Qatar and Saudi Arabia Block France's Plan for Hezbollah President in Lebanon: What Happened?

Lebanon is currently witnessing a fast-paced political movement led primarily by France, with Qatar also joining in to accelerate negotiations taking place on various local and international levels. The aim is to reach a political settlement that leads to the election of a new president for the country.

Lebanon entered a period of vacancy in the presidency following the end of Michel Aoun's term in October 2022, while the parliament failed to elect his successor during 11 sessions, the last of which was on January 10, 2023.

 

The Parisian Invitation

The phone call that took place between French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on March 27, 2023, was the step that stirred the stagnant waters of the Lebanese presidential election.

A statement from the Elysee Palace stated that Macron and bin Salman expressed their shared concern about the situation in Lebanon and reiterated their commitment to work together to save the country from the deep crisis it is going through.

The day after, the candidate supported by Hezbollah for the Presidency of the Republic, former minister Suleiman Frangieh, arrived in Paris in response to an invitation from Patrick Durel, North Africa and Middle East adviser to the French presidency.

This was amidst conflicting information about the purpose of the invitation, as some Lebanese media outlets suggested that Paris would ask Frangieh to withdraw from the presidential race, while other media outlets spoke of guarantees that he would offer to present to Riyadh.

According to the local newspaper Annahar, a credible French authority, Frangieh provided a series of assurances to Durel during their meeting at the Elysee Palace on April 2, 2023, in the event of his successful bid for the presidency.

These guarantees include Frangieh's approach to governance, the form of the cabinet, and how Lebanon will get out from the economic and financial crisis that threatens what remains of the country and its institutions.

During his two-day visit, Frangieh's relationship with Hezbollah was one of the key topics of discussion, with extensive talks on the defensive strategy and weapons of the Shiite party. The newspaper quoted the same source as saying that progress has been made on the dialogue with Saudi Arabia regarding these guarantees, but Paris has not yet received a final Saudi response, and they continue to work on it.

Meanwhile, the pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al-Akhbar revealed that Frangieh met with high-level French officials, amid unconfirmed reports that Macron had met with the Lebanese presidential candidate.

Al-Akhbar reported on April 6, 2023, citing unnamed sources, that the French are considering a settlement that includes the positions of the presidency and the government.

It added that Paris has not heard from any Saudi official vetoing Frangieh's candidacy. But, Riyadh has many concerns and questions that need explanations and clarifications from the mentioned candidate.

Journalist Mayssam Rizk revealed in an article on April 3, 2023, in Al-Akhbar that there was an Egyptian initiative, according to political sources.

This initiative proposes forming a 5+1 group that aims to include Iran in the quintet that is responsible for researching the Lebanese file (America, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt), with meetings to be held in Riyadh as a positive and reassuring step for the kingdom.

Rizk also revealed that the high escalation from Samir Geagea (leader of the right-wing Christian Lebanese Forces party) against Frangieh came at the request of the Saudi ambassador in Beirut, Walid al-Bukhari.

She saw the Saudi position as within the framework of investing in Christian rejection of Frangieh's election, as escalation is needed at a time when negotiations are advancing.

Most Christian MPs reject Frangieh, while Hezbollah and its ally, the Shiite Amal Movement led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, endorse him for the presidency.

 

The Qatari Tour

In this context, the Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported on April 6, 2023, that Christian parties in Lebanon express their dissatisfaction with France's approach.

Son of former Lebanese President Bachir Gemayel, who was assassinated in September 1982 before taking office, added that France should return to its natural role as a supporter and loving mother of Lebanon, not of Iran's henchmen, and abandon the role of a broker that does not add something positive to its history.

On the other hand, as soon as presidential candidate Suleiman Frangieh set foot in Beirut on April 4, 2023, he was greeted by Qatari Minister of State Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi, who arrived on a one-day reconnaissance trip and met with a number of Lebanese political and religious officials.

