After the Ceasefire in Gaza: How Are ‘Israel’ and the U.S. Responding to the ‘Houthi Threat’?

Eyes turn to Yemen as the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts settle, leaving the future of this troubling front, which has kept “Israel” on edge for months, uncertain.

Under the banner of “Solidarity with Palestinians,” the Houthi group launched attacks on “Israel,” also targeting ships supporting the Israeli Occupation in the Red Sea.

In response, “Israel,” the U.S., and their Western allies launched strikes against Houthi-controlled Yemen, including the strategic port of Hodeidah and Sana’a Airport, following the attacks on vessels in international waters.

The Israeli aggression on Gaza, which began on October 7, 2023, and lasted 471 days, saw the Houthis, Hezbollah, and various Iraqi militias joining the war on the Strip against “Israel” as part of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.”

A Cautious Calm

Amid a ceasefire in Gaza in January 2025, the Houthis warned of continuing to target occupied Palestinian territories if “Israel” fails to uphold the agreement.

The group also threatened to resume attacks on ships linked to “Israel,” the U.S., and the U.K. if these countries target Yemen.

The Sana’a-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), which liaises between Houthi forces and commercial shipping operators stated on January 20 that Houthi attacks would be limited to commercial vessels linked to “Israel” following the Gaza ceasefire.

The center, which connects the Houthis to shipping companies, further added that if the U.S., U.K., or “Israel” resumed strikes on Yemen, they would retaliate by targeting vessels of these countries.

On January 20, the Houthis warned “hostile forces in the Red Sea” of the consequences of any aggression against Yemen during the Gaza ceasefire, which is set to last 42 days in its first phase.

“We will continue to monitor developments in Palestine during the three days prior to the entry into force of the Gaza agreement. If the Israeli massacres continue, we will continue our operations,” Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech.

“At any stage in which the aggression retreats from the agreement, we will be ready to provide military support to our Palestinian brothers,” he added.

“Since November 2023, we have conducted 1,255 operations involving ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles, drones and naval vessels.”

“We will continue monitoring the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Any Israeli violations, massacres, or sieges will be met with immediate military support for the Palestinian people.”

The Hebrew Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), in a report published on January 13, 2025, suggested that Israeli strikes on the Houthis would persist even if Gaza's situation calms.

The institute noted that the Houthi challenge compels Israel to acknowledge the operational distance and challenges, indicating that there is no "decisive blow" against them and that the response should be a joint effort rather than solely Israel’s.

It also emphasized the need to build intelligence capabilities and increase presence in the Red Sea region to facilitate ongoing operations against the group.

‘Iranian Tool’

Yemeni political writer and analyst, Abdul Baqi Shamsan, stated that “the Houthis are not an entity independent from the Iranian axis to impose a new equation in the region, as they are part of Iran's broader strategy, and this group plays roles within the axis.”

“The Houthis decided to take the initiative and play a larger role after Hezbollah's targeting and head of the Syrian regime Bashar al-Assad's flight to Russia,” he told Al-Estiklal.

“The shift in Iran's influence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, with strict control over militia movements, has pushed the Houthis to escalate.”

“The Houthi group poses a threat to the existence of a large neighboring state, Saudi Arabia, in addition to other Gulf countries,” Shamsan added.

“The control of both the Red Sea and Arabian Sea by the Houthis also has significant impact, and this escalation is part of Iran's negotiations with the U.S. and Europe over the nuclear issue and regional influence.”

According to the analyst, the Houthis cannot halt the fighting for several reasons, including their claim that their project derives legitimacy from the divine right of a lineage they assert belongs to the Hashemite family.

Thus, they believe this lineage has the “right to rule Yemenis, and their battles should continue until they impose a new reality.”

“The Houthis refuse to join national dialogue, as it centers on citizenship, political parties, and the state's control over weapons.”

This is compounded by the presence of a weak legitimate government and another faction supported by the UAE—the Southern Transitional Council—calling for the secession of South Yemen.

“Thus, the legitimacy's position is weak, as it cannot speak for all of Yemen, a gap that Iran and the Houthis are well aware of,” said Shamsan.

“The Houthis will create justifications to continue skirmishes and disrupt international shipping, as part of managing the strategic battle within the Iranian axis.”

He emphasized that “the Houthis cannot operate independently of Iran’s decisions, especially after the targeting of Hezbollah and the regime change in Syria. If they try to break away from Iran, they would be vulnerable and swiftly defeated.”

“Lifting the siege on the Houthis would prolong their survival, but this won't happen—they only persist through the power of arms.”

Shamsan predicted that the Houthis would also be eliminated by force, adding, “The Yemeni issue has regional and international dimensions and is related to the Abrahamic project [the normalization agreements].”

“The Houthis would be the next target after Lebanon and Syria; President Donald Trump might re-designate the militia as a terrorist group or target them directly, as the region is heading toward major transformations.”

New Equation

In this context, Yemeni political analyst Abdul Qader Al-Khali believes that “despite the ceasefire announcement in Gaza, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden may remain a focal point for ongoing Houthi operations, particularly against vessels linked to Israel or the United States.”

Al-Khali, quoted by Barran Press on January 19, said, “These attacks represent a strategic leverage for the Houthis, and they are unlikely to give it up easily unless comprehensive settlements that meet their interests are achieved.”

Al-Khali mentioned that the Houthi group had been “receiving thousands of dollars in fees for allowing the passage of certain commercial ships through the Red Sea without attacking them,” exploiting the war in Gaza as an economic resource.

Therefore, “the escalation in the region will remain tied to the presence of direct threats to the Iranian axis to which the Houthis belong.”

“Recent developments could be used by Israel and the United States to justify the continuation or escalation of military operations against the Houthis,” he added.

On January 10, 2025, Israeli Occupation’s latest strike on Yemen targeted several sites in Sana’a and Hodeidah, coinciding with attacks by the United States and Britain—marking the first triple strike on Yemeni territory in response to Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthis possess military capabilities that must be neutralized, according to the Israeli-American perspective.

“Israel” may use the ceasefire in Gaza to settle scores with the group, as the Yemeni expert suggests.

“The continuation of Houthi operations despite the Gaza ceasefire could weaken the group's position and reduce their chances of making any progress in a political process,” al-Khali concluded.

Regarding the Houthis' plans following the Gaza war, Iraqi security expert Abdul Karim Khalaf, who is close to what is known as the “ Axis of Resistance” stated that “the Houthis have nothing to lose and possess significant capabilities across vast lands, especially after missile manufacturing industries were established in Yemen.”

“After the war in Gaza ends, the Houthis will impose conditions for lifting the blockade on Yemen, securing reconstruction, and receiving financial compensation from the countries involved in the war against them, such as Saudi Arabia,” he said in an interview on January 14.

Khalaf pointed out that “the Houthis have become a major force that must be taken seriously; Egypt alone is currently losing $6 billion annually, while Israel's losses from Houthi strikes and the closure of the Eilat port amount to approximately $15 billion.”

“The Houthis have managed to create a strong equation in the Red and Arabian Seas and along the route toward South Africa, which is why Iran may move to provide greater support to the group to achieve goals it cannot accomplish on its own.”