Chinese Newspaper: Russia May Soon Seek Regime Change in Armenia

The "Asia Times" newspaper reported that Russia will make changes at the top of the pyramid of power in Armenia if Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, continues to achieve victories on the ground in the Caucasus conflict.

The Chinese newspaper pointed out that Russia's options in the Karabakh war are running out, saying: "Although the radar jamming system, known as Krasukha-4, enabled Moscow to shoot down Turkish-made Bayraktar drones, this does not erase the fact Russia is losing to Turkey in a proxy conflict scene.

Perhaps this explains the Russians’ attack on the training camp of the Turkish-backed Syrian forces in Idlib on October 25, killing at least 56 people and wounding dozens, as it became clear that Russia wanted to send a strong message to the Turks who engender troubles for Mosco in Syria, Libya, Armenia and elsewhere.

The report states that "if the Azerbaijani forces succeed in capturing the town of Lachin (which has a vital road linking Armenia with the region), the road to the separatist capital of Karabakh, Stepanakert, will be closed. If Stepanakert is isolated, the Armenian forces will be besieged without any possibility to supply them with weapons. Therefore, without hope of getting reinforcements and military supplies."

Armenian Despair

For this reason, desperate Armenians sacked their commander of the border forces, Vaginak Sarkissian, after the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan demanded it with the increasing losses of Armenia in the battle. The Armenian Major-General Hovhannes Karumyan, head of the counterintelligence department of the National Security Service, was also sacked.

On October 8, Pashinyan attacked the head of Armenian intelligence, Argishti Kyarmyan, and expelled him as well. Meanwhile, the commander of the Karabakh Defense Forces was seriously injured on 26 October, an incident that was a major setback for Armenia.

It is not entirely clear whether the surrender of Stepanakert, if it happens, would lead to the complete collapse of the territory controlled by Armenia. However, it is possible that the Armenians living there, who constitute the majority of the population of about 150,000, will be expelled from these lands to the state of Armenia.

All these events point to a strong possibility of regime change in Armenia, as this issue has become a topic of discussion in talk shows, media and the Russian press.

On the ground, Russia has two main bases in Armenia that host ground forces, attack helicopters and MiG-29s.

These fighters have not been used in the war so far, because as long as Turkish F-16 fighters are present in Azerbaijan, Russia will not involve its forces in this conflict unless it has an assured chance of success against Turkish aircraft and Azerbaijani air defenses. Therefore, it may not directly take part of the conflict to avoid losing face. 

Today, there are about 15 Russian MiG-29 aircraft in Armenia with the aim of protecting the capital, Yerevan. MiGs and attack helicopters are located in Gyumri (Armenia), near the Armenian-Turkish border, leaving the Russian base vulnerable to direct attacks by Turkey if the war gets out of hand.

It is known that Turkey has so far deployed six F-16s in Azerbaijan, which were spotted at the end of October in photographs taken from a US commercial satellite at the Azerbaijani Gabala Air Base. The Armenian government has published pictures of four of these fighters.

Tough Situation

Gabala Air Base was once home to a Russian long-range radar station before it was closed down in 2012. Gabala is located in the north-central part of Azerbaijan, not far from the Russian border.

Therefore, Russia now stands in a difficult position, especially after President Vladimir Putin's initiative to gain a political foothold in the crisis backfired, as Ankara has today become a greater enemy to Moscow than the United States or NATO, according to the report.

The report continues: "The bottom line is that Armenia will have to make major concessions to Azerbaijan or fight an endless losing war that will cement the Turks' position in Azerbaijan in the long run, which will have significant negative repercussions for Russia."

In a related context, the report noted that Azerbaijan, a relatively moderate Islamic country, is also a major potential pressure point on Tehran not only because of its common border with Iran but also because there are more Azerbaijanis in this country than Azerbaijan itself.

The newspaper stated that in the case of Turkey remaining in Azerbaijan for a long period, the latter will become “Turkish” (part of Turkey), and thus Azerbaijan could serve as a starting point for destabilizing the Caucasus and strengthening separatist Islamic movements within the Russian territory.

In order for Russia to have any influence under an Azerbaijani victory scenario, it will have to persuade the Armenian government to make a deal, as only option left. While the current Armenian prime minister is almost certainly not ready to make any concessions, it is possible that he will be sacked by Russia.

While most of the war did not come on Armenian territory, this scenario cannot be ruled out if the situation continues to deteriorate. Therefore, regime change in Armenia is increasingly likely in the near term.