Escalation Platform: Will Iraq Become an Arena for Settling Scores Between Washington and Tehran?

With the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, and the entry of Iraqi factions into the conflict by bombing several US interests inside Iraq, the United States began launching strikes targeting sites belonging to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which is an official military formation within the Iraqi security apparatus.

On March 8, Captain Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the US Central Command, confirmed that his country had conducted military operations inside Iraq as part of Operation Epic Wrath.

“We conducted operations in Iraq in defense of US forces that were attacked by armed factions loyal to Iran,” he said.

Settling Scores

However, the United States did not claim responsibility for most of these attacks, especially those carried out by drones, which resulted in dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries among the PMF.

In a statement issued on March 12, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said he was closely monitoring and assessing the situation regarding the blatant attacks on positions held by Iraqi PMF units.

The statement added that this aggression is not merely a military breach, but a desperate attempt to sow discord, disrupt social peace, and undermine the security gains, emphasizing Iraq's refusal to be an arena for settling scores.

For his part, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji condemned what he described as the cowardly terrorist attack on the PMF in al-Qaim, which resulted in the martyrdom and injury of dozens of its members.

In a post on X on March 12, he affirmed that this targeting constitutes a flagrant attack and a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

On the same day, unidentified airstrikes targeted the headquarters of the 19th Brigade of the PMF in the Akashat area of Qaim, western Iraq, killing more than 30 members and wounding 65 others.

The PMF stated that the victims were killed while performing their national duty of protecting Iraq’s borders, preventing the infiltration of terrorist groups, and securing the border sector.

It emphasized that this attack represents a blatant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a direct targeting of an official security force belonging to the Iraqi state.

Other attacks also targeted PMF headquarters in the provinces of Anbar, Nineveh, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Baghdad, and Kirkuk.

Other brigades belonging to armed factions designated as terrorist organizations by the United States were also targeted, including: Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, the Badr Organization, Kataib Imam Ali, and Kataib Hezbollah.

Conversely, authorities in Iraqi Kurdistan, as well as the United States, accuse armed factions within the PMF of siding with Iran and carrying out attacks against American interests, military bases, and diplomatic missions on Iraqi soil.

True Crossroads

Regarding the repeated operations targeting the PMF and the possibility of them becoming an official American target, Iraqi affairs researcher Latif al-Mahdawi said: “The United States will continue to launch attacks on specific factions within the PMF that it believes are responsible for targeting its interests in Iraq.”

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, he explained that the PMF comprises more than 100 brigades, each representing an armed faction or formation affiliated with a political party, religious group, or even a tribal entity, in what is known as the Tribal Mobilization Forces.

The researcher clarified that the 19th Brigade belongs to the Ansar Allah al-Awfiya faction, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, as it is one of the factions known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.

He added that the 52nd Brigade, which was targeted in Kirkuk, belongs to the Badr Organization, while the 40th Brigade belongs to the Kataib al-Imam Ali faction.

He predicted the continued targeting of these brigades belonging to armed factions close to Iran, which the United States accuses of carrying out attacks against its interests in Iraq, considering it part of the war that Washington is waging against Tehran.

He pointed out that some of the attacks may be carried out by Israel inside Iraq, without an official announcement.

He indicated that there are signs of American-Israeli cooperation in targeting specific PMF sites, and that the Iraqi authorities are aware of this.

In the same vein, Iraqi political analyst Amin Nasser stated that Iraq stands today at the heart of the regional storm, noting that there is no longer any neutral ground in light of the ongoing conflict in the region.

He explained that the Iraqi arena includes several parties with differing stances on the war with Iran.

He clarified that some forces see the necessity of defending the Islamic Republic after the escalation of aggression against it, while other parties believe that Iraq's interest lies in strengthening relations with the United States.

He added that some Iraqi forces have made contact with Gulf states such as the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar, but have not made any contact with Iran, while a third group is observing the situation from the sidelines.

He pointed out that Iraq stands today at a true crossroads due to the loss of national identity and the absence of unified official political decision-making, explaining that the multiplicity of internal positions reflects the lack of a unified vision for managing the crisis.

Regarding the attacks targeting PMF headquarters, he clarified that these actions were carried out with the knowledge of the Iraqi government and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.

He noted that he had been officially informed of these developments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Tom Barrack.

He added that the relevant parties were aware in advance of the possibility of targeting PMF headquarters, warning of additional targets that could be bombed in the coming days by “Israel” and the United States, given the continued military escalation in the region.

Urgent Dismantling

While the U.S. is launching attacks against PMF sites, the US State Department has called on the Baghdad government to take urgent measures to dismantle the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq completely and to stop their ongoing attacks targeting international and local interests.

Reports indicated that the U.S. strongly condemned the terrorist attacks launched by Iran and its supported militias against infrastructure in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, holding Tehran and its allied armed groups directly responsible for this escalation.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had a telephone conversation on March 9 with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, during which they discussed the latest developments on the ground and the ongoing escalation in the Middle East. 

According to reports, Rubio strongly condemned the terrorist attacks perpetrated by Iran and its allied militias.

During the call, he also stressed the need for the Iraqi government to take immediate action, including the complete dismantling of these militias.

Rubio emphasized the importance of ensuring that Iraqi territory is not used as a launching pad to threaten the United States or the security of the region.

This comes at a time of heightened security tensions in Iraq following attacks on the US consulate in Erbil and the US embassy in Baghdad, coinciding with attacks on oil tankers.

These developments present the Iraqi government with increasing challenges in controlling armed factions and protecting international missions.

On March 14, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad issued an urgent security warning urging American citizens in Iraq to leave the country immediately, citing escalating regional tensions.

In a statement, the embassy explained that the warning came in light of the unstable security situation and ongoing military escalation in the region, following a drone attack on the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad that caused damage to satellite communication systems.

According to Iraqi sources, the drone targeted a Giraffe-1X satellite communications system located within the embassy compound, which is used for providing and exchanging data via satellite.