Clashes With America and Russia: Can Haftar Succeed in Passing the Rule of Libya to His Sons?

Following the meeting of General Khalifa Haftar with CIA Director William Burns in eastern Libya on January 13, 2023, there were claims that Haftar proposed a solution to the Libyan crisis by withdrawing his candidacy for the presidential elections in exchange for allowing his sons to succeed him.

On January 18, 2023, the Russian writer, Igor Subbotin, confirmed in an article in the local newspaper, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, that Haftar, 79, is ready to give up his candidacy for the presidency of Libya in favor of one of his sons.

Libyan sources also confirmed to Al-Estiklal that Haftar’s meeting with Burns and with the head of the Libyan Presidential Council, Mohamed al-Menfi, in Cairo on January 9, 2023, revealed his intention to withdraw from politics in favor of one of his sons.

 

Conditional Withdrawal

The sources, who asked not to be identified, confirmed that Haftar feels his reign has almost finished because of his health crisis. He also feels that the Libyans have rejected him and countries used to support his reign have abandoned him, so he seeks to prepare his son, Saddam, to succeed him and take over, although he is also popularly rejected.

The same sources explained that Haftar asked his partners in eastern Libya and the Speaker of the Parliament of Tobruk, Aguila Saleh, and al-Menfi, during his meeting in Cairo, to support his son to run in the upcoming presidential elections instead of him.

The Russian writer, Igor Subbotin, said that the negotiations that took place in Egypt on January 9 revealed Haftar’s lack of interest in running for the presidential elections, which are expected to be organized this year under the supervision of international mediators, which could accelerate the transformation of eastern Libya into a pro-Western party.

The writer explained that some attribute the flexibility shown by Haftar regarding the conditions for launching the electoral process to the deterioration of his health, as well as the pressure exerted on him by the international community.

Subbotin confirmed that it was the health condition that prompted Haftar to demand during the negotiations in Egypt not to put obstacles in the way of the possible candidacy of one of his sons, Saddam or Khaled, in the upcoming presidential elections in return for his withdrawal.

William Burns’ meetings with Haftar and the head of the Libyan government, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, were an indication that the Libyan file had turned into a security issue for Washington.

Talk about Washington’s intention to expel the Russian Wagner forces from Libya as part of the operations to clamp down on Moscow in Ukraine was the main headline in Burns talks with Haftar, according to Libyan sources.

They explained to Al-Estiklal that Haftar is not a stranger to the Americans, as he holds American citizenship and has many properties in America.

In April 2019, Haftar made a phone call to former US President Donald Trump, sparking rumors that Washington would support the general, but relations soured between the two sides soon after.

The sources confirmed that the American interest in Libya came within the framework of the conflict with Russia in Ukraine and the exploitation of the Wagner forces’ transition to the war in Ukraine to erase what was left in Libya and blockade Russian influence in the Mediterranean region.

They explained that part of the American interest in Libya comes within the quest to preserve and increase the flow of Libyan oil as part of the blockade plan on Russian energy sources.

On January 16, the Middle East Monitor reported that Burns had warned Haftar of the dangers of damaging ports and oil fields because the United States is very interested in the need for stability in the oil sector and that exports not be affected.

He also asked Haftar to cooperate with the government of Dbeibeh and enable it to work in eastern Libya to preserve the principle of the unity of executive institutions.

A week after Burns met Haftar and stressed the need to stop dealing with Wagner’s mercenaries, the White House announced on January 20 that Wagner had been classified as an “international criminal organization,” which means that Haftar would also be classified if he continued dealing with it.

Libyan sources confirm that the director of US intelligence refused to attend any of Haftar’s sons, especially his son Saddam, although all indications confirm that Saddam is preparing to succeed his father.

On January 19, the US embassy in Libya revealed another meeting that took place between Haftar, US Chargé d’Affaires Leslie Ordman, and the Deputy Commander of US Air Forces in Africa, General John de Lamontagne.

It said that the meeting was devoted to discussing security coordination, including aviation, and the importance of reuniting the Libyan army under a democratically elected civilian leadership.

It was remarkable that the CIA director visited Egypt later on January 23, 2023, in the presence of Major General Abbas Kamel, head of General Intelligence.

The Egyptian presidential spokesman said that the aim of the visit was to exchange views on developments related to a number of international and regional issues of common concern.

However, Egyptian diplomatic sources indicate that the meeting focused on Libya, ending Haftar’s phenomenon, and warning of the role of Russian Wagner mercenaries in Libya.

