From MAGA to a Split: Why Are Conservatives Turning Against Trump and Who Is Leading Them?

Opponents of President Donald Trump, joined by Republicans who believe the party has strayed from its “America First” principles, have moved beyond public criticism and internal feuding to pursue something far more ambitious: the creation of a new political alternative.

Prominent conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, former Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, and other conservative figures have announced plans to establish a third party to challenge the Republican and Democratic parties' longstanding dominance of American politics.

The effort carries particular weight because it is being led by figures who, until recently, ranked among Trump's most loyal allies. They now argue that his administration has drifted away from the core tenets of the MAGA movement, especially through what they see as excessive involvement in foreign wars and overseas conflicts that drain public resources instead of improving Americans' standard of living at home.

According to the group's supporters, Trump's policies have abandoned the movement's original priorities by expanding U.S. engagement abroad while sidelining domestic goals such as reducing government spending, curbing the national debt, and strengthening the economy for ordinary Americans.

Still, talk of launching a third party from within Trump's political camp is nothing new. Billionaire Elon Musk—once one of the largest financial backers of Trump's presidential campaign—previously floated the idea of creating a new political movement in protest of the administration's policies before eventually backing away as the proposal faded.

The Third-Party Push

Throughout President Donald Trump's second term, several former Republican officials and anti-Trump conservatives have attempted to launch breakaway political movements. None, however, has come close to emerging as a credible alternative to the Republican Party.

Elon Musk was the first to publicly float the idea of creating a third party to challenge both Republicans and Democrats. The proposal came after his public fallout with Trump over the administration's sweeping tax-and-spending package, dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."

On June 30, 2025, Musk vowed that if the legislation became law, he would launch the America Party, positioning it as a centrist alternative capable of challenging Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

After Trump signed the bill into law, Musk formally announced the party's creation on July 5, 2025. His strategy centered on winning a small number of congressional seats—enough to hold the balance of power on major legislation.

The project, however, quickly lost momentum. The party never completed the national registration process, failed to build an effective organizational structure, and did not contest any elections.

By August 2025, Musk had shelved the initiative, choosing instead to focus on his business ventures and back Republican candidates whose views aligned with his own rather than continue building a new political party.

As conservative opposition to deeper U.S. involvement in the U.S.-Israeli War on Iran intensified—and frustration with the Republican Party spread among its own ranks—the idea of a third party resurfaced. This time, however, it was championed by figures with far greater influence within the conservative movement, most notably political commentator Tucker Carlson and former Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Before unveiling their initiative, both Carlson and Greene announced that they were withdrawing their support for the Republican Party, accusing its leadership of "betraying the American people."

Writing on X, Greene said Carlson was not the only one abandoning the Republican Party, arguing that many conservatives could no longer support a party that, in her words, betrays its voters and its country.

On July 2, 2026, Carlson formally announced his intention to help establish a third political party in the United States, predicting that it would attract a broad coalition of disillusioned conservatives who believe the Republican Party has abandoned domestic priorities in favor of foreign wars and overseas conflicts.

In an interview with the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR), Carlson said, “I’m going to help build a third party. There should be a good-faith effort to figure out what benefits the country,” adding that the first priority of the U.S. government should be the well-being of its own people.

He also asked how people can support a party that isn't loyal to the United States.

Carlson went on to criticize Trump directly, saying that what he really cares about is war and funding. He further said that pro-”Israel” donors pressured Trump to launch a war on Iran.

On these two issues—war and funding for “Israel”—the two parties are completely united, according to Carlson.

“That’s not a democracy. That’s a one-party state posing as a democracy, and it needs to be broken, and there’s going to be a third party, and I’m going to do everything I can to bring that about,” he concluded.

Gaza and Iran Deepen the Rift

Carlson's remarks reflect his increasingly sharp criticism of the Trump administration's policies toward Iran and the Israeli Occupation. He has previously argued that President Trump had become “a hostage” to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accusing him of trying to “play God” in the Middle East.

Former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has likewise said she is engaged in serious discussions about launching a new political party as her split with the Republican establishment deepens.

