Why Are Americans Moving Away from the Idea of Procreation?

U.S. births declined in 2023 to their lowest level in over four decades, extending a 20-year trend of declining birth rates among Americans.

The Guttmacher Institute has unveiled new insights from the Monthly Abortion Provision Study, a research initiative launched in 2023 to provide monthly estimates of abortion numbers within the formal US healthcare system.

The latest data spans January to October 2023 and includes facility-based procedural and medication abortions, as well as those provided via telehealth.

The first ten months of 2023 saw an estimated 878,000 abortions in the formal US health care system, marking 94% of the 930,000 abortions reported in 2020.

With an average of 88,000 abortions per month, the 2023 total is poised to surpass the 2020 figures.

These numbers likely underrepresent the actual increase, as they do not account for abortions outside the formal health care system, which have likely risen following new state bans and restrictions.

Driving Factors

Abortions were already on the rise in many states before the recent data was provided, as Guttmacher’s 2020 Abortion Provider Census indicated an 8% increase from 2017 to 2020, reversing a three-decade trend of declining abortion rates.

Moreover, interstate travel for abortion care has grown, facilitated by support networks like abortion funds that help patients overcome financial and logistical barriers.

Access to abortion has expanded in states that enacted protective abortion policies, while Telehealth has made abortion services more accessible.

“An increase in abortion numbers is a positive development if it means people are getting the health care they want and need,” said Isaac Maddow-Zimet, Guttmacher data scientist and project lead.

However, despite the rise in abortions compared to 2020, many in 2023 faced significant barriers, often traveling across state lines for care.

Not everyone could access care, and the burdens have disproportionately affected already marginalized communities, worsening existing inequalities in abortion access.

Population Trend

Preliminary data from the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reveals a 2% drop in total births for 2024, reaching 3.59 million.

This is the lowest level since 1979, when approximately 3.4 million babies were born.

Brady Hamilton, an NCHS demographer and lead author of the report, noted that the rate of women of childbearing age having babies is the lowest since the center began compiling statistics.

This decline mirrors global trends, especially in wealthier nations, where economic instability and uncertainties like the pandemic discourage childbearing.

While countries such as France and China have implemented measures to encourage higher birth rates, U.S. birth rates have been suppressed by factors such as the lack of paid family leave and soaring health costs.

Young adults in the U.S. are increasingly making deliberate decisions about family planning, choosing to wait until they can financially support themselves and their children, according to Karen Guzzo, a demographer and director of the Carolina Population Center.

Her research indicates that Americans cite economic pressures, job instability, political polarization, student debt, healthcare access, climate change, and global conflicts as reasons for delaying or forgoing having children.

The NCHS report, based on birth certificate data, provides a snapshot of U.S. population trends but does not delve into underlying factors like childcare costs, Hamilton explained.

While there was a brief increase in birth rates before the 2008 financial crisis, overall rates have declined by 11% since 2000.

Despite economic recovery since the Great Recession, young people face increased financial burdens, such as student debt.

Additionally, the instability and lack of paid leave associated with gig economy jobs further hinder family planning, Guzzo noted.

The data also show a decline in unplanned pregnancies. Teen birth rates fell by 2% from the previous year, marking a 68% decline since 2007.

The birth rate for women aged 20-24 has nearly halved since 2007, reaching a record low of 55.4 births per 1,000 women.

While peak birth rates have shifted to women in their 30s and 40s, these rates also declined in 2023 compared to the previous year. Hispanic women were the exception, with a 1% increase in births.

The U.S. birth rate has remained below the replacement level since 2007, indicating a reliance on immigration to maintain current population levels. The NCHS plans to finalize the 2023 birth data this summer.

Comprehensive policy changes could potentially reverse this trend by enhancing financial stability and improving families' living standards, Guzzo suggested.

Mirroring Challenges

The declining fertility rate mirrors the current social and economic challenges. "For the first time in our nation's history, a 30-year-old man or woman isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. That is the social compact breaking down," Scott Galloway, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, stated in an interview with Fortune.

He noted that Millennials and Gen Zers are contending with sky-high mortgage rates, soaring home prices, and inflation, which are delaying traditional milestones such as having children.

Devika Rao, an NGO policy associate, says that women across the U.S. are also grappling with growing concerns over access to reproductive healthcare, the politicized debate over abortion, economic uncertainties, insufficient rights for working parents, and mounting fears about the planet's future.

According to Rao, these factors are leading many to choose to remain childless. Despite efforts by countries like France and China to encourage couples to have children, U.S. birth rates are being hindered by the lack of paid family leave and escalating healthcare costs.

But The U.S. is not alone in facing population issues. A study published in The Lancet predicts that 198 out of 204 countries will likely see population decline by 2100.

"The implications are immense," Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, co-lead author of the study, told Al Jazeera. "These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganizing societies."