Military Mobilization; Is China Turning Its Threats of Invading Taiwan Into Reality?

Russia's Lenta.ru newspaper reported on the military conflict between China and Taiwan, and the former's desperate efforts to bring the latter into it amid talk of a close war between them.

The newspaper explained in an article by Angelica Berezhnaya that the Chinese Communist Party reconsidered Taiwan after dealing with civil protests in Hong Kong and deprived the region of political autonomy.

The island is the last autonomous region in China, whose lack of control is a threat to its legitimacy.

However, China's "aggressive actions" against Hong Kong put an end to Beijing's diplomatic efforts and exacerbated Taiwan's desire for independence.

 

Threat of Invasion

China is increasingly threatening Taiwan with a military invasion, upgrading military bases and conducting large-scale exercises to seize the island as the Chinese Air Force regularly invades its airspace.

Against the backdrop of the increasing military activity of the People's Republic of China, Australia, Britain and the United States established a military alliance called "AUKUS" on September 15, 2021.

One of the alliance's objectives is to counter the Chinese threat in the Asia-Pacific region and protect Taiwan.

"Is China ready for a strong solution to the Taiwan issue, what are the consequences of such a move and what are the chances that the latter will become an independent state?" asked the paper.

The author replied that relations between China and Taiwan escalated to a maximum in 2020.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to end the idea of the island's secession and insists on peaceful unification, the principle of "One Country—Two Systems."

At the same time, Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen is announcing serious preparations for an asymmetric war with China.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army sent 150 aircraft into the island's airspace in October 2021, including bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads and early warning aircraft.

China has declared its intentions "peaceful," but plans to take Taiwan, highlighting the importance of future military exercises in large-scale amphibious operations, the paper says.

According to Xiao Guang, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Chinese State Council, suppressing attempts to achieve independence "will ensure the safety and well-being" of Taiwanese.

"Why is China's sharp military readiness towards the island?" asked Angelica.

Beijing and Taipei have agreed that China has been a single entity since 1992, but now the feelings of the Taiwanese people have changed dramatically.

Taiwan's Progressive Democratic Party, which came to power in 2016 thanks to the current President, rejected previous agreements and initiated a fateful decision, destroying the balance of friendship with China.

According to the Chinese leadership, the Taiwanese authorities have crossed the border. Angelica commented in her article that the Chinese mainland president had never been able to show Taiwanese a positive image of a common future.

Beijing has essentially exhausted all its options for diplomatic pressure on Taipei, the paper said.

 

Desperate Efforts

From the point of view of the Taiwan authorities, the reaction to the demonstrations in Hong Kong and the infringement of its laws in 2019 is a denial of the autonomous region.

It therefore rejected China's proposed approach, called "One Country—Two Systems." This situation has led to most of Beijing's "arguments" not being introduced into bilateral dialogue.

However, China cannot back down on the issue of state unification, as this not only leads to strategic losses in the Asia-Pacific region, but can push for serious internal political division.

The newspaper noted that former leaders stressed the importance of China providing a solution to this problem, the first of which was Mao Zedong (founder of the Communist Party of China), and that defeat in this regard means facing an internal crisis of legitimacy.

According to the author, controlling Taiwan will give China access to the most important centre in the electronics industry and ensure a dominant position in the region.

By gaining a foothold on the island, the Chinese armed forces will be able to control the sea routes linking Japan and Korea to the Indian Ocean and the Middle East.

Another scenario expected was that relations between Beijing and Taipei would develop, but U.S. involvement in the conflict prevented it from happening.

Washington sympathized with Taiwan's hopes for freedom and independence and delivered a bold speech to the island's government, which led to its sense of security due to promises of protection if China launched a "military aggression," the Russian newspaper estimated.

According to The National Interest, in 2020, China has allocated 25 modern war ships, including cruisers, destroyers and submarines, and already has two Hainan-class global amphibious attack helicopter carriers.

Only one Chinese landing ship is capable of transporting about 1,000 Marines, weapons, more than 20 helicopters and three ships, as well as launching airborne and even underwater drones for direct surveillance. 

China continued to modernize military air bases. During the 2020 co-orthotic virus outbreak, aircraft shelters and reinforced ammunition depots were built in Fujian Province, across the strait from the island.

According to satellite images at Longtian Air Base, the Chinese improved air defences, expanded runways and updated bunkers.

Similar construction was also seen at a nearby base in Huyan, 300 kilometres from Chiashan Air Base and located underground, the paper said.