The visit falls within the significant role that Doha has played as an "arbitrator of settlements" in Lebanon since the election of former President Michel Suleiman in 2008. Al-Khalifa represents Qatar in the so-called Quintet Group.

The Qatari minister and his accompanying delegation held a series of visits that included Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, and other ministers and officials.

In addition, al-Khulaifi met with the head of the parliamentary bloc of Hezbollah, MP Mohammad Raad.

He also met with the Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, the Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, and the Maronite Patriarch, Bechara Boutros al-Rahi.

Al-Khalifa also visited the leaders of the three right-wing Christian parties that almost completely monopolize Christian representation.

He visited the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, and the head of the Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel, in addition to the presidential candidate and head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Frangieh (Christian, center-right), although the latter was not on the Qatari envoy's schedule.

According to leaked media reports and information, the Qatari minister's rounds were aimed at exploring the opinions of various Lebanese parties, especially regarding the formation of the new government, the presidential elections, and the economic and financial situation.

 

Saudi Specifications

In the context of the international efforts to resolve the crisis in Lebanon, it can be observed that the Parisian initiative to obtain guarantees from the presidential candidate supported by Hezbollah, Suleiman Frangieh, in order to market them to Riyadh, was met with a counter-move from the latter in collaboration with Doha, represented by the visit of the Qatari minister to Beirut.

In between, there were Egyptian efforts to reconcile between the opposing factions, while Washington entered the crisis by imposing sanctions, on April 4, 2023, on Teddy and Raymond Zina Rahme, two Christian businessmen and close brothers to Frangieh.

This was considered an implicit American message rejecting the candidacy of Frangieh. Interestingly, the Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper, Al-Akhbar, was the mouthpiece for the French initiative to market Frangieh's candidacy, publishing several articles indicating the absence of Saudi opposition to his candidacy.

On the other hand, Asharq al-Awsat newspaper published several articles showing Saudi rejection of Frangieh and the Parisian efforts, highlighting the Christian street's displeasure with France, as well as demonstrating the differentiation of Riyadh and Doha from Paris in their position toward the Lebanese crisis as a whole.

Moreover, on April 5, 2023, the same newspaper published an article by journalist Thaer Abbas with a clear title that leaves no room for doubt: Lebanon faces the test of options — Riyadh will judge the projects, not the names.

The article is an interview with a senior Arab diplomat who was not named, presenting the Saudi position on the presidential election.

The information suggests that this diplomat is the Saudi ambassador to Beirut, Walid al-Bukhari, since he is the only one authorized to speak about the Saudi position.

In addition to being almost the only Arab ambassador who has direct contact with the Lebanese crisis, while other Arab ambassadors avoid Lebanese details, the Arab diplomat in his speech shows that "Riyadh is keen that any agreement cannot be built on the ruins of the interests of other Arab countries, whatever the expected results and that this is a legacy in Saudi foreign policy and a steady path."

The diplomat downplays the French initiative that stipulates the arrival of a president supported by Hezbollah in exchange for a prime minister representing the opposition forces.

He states clearly that Saudi Arabia will not engage in any exchange, and that it does not have preferred candidates for any of the vacant positions, or those that will be vacated in Lebanon.

According to the diplomat, the French exchange offer is no different from what happened after the Doha agreement in 2008, which ended with the overthrow of the former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in 2011, and also the deal to elect Michel Aoun as president in 2016.

He believes that the focus should be on the future project and the role of Lebanon, and if a solution like this is reached, then the president's name will be a detail.

The diplomat adds that Lebanon needs an economic rescue plan to lift it out of the spiral of financial and economic deterioration that cannot be implemented without the cooperation of all Lebanese components and adopting a true national approach to the disease and treatment.

He believes that this approach should not be based on factional foundations and narrow interests, nor on allowing attempts to drag the country into axes that distance it from its natural geographical and cultural position, in an explicit reference to Hezbollah.

In a direct message to those concerned, the diplomat says the Lebanese cannot look for imported solutions imposed on them from abroad. Nor can they rely on the cooperation of their surroundings if they make the wrong choices.