Jeune Afrique: The Tunisian Coup Could Lead to a Civil War or a Dictatorial Regime

A French newspaper warned of Tunisian President Kais Saied's implementation of the Egyptian scenario of the coup, and called on Tunisians for a dialogue to save the country from potential catastrophic scenarios.

The French magazine "Jeune Afrique" said that the decision of Tunisian President Said, who is supposed to "save Tunisia", after granting himself great powers; It may lead to civil war or the establishment of a dictatorship.

Saied’s decision to dismiss the Prime Minister, Hisham al-Mashishi, and to freeze the activities and powers of Parliament for a period of 30 days; Lifting the immunity of the deputies, and the legal procedures against those whose immunity prevented their trial.

Jeune Afrique believes that "no matter how harsh they seem, the decisions announced by Tunisian President Kais Saied on July 25 were inevitable and expected.

It considered it "as a result of arrogance, cynicism, and the incompetence of the rulers and the entire political class, which has proven incapable of facing the economic and social problems in which the country stumbled for months and even years."

It pointed out that the health crisis contributed to exacerbating the difficulties, which culminated on this anniversary of the proclamation of the republic, as well as the anniversary of the assassination of MP Mohamed Brahmi, whose perpetrators have not been held accountable since 2013.

 

Saied’s Authority

Concerning the possible situation, Jeune Afrique believes that "from now on, the executive power will be exercised by the head of state with the assistance of the head of government who appoints himself."

The judiciary is placed under the authority of Kais Saied, to ensure that all blocked files are opened, and until further notice, authority is exercised on the basis of presidential decrees.

Kais Saied confirmed that these decisions were preceded, as required by the constitution, by consulting the Prime Minister and the Speaker of Parliament, and that he pledges not to do anything outside the scope of constitutional legitimacy.

For their part, Rached Ghannouchi and his Ennahda party and allies denounced the coup and said they were determined to defend the legitimacy and achievements of the 2011 revolution.

"They refuse to freeze the activities of Parliament, and declare that they are in public session until the end of the state of emergency."

 

War or Dictatorship?

According to Jeune Afrique, "if the two sides stick to their positions, the country risks sliding into a civil war with an unexpected outcome."

"If there is nothing to prevent Kais Saied from implementing his announced project since his candidacy for the presidency, this will be the end of the democratic transition," asserts Jeune Afrique, adding: "After that, we will risk seeing the Egyptian scenario in Tunisia."

Abdel Fattah Sisi exploited his coup against the Muslim Brotherhood to seize power and establish a dictatorship worse than any country has known; A dictatorship that has lasted since 2013, and political and civil opposition have not escaped it.

The French magazine concerned with African affairs, describes the Tunisian reality, saying: "We are facing an unconstitutional coup, which has all the manifestations of a coup and reminds others: Ben Ali's coup against Bourguiba, or Sisi against Morsi in particular."

 

To Avoid the Worst

It considers that the national dialogue proposed by the Tunisian General Labor Union, which neither the head of state nor the Islamists and their allies wanted, is not a constitutional solution, and this is the reason for its failure.

Kais Saied denies the charge of the coup, recalling that Ennahda and its allies have violated the constitution and blocked the outlets of institutions.

Jeune Afrique believes that "however, the mistakes of Islamists should not be used as an excuse to impose a state of emergency that might lead to the establishment of a dictatorship."

It considers that "if it is planned to freeze the activities of Parliament for a period of 30 days, there is no specific time limit regarding the exceptional period, which is supposed to continue until the removal of the reasons," according to the terms of the Saied decree.

"Since the causes of the crisis are structural, there is no guarantee that this situation will not continue," it stressed.

It added that "democratic forces and civil society must mobilize and use their weight to avoid the two worst scenarios facing the country: civil war and the establishment of dictatorship.

"They must demand a road map to get out of the state of emergency, and to organize elections capable of providing Tunisia with democratic institutions capable of managing it and getting it out of the impasse," according to Jeune Afrique.

Tunisians call on for a true national dialogue from which temporary institutions will emerge and can supervise the upcoming elections and reform the social contract, believing that "these are conditions for ending a 10-year crisis."

 

Saied Promises

"For the time being, the Islamists seem to be giving up and showing no resistance to avoid the danger of civil war," the magazine said.

For his part, the Head of State assured the representatives of various civil society organizations and various state constituent bodies who received them at the palace, as well as to Tunisia's partners, that "liberties and the foundations of the democratic system will be guaranteed."

He also assured them that "the legal measures envisaged against officials involved in corruption cases and various crimes will be carried out in accordance with the law and respect for human rights."

While travel abroad is prohibited for politicians and businessmen, there have been no arrests so far.

However, vigilance is necessary if we are to have a guarantee that we will emerge as quickly as possible from the state of emergency and restore democratic life, so as to shut the door once and for all to dictatorship and absolutism.