Democratic Gamble: What Happens after Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race?

US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race just four months before the November 5 elections raised fears of deepening divisions within the ranks of the Democratic Party and a decline in its candidate's chances of winning over former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton were also quick to support Harris, and pledged their support for the Vice President, while former President Barack Obama warned of unknown prospects in the coming days.

In turn, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee Jaime Harrison confirmed that the party will undertake a transparent and orderly process to select a new candidate who can defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming November elections.

Biden Withdraws

On July 21, US President Joe Biden took the decision to drop out of the US elections, raising questions about what surprises the coming period will bring in the United States.

The NBC report indicated that Biden's performance in the June 27 debate against Trump was the most disastrous in modern American political history.

Biden has succumbed to pressure from within his party as the number of lawmakers calling on him to step down has grown over the past few days, and major donors have cut off funds from his campaign and the party.

About 30 Democratic legislators had expressed their fears that Biden would lose the elections because he lacked the mental and physical abilities that would qualify him to win the elections and remain in power for another four years.

Immediately, Biden announced his support for the nomination of his deputy, Kamala Harris, and said that she was his preferred choice to represent the party in the presidential race against Trump.

However, Biden's recommendation does not guarantee that Harris will win the party's nomination, and a number of prominent Democrats may challenge her nomination before the national convention is held in Chicago, next August 19, which will open the door to voting rounds that may witness fierce competition.

At a time when top Democrats are calling for unification, Harris presents herself as the most suitable alternative to succeed Biden at the head of the Democratic ticket.

However, some people fear that the Vice President's low popularity levels and her inability to win against Trump make the race open to more than one option.

It is noteworthy that there are other names proposed as alternatives to Biden, including: Governors of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Andy Beshear, and Illinois JB Pritzker. They are all Biden supporters and worked to help him run for a new term.

In order to win the party's nomination, a candidate needs to obtain a majority, that is, win more votes than all other candidates combined.

If no one can achieve this, the party will resort to what is known as a conference of moderators, and it may take several rounds of voting for a person to obtain a majority and become the nominee.

The last moderators' convention was held in 1952, when Democrats failed to nominate a nominee.

However, observers believe that donor money will likely determine the Democrats' choice.

Biden's campaign funds amounted to about $240 million at the end of June, which includes funds from the Democratic National Committee and committees allied with the campaign, according to a campaign announcement days ago.

In contrast, the Biden and Harris campaign had raised $91 million through the end of June, according to the latest data available from the Federal Election Commission.

Since the campaign bears the names of both, that means Harris can keep the money, otherwise the funds would go to the Democratic National Committee, which could allocate the funds to a new candidate.

Democratic Gamble

The Democratic Party will be facing a historic gamble if it turns to Kamala Harris to run for the presidency, betting on the ability of the dark-skinned vice president to overcome racism, sexism, and her political mistakes to defeat Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Throughout the history of democracy in the U.S., which goes back more than two centuries, Americans have elected only one black president and have never elected a black woman, which makes even some black voters wonder whether Harris is able to overcome the most difficult ceiling in American politics.

Both Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and California Governor Gavin Newsom called on Democrats to unite behind Harris.

But the leaders of the Democratic Party and its leaders have not yet announced their support for Harris, most notably former President Barack Obama, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

The fact that the party leaders did not announce their support for Harris does not necessarily mean that they reject her candidacy, but it may come as a result of waiting for an agreement on a mechanism to choose the next candidate, in order to avoid division and spreading more chaos in the party.

If she wins the Democratic nomination, Harris will face other major challenges, as she will only have about three months to finish her campaign and unite the party and donors behind her.

In a hypothetical competition, a poll conducted by Reuters-Ipsos on July 15 and 16 showed that Trump and Harris were tied, each receiving the support of 44% of voters.

A recent poll also showed that Harris would achieve better results than Biden against Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that could decide the elections.

On her part, Harris said: “I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party and unite our nation to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project 2025 agenda.”

Trump Campaign

Joe Biden's withdrawal from the US presidential election race will also affect Trump's campaign, which he considers his favorite Democratic target.

For months, Trump and his allies have focused on concerns about the 81-year-old outgoing president's health, sharing videos of every stutter, error, and stumble in his remarks.

The Republican candidate said on his social network, Truth Social, shortly after the withdrawal was announced: “Joe Biden was not qualified to be a presidential candidate, and certainly not suitable to serve.”

The Trump campaign recently sought to link Harris to the Biden administration's mistakes, saying Harris is complicit in everything that happened under the Biden administration, especially when it came to addressing the issue of illegal immigration.

Voters have shown in polls for months that they want to be represented by a younger candidate. 

Therefore, the choice of a young Democratic candidate, from a key state, could represent a threat to the Republican candidate, who will turn 82 at the end of a possible second term.

Harris' candidacy is also likely to pose a risk because she may attract more female voters, who historically vote more than men and represent a weakness for the Republican Party.

Her nomination would also give Democrats an opportunity to redefine the presidential campaign as a clash between two contradictory cultures.

In turn, Washington-based activist Omar Taha explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “Joe Biden was very late in his decision to withdraw from the race for the White House, which can be said to be too late for his party to adapt to the new reality.”

“Biden's advisers thought they could deceive the public. The American people deserved to know the truth about their president's health, and they were denied that. Now Biden's legacy and the future of the Democratic Party are at stake,” he added.

On her part, journalist Siba Madwar said in a statement to Al-Estiklal that Biden’s withdrawal is a loss for Trump, noting that Harris has a relatively strong chance of winning for several reasons.

Among these reasons is that the anti-Trump voter will vote for her, in addition to the fact that the majority of voters are women who believe that Harris represents them and preserves their rights, according to Madwar.

Ms. Madwar also pointed out that “the youth group may see in Harris a candidate closer to their age and cultural group, in addition to the fact that black Americans will see her as a face that represents everyone.”