Vladimir Shumakov to Al-Estiklal: Putin Instilled Fear in Russia's Elite After Killing Prigozhin

The Ukrainian political expert and diplomat Vladimir Shumakov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin's revenge against the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in this manner instills fear within the Russian military and political elite.

In an exclusive interview with Al-Estiklal, Shumakov explained that Putin is the only one who decides whether to continue or end the war with Ukraine. Currently, it is not in his favor to end it, as he plans to seize all of Ukraine, not just the south and east.

Regarding the future of this confrontation, Shumakov clarified that this war will be long-term, and Ukraine's primary goal is to expel the Russians from its territory and join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to protect itself from future attacks.

In his interview, he also addressed several important issues related to the war and the developments on the front lines between Kyiv and Moscow.

Shumakov has held various positions in the Ukrainian diplomatic service, including serving as an advisor to the Kyiv Embassy in Libya between 2004 and 2007. He currently holds the position of Ukraine's representative to the Arab League.

 

Assassination of Prigozhin

How do you see the manner in which Russian leader Vladimir Putin gets rid of Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Vladimir Shumakov: Putin's regime is behind the assassination of Prigozhin, and the confirmed reason for this is his rebellion in the last week of June 2023 against the Russian military leadership and his seizure of the city of Rostov, which dealt a powerful blow to Putin.

Prigozhin's forces posed a direct threat to the autocratic regime led by Putin, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu considered Prigozhin his number one enemy.

The manner in which he was killed confirms Putin's revenge against him for his defiance, rebellion, and betrayal.

He publicly humiliated Putin, as this rebellion created panic among the Russian military elite. However, Putin's revenge in this manner instills fear within the Russian military elite that anyone who betrays will face such consequences.

What is your interpretation of the assassination of Prigozhin at this particular time?

Vladimir Shumakov: As known, there are statements by Putin from twenty years ago in which he stated that he never tolerates betrayal, and Prigozhin's rebellion was a painful and humiliating blow to him.

It is also certain that Prigozhin had many enemies; he was a former prisoner and a former criminal, and before his death, he was a war criminal.

However, regardless of this, he was Putin's number one enemy, and his assassination is Putin's message to the Russian military and political elite that any future rebellion and disobedience will be met with severe punishment.

Why did Zelenskyy rush to deny Ukraine's involvement in Prigozhin's killing?

Vladimir Shumakov: Ukraine did not assassinate Prigozhin, yet there is no doubt that Ukraine is the primary beneficiary of this assassination due to the threat posed by Wagner mercenaries on the battlefield, where Ukraine managed to capture the city of Bakhmut after the Russian army's failure.

Prigozhin was obsessed with securing himself and was always cautious in his movements.

However, it is notable that the head of security for the Wagner company was also on board this plane.

There are also rumors among Russian military personnel that this plane was shot down with an S-300 missile, and there is a significant distance between Ukrainian territory and the Russian city where the plane crashed.

In addition, there are 3 Russian missile launcher batteries and an S-300 anti-aircraft battery, making it difficult to target the plane from Ukraine.

It should also be noted that Prigozhin had many enemies and critics among the Russian military elite, and his top enemy was Putin, as well as his defense minister and chief of staff.

There are allegations against Prigozhin that he shot down 5 Russian helicopters and killed 13 Russian soldiers, as well as shooting down a Russian Il-22 aircraft.

We can see that inside Russia, there is no rule of law, and the prosecution did not file charges against Prigozhin for his crimes because the only law in this comprehensive Russian system is Putin's word.

The question here is who Prigozhin was and what he was before. The answer is that he was a former prisoner and a criminal. However, Putin brought him close and elevated him to a high level, involving him in the Russian military and political elite, but in the end, he betrayed him.

 

Frontline Developments

How do you assess the evolving situation on the front lines between Moscow and Kyiv?

Vladimir Shumakov: The Ukrainian armed forces have penetrated the first Russian defense lines in the Zaporizhia Oblast and recently managed to liberate the strategic Ropotin village despite Russian control.

Although the Ukrainian forces breached the first line, it is extremely challenging to overcome the vast number of mines planted by Russia in the occupied Ukrainian territories, at a rate of 5 mines per square meter.

This has turned these areas into fortified castles, in addition to the trenches, where the Russian occupiers have deployed a large number of their troops.

Ukraine has surpassed Russia in terms of drone strikes and artillery weaponry. Ukraine has acquired a significant amount of highly advanced Western weapons, which is why we call it an artillery war.

Let's not forget the successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Bakhmut region and elsewhere, thwarting Russia's attempts to launch a counter-attack in the Kupiansk area, which Putin seeks to seize for revenge.

However, Ukraine has successfully repelled all Russian attacks in that region, and Russia has failed to seize it.

Do you believe that the Russian magic has backfired on Putin with the ongoing Ukrainian attacks on sensitive areas in Moscow?

Vladimir Shumakov: Certainly, the Russian magic has backfired on the sorcerer Putin, and there have been repeated painful setbacks for the Russian bear through the Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Moscow, even targeting the Kremlin itself, where Putin resides.

Thus, the arrows of war have turned toward Russia, and Ukraine carries out intensive drone attacks on various Russian airports in Moscow and elsewhere. Additionally, the Russian fleet in the Black Sea is under attack, enabling Ukraine to impose an aerial and maritime blockade on the Russian enemy.