 

Russian or American Ally?

Although Haftar is American in passion and nationality, he deepened his relations with Russia and opened the door to its influence in eastern Libya in exchange for his support for the Wagner forces, which played a role in strengthening his attacks on Tripoli in 2019.

Haftar has previously visited Russia several times and met for the first time with Russian President Putin in early June 2019 and asked for Russia’s help in developing and modernizing the weapons system of his army.

However, relations with Russia deteriorated following the defeat of Haftar’s forces by the forces of Tripoli and the West’s pressure on him to expel Russian mercenaries from eastern Libya.

Middle East Eye stated on August 10, 2022, that the Haftar family owns a huge international real estate group in several countries, but the family’s holdings in the United States are the largest.

Documents submitted to the Virginia court to try Haftar and seek compensation indicate that the Haftar family owns at least 17 properties in Virginia only.

The Russians do not trust Haftar despite their alliance, and do not bet on him as a partner. Rather, they consider him “America’s man” in Libya, according to the Washington Institute for the Near East, October 21, 2022.

Because Haftar’s American nationality represented a major obstacle to his political ambitions in Libya and his candidacy for the presidency, the issue of Haftar’s political heir among his sons has become more important.

The Biden administration faces three important files in Libya that make it an inevitable target for the US foreign strategy, the first of which is “terrorism.”

The second is the global energy crisis, especially after the repercussions of the Russian war in Ukraine, where Russia is trying to extend its control over Libyan oil through Wagner, which is spreading near some oil fields, such as the Sharara field.

As for the third file, it is about the Russians themselves and their role in Libya. It does not seem that the Russians will give up this role soon, so the United States needs to adopt a clearer discourse regarding its relations with Libya.

 

Who Will Inherit Haftar?

The deterioration of Haftar’s health in recent years has prompted him to delegate his powers to some of his sons, cousins, and men who owe him absolute loyalty.

The 6 sons of Haftar are: Khaled, Saddam, Uqba, al-Sadiq, al-Muntasir, and Asma. The names of his two sons, Khaled and Saddam, stand out as they are army officers and their father’s most prominent partners in the prominent stations that the general went through to achieve his political ambition.

On August 10, 2022, the Middle East Eye said the Khalifa Haftar family could be considered a military commercial family.

His son, Saddam, besides being a military arm for his father, is more like a diplomatic envoy for his father, especially on trips to the UAE and “Israel,” according to the statements of an informed source to the British site.

Saddam is the one who is being prepared and promoted to military positions and handles the file of communication with the West and “Israel,” and is nominated by the Libyan and foreign circles to be his father’s candidate for the next presidency, although he is also a soldier and an American citizen.

Saddam also worked to extend his influence in the media, security, and most importantly, society. He also tried to attract international and regional support, a goal that was reflected in his visit to “Israel” in November 2021, where he asked for Israeli political and military support in exchange for future diplomatic relations between Israel and Libya.

The Washington Institute asserts that Haftar’s visit to “Israel” reflected Saddam and his advisors’ understanding of the international moment the Middle East is going through to join the Abraham Accords.

However, Saddam’s succession to his father is not certain at all. There are opponents of Saddam bequeathing the position of commander of his father’s army and not turning the army into a family legacy for Haftar and his sons.

Before Burns’ visit to Libya and his meeting with Haftar, an expert on Libyan affairs told Al-Estiklal that there were strong indications that Haftar’s son asked the Israelis to present his father’s candidacy to the Americans to find out their position so that a replacement from the family could be nominated if they refused.

He explained that Saddam Haftar’s chances are stronger than his father’s, despite his accusation of corruption and extravagance. Therefore, part of his visit to “Israel” was to market himself as a presidential candidate to replace his father if the Americans informed “Israel” that there is a veto over Haftar.

Nevertheless, it was remarkable that Al-Jazeera channel revealed, on January 20, 2023, the dictates of Burns to meet with Haftar, confirming that he had requested the exclusion of any of Haftar’s sons, especially Saddam, from the meeting, which may indicate reservations about Saddam’s succession to his father.

The battle of Haftar’s succession dates back to 2018 when it was rumored that he had suffered a stroke and had been transferred to a hospital in Paris for treatment on April 9, 2018.

What followed was the start of a regional and international diplomatic movement to arrange his succession, according to Agence France-Presse, on April 20, 2018.

Radio France International said that multiple meetings began in Libya and in some capitals involved in the crisis, such as Abu Dhabi, to study Haftar’s succession.