What Are the Reasons Behind the Decline in Population Growth in the Gulf?

Recent Arab and Western studies revealed a decline in the population growth of the Arab Gulf countries, which raised questions about the reasons behind this drop in those oil-producing countries during 2021 compared to 2020.

While the world’s population was on the way to reaching about 8 billion in 2022, recording an eight-fold increase over the past 200 years, things were different for the Gulf states that enjoy political and economic stability compared to many of their neighbors.

 

Growth to Slow

A study issued by the Statistical Center of the Gulf Cooperation Council at the end of December 2022 showed a significant decrease in the population of the six Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain) by one million people in 2021 compared to 2020.

The total population of the Gulf states at the end of 2021 was about 56.4 million, down by one million compared to 2020.

Saudi Arabia’s population growth represents 60.5% of the total population in the Gulf, which is the highest percentage among Gulf states, while Bahrain saw the lowest percentage, 2.7%.

With regard to the decrease in the population growth in 2021 compared to 2020, the study showed that Qatar registered the largest rate of decline (3%), followed by Kuwait (2.7%), then Saudi Arabia (2.6%).

In contrast to the three countries, the Sultanate of Oman and Bahrain recorded an increase in the population by 1% and 2.2%, respectively.

The study confirmed that the total decrease in the population of Saudi Arabia amounted to 902.6 thousand people, the majority of whom are males who are not Saudis.

In Qatar, the population growth decreased by 85.5 thousand people, while in Kuwait, the total population dropped in the same period reaching 119.1 thousand people, most of whom are males who are not citizens of the country.

The study attributed the reasons for this decline to the economic repercussions caused by the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the disruption of business due to the general curfew in that period.

On January 16, 2023, the French National Institute for Demographic Studies issued a report that provided a comprehensive layout of the situation around the world in 2050.

The institute expected that the population of Saudi Arabia would reach 48 million, the UAE 11 million, the Sultanate of Oman 6.3 million, Kuwait 5.2 million, Qatar 3.4 million, and Bahrain 1.8 million.

 

Fundamental Reasons

Regarding the reasons for this decline in population growth in the Gulf countries, Professor of Sociology at the University of Kuwait Mohammad al-Rumaihi said countries in the Gulf in general are trying to pursue a policy of substitution, which made women enter the labor market in large numbers, especially after educating and providing them with opportunities.

He added to the BBC on January 16 that this policy makes people think about late marriage, and thus childbearing has become less, in addition to the increase in divorce cases in the Gulf countries.

Al-Rumaihi also believed that the decline in the population growth in the Gulf is related to the level of income, and this is what is happening in America, which is witnessing a rise in the standard of living, but there is a lack of population growth.

Regarding the decrease in the number of foreigners in the Gulf countries, al-Rumaihi said the drop in the labor force was expected due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic; therefore the number of expatriate workers was expected to decrease partially.

The growth related to expatriate labor will return to normal because there are huge projects that attract engineers and others, according to al-Rumaihi.

As for the local level, he does not think that the Gulf will witness a significant increase due to the cultural and economic factors that the countries are going through, as the professor expected.

For his part, Saudi economist Saleh Al-Shalhoub told the Independent Arabia newspaper on January 11 that “there are a number of factors that have contributed to changing work environments in the Arab Gulf countries in particular and the world’s countries in general.”

Al-Shalhoub explained that “the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020 led all countries of the world to follow many precautionary measures, including transforming work environments into the digital world through remote work.”

He added that this “coincided with the tendency to use electronic means in business with the layoff of a number of jobs, especially those that do not require specific skills.”

The Saudi expert believed that “the high rate of localization of jobs in those countries plays an important role in dispensing foreign workers, in addition to combating illegal immigration, which greatly contributed to the exit of a large number of non-citizens, working under this system, from the country.”

Al-Shalhoub stressed that “in contrast to the decrease in the number of non-citizens of the Gulf countries in the year following the spread of the Corona pandemic, an increase in the population growth was registered, as well as a decrease in unemployment rates among citizens, all of which are positive things for the six Gulf countries.”

The economist pointed out that “it is noticeable that the economies of the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, have been able to largely overcome the economic repercussions of Covid-19, and the growth is expected to continue in the following years.”

 

Continuous Decline

Returning to the study of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the period between 2017 and 2021 witnessed a discrepancy in growth and decline rates between citizens of those countries and non-citizens.

While it witnessed an increase in the number of citizens (6.9%), a decrease was recorded in the number of non-citizens residing in those countries (1.5%).

The number of male citizens increased by 6.7% in the same period, while the rate of non-citizen males decreased by 4.5%.

As for female citizens, the period witnessed an increase in the percentage among them that amounted to 7.1%, and an increase in the number of non-citizens by 5.6%.

In 2021, the largest population decline in the Gulf was for Dubai, as it witnessed the migration of hundreds of thousands of expatriate workers, whether Arabs or foreigners.

In mid-February 2021, Standard & Poor’s Global for credit rating said that the population of the GCC countries decreased by about 4% during 2020.

It is unlikely that the total population will return to the 2019 level before 2023, especially as some of these countries continue to implement the policy of expelling expatriate workers for economic reasons.

On July 21, 2021, a report issued by the UAE Federal Center for Competitiveness and Statistics showed that “the population of the UAE decreased to 9.28 million people by the end of 2020, a decline of 2.3% compared to 2019.”

Qatar recorded a relative decrease in its population during February 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. The population reached about 2.6 million people.

In Kuwait, the population census during 2020 witnessed the highest annual decline rate in nearly 30 years, as the number of expatriates declined sharply.

This drop came as a result of reducing the number of expatriates after Covid-19, and the continued application of job localization policies, which led companies and government institutions to lay off a large number of employees.

In The Sultanate of Oman, the number of expatriates decreased by about 12% in 2021, with the government implementing the “Oman-ization” policy to replace expatriate workers, and it is expected that the decline will continue with the government’s keenness to provide job opportunities for citizens, especially with the outbreak of demonstrations during July 2021.

Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, witnessed a population contraction of 2.8% in 2020.

2.24 million foreign employees from the Saudi private sector left their jobs within 51 months, from the beginning of 2017 until the end of the first quarter of 2021.

The number of foreign employees in the Kingdom decreased to 6.25 million at the end of the first quarter of 2021, compared to 8.49 million at the end of 2016, a decline of 26.4%.