Although 30% of Ukrainian drones target Russian military infrastructure inside Russia, civilians and residential areas in Russia are not on Ukraine's target list. Nevertheless, it is expected that some shell fragments may accidentally fall on residential areas.

What is the significance of Russia displaying destructive weapons and equipment in the heart of Kyiv on Ukraine's Independence Day in front of thousands?

Vladimir Shumakov: There is no doubt that Russia has committed war crimes and genocide in Ukraine, killing thousands of civilians and continuing to shell Ukrainian cities every day, including the capital, Kyiv.

However, thanks to American Patriot missile batteries, Ukraine can now intercept Russian missiles targeting Kyiv and other areas.

There is ample evidence of the Russian occupation committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine, and the United Nations and representatives from the International Criminal Court are documenting these crimes in real-time.

Russia will be brought to trial one day, and it will not escape such crimes. Importantly, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin as an international war criminal in February 2023.

 

International Relations

How do you see Arab mediation through the Jeddah conference, which proposed a vision for intervening to end the Russian–Ukrainian war?

Vladimir Shumakov: I am generally pessimistic, to be frank, about any mediation, because Vladimir Putin holds the decision-making power regarding the continuation or cessation of the war with Ukraine.

It is not in Putin's interest to end this war now because he plans to seize all of Ukraine, not just the south of Ukraine.

Putin seeks vengeance against Ukraine for breaking free from Russian influence, and he intends to make its fate one of destruction and devastation. Through this, he aims to send a message to other countries that might contemplate breaking free from Russian influence, warning them that they will meet the same fate as Ukraine.

Even if there were 100 mediators, the war will not end or cease without Putin's order. The Russian economy has been transformed into a long-term war economy.

China is the only mediator able to compel Putin to end this war, but unfortunately, China leans towards Russia. Ukraine rejected China's plan, which called for freezing the conflict as a solution to end the war.

Russia will use the currently occupied Ukrainian territories as a platform for future attacks. Despite Putin's significant failures in this war, he remains determined to occupy all of Ukraine.

How do you perceive Russian–Turkish relations in light of escalating tensions over the Crimean Peninsula?

Vladimir Shumakov: We say that whoever controls the Crimean Peninsula controls the Black Sea. Russia claims that Crimea belongs to it, and Russia previously occupied Crimea in 1779, destroying the Tatar Kingdom at that time.

To this day, a large number of Muslim Tatars reside in that region, and they are very closely related to the Turkish people.

Russia has been oppressing the Tatar population since its occupation of Crimea in 2014, and President Erdogan warned Putin about the continued oppression against the Crimean people.

Currently, we see that the Ukrainian army is shelling Russian military infrastructure in the Crimea, and they successfully landed Ukrainian forces in the Crimea for a brief period before leaving the island.

This landing was a blow to the Russian army, indicating its inability to protect the territories it had occupied.

This sends a message to the Ukrainian people in Crimea that the Ukrainian army will return to liberate them from Russian occupation.

What is the future of Ukrainian grain exports in light of Turkiye and the United Nations' efforts?

Vladimir Shumakov: In general, Ukraine does not need Russia in its grain agreements. I believe that negotiating with a terrorist state and a sponsor of terrorism is nearly impossible. However, Ukraine needs protection for its ships departing from Odesa ports.

Currently, Russia does not attack Ukrainian commercial ships, but it has changed its strategy and started destroying the infrastructure of Ukrainian ports, including the recent destruction of approximately 250,000 tons of grain in Odesa.

This is a terrorist act, causing suffering to more than 500 million people worldwide who depend on Ukrainian grain. Halting Ukrainian grain exports will result in a 15% increase in global grain prices.

In the future, global prices will rise further and will be unacceptable for impoverished countries in Africa, creating an atmosphere of instability worldwide.

Ukraine is currently exploring new ways to export grain through Belgium or other European cities.

 

The Future of War

Where will the future of the war end with the open Western support for Ukraine?

Vladimir Shumakov: This war will be long-term, and Ukraine's main goal is to expel the Russians from its territories and join NATO to protect itself from future Russian bombings of its cities, possibly in a year or even five years.

There is also a dilemma because Russia has occupied Ukrainian territories, annexed them, and changed its constitution to consider those provinces as Russian lands.

Now, Putin is attacking the city of Kherson, claiming it is Russian territory after changing Russia's constitution. These are crimes against humanity and violations of international law.

In any case, the Ukrainian army is making every effort to drive the Russians out of Ukrainian territories and join NATO because it is the only guarantee that Ukraine will not be attacked by Russia in the future.

This is the golden formula that ensures Ukraine's protection against Russian violations of its territorial integrity in the future.

The world should know that Russia did not attack Ukrainian territory because of the NATO issue. Ukraine was not a candidate for NATO, and the Secretary-General of NATO said ten years ago that it would take time for Ukraine to join NATO. However, Russia wanted to discipline Ukraine for breaking away from Russian influence by destroying its overall infrastructure.

Putin is sending a warning through Ukraine to other countries considering breaking away from Russian influence, signaling that destruction and devastation will be their fate.

There will be rivers of blood and tears for children and women and tons of rubble in all the cities where Russia has completely destroyed 12 towns in the Donbas region alone.