In an interview with broadcaster Piers Morgan, Greene said the proposed party would be centered on American interests and would seek to attract voters from both the right and the left outside the Republican and Democratic parties. She acknowledged, however, that building a viable third party would require years of work and could not be accomplished in a single election cycle.

Greene's comments followed a public break with Trump, who withdrew his endorsement of her and launched a series of personal attacks after she criticized his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case and other issues she viewed as central to the America First agenda.

Among the main reasons Carlson and Greene have turned against Trump—and begun advocating for a third party—are the war on Gaza and what they see as the growing influence of the pro-”Israel” lobby within both the Trump administration and the Republican Party.

According to a USA Today report published on July 2, 2026, Carlson's criticism of Trump intensified after the president ordered airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, “a military campaign” that later escalated into a months-long war.

The newspaper also noted that Carlson has repeatedly condemned “Israel's military campaign” in Gaza, which began after Operation al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023.

During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump pledged to keep the United States out of what he described as "endless wars."

In April 2026, Trump lashed out at Carlson and several other influential figures within the MAGA movement—including Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones—after they criticized his decision to wage war on Iran, dismissing them as "losers."

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the MAGA movement stands with him, not with reckless fools like Tucker Carlson, who never even finished college.

Can a Third Party Succeed?

Throughout American political history, most attempts to establish third parties have run into legal, financial, and electoral barriers that prevented them from breaking the dominance of the two major parties or triggering a meaningful split within the Republican Party.

Third parties in the United States have long struggled under a winner-take-all electoral system, as well as strict state laws governing ballot access for candidates.

Frustration with the two-party system has reached record levels. A Gallup poll conducted on October 20, 2025, found that 62 percent of Americans believed a new major political party was needed, yet only 15 percent said they would consider voting for a third-party candidate.

Despite these obstacles, recent years have seen several high-profile attempts to challenge the two-party monopoly, led by influential figures seeking to capitalize on growing voter dissatisfaction.

American political analysts suggest the current effort may be different—not only because it is being driven by figures with broad media followings and strong influence within conservative circles, but also because it taps into rising frustration among parts of the MAGA base, which accuses Trump of abandoning the America First agenda in favor of foreign policy commitments and deeper U.S. involvement in global crises.

That dynamic gives the initiative a rare opportunity to evolve from a political protest movement into a serious challenge within the conservative movement, even if building a party capable of competing with Republicans and Democrats remains an enormous challenge.

A study by Georgetown University (GU) political scientist Hans Noel argues that creating a successful third party in the United States is not impossible, but structural barriers make it extremely difficult for any new party to compete with the Republican and Democratic parties.

The study, published by GU on July 17, 2025, identified five major obstacles.

The first is the U.S. electoral system, where a single candidate wins each district. This structure pushes voters and politicians toward the two major parties because votes for third parties often split the electorate without translating into seats—a phenomenon known in political science as Duverger’s Law.

Duverger’s Law, developed by French political scientist Maurice Duverger, argues that single-member districts with plurality voting systems tend to produce two-party systems because voters often avoid supporting smaller parties out of fear that their votes will be wasted.

The second obstacle is the role of primary elections within the two major parties. Primaries allow dissatisfied factions to reshape a party from within rather than create a new one, enabling Republicans and Democrats to absorb major ideological shifts over time.

The third challenge is the lack of a unified electoral base. While many Americans express support for a third option, they often disagree over what that alternative should represent or what policies it should pursue, causing support to decline once specific positions are introduced.

The fourth obstacle is organizational and financial. Money alone—even from a billionaire founder—is not enough. A successful party must build a nationwide political structure, recruit volunteers and candidates, and secure ballot access across multiple states, tasks that remain far easier for established parties.

The fifth and most significant barrier is history itself. Third parties have rarely achieved a breakthrough. Even when independent candidate Ross Perot won nearly 20 percent of the popular vote in the 1992 presidential election, he failed to win any Electoral College votes. His campaign influenced the competition between the two major parties but did not replace either one.

For that reason, the study concludes that the chances of a third party breaking the Republican-Democratic duopoly remain extremely limited under the current American political system.

Instead, it argues that the more realistic path for those seeking political change is to work from within the existing parties through primary elections, where activists and movements have historically had greater success reshaping party leadership and policy than through attempts to build entirely new parties.