Scholz’ Government in Trouble: How the Far-Right AfD Caused a Political Earthquake in Eastern Germany

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won by a large margin in regional elections in the state of Thuringia, while coming in second behind the conservatives in the eastern German state of Saxony, achieving historic results that represent a setback for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition.

The AfD’s victory in Thuringia is a first in the country since the end of World War II, even if it is unlikely to take over regional power, as all other parties have refused to form a coalition with it.

The AfD's results in Thuringia and Saxony reflect a major shift in German voters' attitudes, especially in the eastern states that are struggling with economic and social challenges, in addition to raising questions about the future of democracy and social coexistence in the country.

In addition, these results may push traditional parties to reconsider their policies and rhetoric to regain voters' trust, which may lead to fundamental changes in political orientations and future strategies.

The elections in the two states were held in a tense atmosphere, about a week after three people were killed in a stabbing attack in the western city of Solingen.

Major Breakthrough

The AfD, which is critical of the refugee policy and whose links to the Kremlin raise suspicions, has won a landslide victory in the state of Thuringia, beating its rivals by a wide margin.

The AfD came in first in Thuringia with 33.1% of the vote, ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which won 24.3% of the vote.

In Saxony, former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party came in a narrow lead, winning 31.7% of the vote, while the AfD came in a close second (31.4%).

The new far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) also made a major breakthrough, winning more than 10% of the vote in both states and could become a potential kingmaker in shaping the future regional governments of Thuringia and Saxony.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which is led by a former member of East Germany’s communist party,

The alliance was founded in January by Sahra Wagenknecht, a former member of East Germany’s communist party.

Both the AfD and the BSW have won over half of the voters in the eastern states with their aggressive rhetoric against immigration and calls for an end to Berlin’s arms shipments to Kyiv.

Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, announced that his party intended to talk to all parties about forming a working majority in Thuringia.

He stressed the need to respect the will of the voters, adding that politics would not exist without the AfD.

Turning Point

The results also showed that the government coalition, which is made up of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), suffered a major setback a year before the 2025 legislative elections.

The three parties in the ruling coalition combined won barely 10% of the vote in Thuringia and 13% in Saxony, prompting Scholz to say the results were worrying for Germany as a whole and bitter for the SPD.

The Greens will be out of the Thuringian parliament, and the FDP will have no representatives in any of the regional assemblies after the elections.

The defeat also widened the rifts within the ruling coalition, whose members spent most of their three-year term in power arguing with each other and trying to defend the interests of their core voters.

It also reignited secret discussions within the SPD about whether to dismiss Scholz from the chancellorship in order to save the party’s rating in polls conducted ahead of the Bundestag elections a year ago.

Leading figures in the SPD insisted that the coalition would remain intact, with Scholz retaining the party’s support.

Manuela Schwesig, chief minister of the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, said that Scholz would do well to focus on maintaining cohesion within the government.

Meanwhile, Wolfgang Kubicki, a senior FDP parliamentarian, said that his party should reconsider remaining in Scholz's coalition.

Omid Nouripour, co-leader of Greens, which lost all its seats in the region, described the results as a turning point for the country.

Complex Coalitions

The latest results pose a major challenge to forming stable governments in both Thuringia and Saxony, as traditional parties refuse to enter into coalitions with the AfD, which would complicate the situation and increase the likelihood of early elections or fragile minority governments.

In turn, German chancellor Olaf Scholz urged other parties to block the AfD from governing by maintaining a so-called firewall against it.

He added that all democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists.

In contrast, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, said that voters in Thuringia and Saxony had given her party a very clear mandate to govern.

The parties were urged to ignore Scholz’s call for coalitions without the AfD, saying doing so would undermine the democratic participation of large sections of the population.

The second-largest party, the CDU, has made clear it will not consider governing with the far right.

Without the support of other parties, the AfD cannot govern Thuringia.

But with over 30% of the vote in Thuringia, the AfD has a so-called blocking minority, meaning it will be able to stop the appointment of new judges or any constitutional change.

On September 22, regional elections will be held in the eastern state of Brandenburg after the elections in Saxony and Thuringia.

As is the case there, the AfD is leading in the polls, with the SPD coming in close behind.

The SPD party will do everything it can to maintain calm in the weeks before these elections, as it has a lot at stake in Brandenburg.

“Despite the poor results in the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, the German Chancellor can count on the support of his party,” Mr. Bishr Ahmad, a journalist based in Germany, told Al-Estiklal.

“However, calls for Scholz’s dismissal are expected to increase within the SPD if Dietmar Woedke, who has been in office for 11 years, fails to win re-election in Brandenburg,” he said.

Mr. Ahmad also pointed out that none of the three ruling parties can allow their coalition to collapse, noting that if early parliamentary elections are held, these parties will not get a majority as of the current situation, and the winners will be the AfD and the CDU.