gulf states will seize this opportunity to apply pressure on Iran, especially following Araghchi’s meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

As much as mediation could benefit Tehran, the Gulf states will also play their role in this framework for the greater good of the Arab region.” 

The analyst further emphasized the crucial role of the Gulf states and the broader Mashreq region (Arab countries located between the Mediterranean Sea and Iran)  in capitalizing on the current pressure on Iran, despite a prevailing consensus regarding the untrustworthiness of the Tehran regime. 

In light of these dynamics, he concluded that “An Israeli strike is inevitable, but the extent and implications remain uncertain. The longer the situation unfolds, the more it will be subject to specific metrics; if certain objectives are achieved for Israel and its U.S. allies, the strikes may not occur at the scale promised by Tel Aviv.

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‘Peace Initiative’

In contrast, Iranian political analyst Emad Abshenas commented on Abbas Araghchi’s Gulf visit, stating that Iran is "extending an olive branch to the countries of the region for the sake of peace and security."

"Araghchi’s visit comes in the context of coordinating an Arab-Iranian peace project concerning Gaza, Lebanon, and the entire region, and aims to achieve a ceasefire," he told the BBC.

Abshenas expressed his belief that regional nations must unify to pressure the United States, the sole entity capable of restraining Israeli aggression.

The political analyst underscored that one of the region's most pressing issues is the fragmentation of viewpoints among its countries. He warned that while there is hope for a diplomatic resolution if consensus is reached, failure to do so could result in a devastating full-scale war.

While Iran does not seek an all-out war, it possesses the military capability to confront both “Israel” and the United States, according to the Abshenas. 

He cautioned that Arab states are mistaken if they believe remaining neutral in this conflict will protect them from the risks of broader engagement.

The Iranian political analyst noted that Iran would target any military bases from which attacks against it are launched and did not rule out the possibility of striking U.S. aircraft at Gulf bases before they even take off. 

He added that the United States and “Israel” are actively working to hinder the development of Iranian-Saudi relations.

However, he believes the new policies being adopted by both nations could pave the way for significant rapprochement.

An Israeli official [...] said an attack is still being planned and that the delay in cabinet action came amid continuing consultations with the Biden administration. The cabinet can be convened by phone for a vote at any time,” as reported by the Washington Post.

In this context, KAN, the Israeli public broadcaster, added that “the cabinet will convene on Thursday evening to vote on authorizing Netanyahu and Gallant to determine Israel’s response to the attack.”